In looking at the contest rules, I can't tell that Itulip's (Eric's) October 2006 prediction ( ) meets your contest criteria. As far as I can tell, the only date of the recession prediction in October 2006 was "2007." Can you direct us to an Itulip link in October 2006 that gives a 4q 2007 prediction? Not trying to take anything away from iTulip's great analysis or conclusions, which have been spot-on; but I'd like to see the specifics.

Thanks for all the great information- keep up the good work. As for the contest, hope I find an earlier recession prediction as I could really use that gold to help pay my negative amortization ARM (kidding).