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  1. #25
    Join Date
    Aug 2007
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    Default Re: the strong usd

    Quote Originally Posted by dcarrigg View Post
    13 - Trump years
    Long term plan to 2025: Align manufacturing, R&D, and defense sector. Reform the military. Establish a soup-to-nuts domestic-sourced defense industry. Short term plan to increase role globally in production chains and international investment.


    I mean, when they pick something, they seem to really throw everything at it. So it will be interesting to watch this new one play out. The pivot to world power is obviously planned to begin around 2025.

    Propaganda is good. China's biggest problem today is demographics and they haven't found a solution yet.

    China's working population has peaked in 2015-2016, the rapid drop in consumption growth data coincides with this change. My sources are telling me that the bulk of discretionary consumption un China are by 20 something "adult kids" in single child familes (virtually every family).

    Although working, they are still being supported by their parents in their 50s (they are still working) - yes, many receive lots of extra cash from their parents - not surprising as single childs are much dotted, especially sons. Living with their parents, they don't need to pay rent so this adds to their disposable income - https://www.nytimes.com/2018/08/20/b...harmacist.html

    As their parents age, retire and become bogged down by their own medical bills, this source of additional disposable income will dry out. This is when China's consumer spending will fall like a rock. It could come as early as 2025 and there is no solution.

    Trade war or not, China's consumer market will stall after 2025 or earlier.
    Last edited by touchring; 09-16-18 at 12:40 AM.

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