i hope it doesn't come to armed combat. [ if it does, even more unfortunately, imo, right wing populists have a lot more guns and know better how to use them.]

my hope is that somehow progressivism and populism join forces. i doubt eliz warren can herself get elected, but she captures that idea of a more class-based, as opposed to culture-based, coalition.

in the meantime, democratic candidates are so focused on winning the left end of the party in order to capture the nomination, that they risk losing the moderate suburban women who flipped the house of representatives. [eliminate all private insurance at a stroke, abortion without constraint or qualms, essentially open borders, healthcare for illegals without mention of e.g. veterans' needs or homelessness, and so on]. that worries me. not that those swing-voter women will necessarily vote for trump, but they might well stay home on election day.

i just finished reading gavekal's jan '19 book, "clash of empires." i highly recommend this short, extremely interesting book. it predicts [as i have for years] that the usd global reserve reserve system will break apart into 3 regional blocs, each with its own reserve currency. it suggests that the current usd strength/usd shortage is based on large dollar liabilities that were accumulated under the fading usd gobal reserve system. when those dollar liabilities are paid down or written off, the transition will accelerate.

they note that in recent years the volatility of gold denominated in renminbi has been very constrained, as has the volatility of other asian currencies [so. korean won, thai bhat, phillipine peso, taiwan dollar, etc denominated in renmenbi]. the chinese are creating a defacto asian bretton woods ii, centered on the renmenbi which convertible to gold at a volatility-constrained floating rate via the hong kong exchange. meanwhile, you have oil convertible to renmenbi via the shanghai exchange. what is emerging is an asian currency bloc independent of the weaponized usd system.

when that occurs cannot, imo, be predicted. but one can watch for signs of the turn.

btw, if the renminbi is almost price-fixed to gold, an investment in gold is almost price-fixed to renminbi.