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Thread: Contest: Most Accurate Forecast of the Current Recession

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    Default Contest: Most Accurate Forecast of the Current Recession

    Most Accurate Forecast of the Current Recession

    Inflation at highest rate in 26 years
    Jan. 16, 2008 (Denver Post)

    Signs that the U.S. economy is headed toward recession — or is already there — gathered steam Tuesday amid a maelstrom of reports that drove the Dow Jones industrial average down 277 points to a nine-month low.

    Retail sales plunged in December, Citigroup announced the biggest quarterly loss in its 196-year history and thousands more job cuts were revealed, rattling Wall Street and pushing the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note near a four-year low.

    Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan was quoted as saying the economy may already be in a downturn, and one analyst called it "almost indisputable now" that the economy contracted in December.


    The recession is not limited to the US.
    Singapore economy contracted in Q4

    Singapore's economy shrank in the fourth quarter of 2007 as manufacturing growth shuddered to a near halt, official data showed Wednesday, raising concerns about the Asian impact of US economic woe.
    The US recession we forecast to start in Q4 2007 started December 2007 as our October 2006 forecast projected, more than a year before the event. We also projected that the recession was to be attended with high inflation rates, and here they are, the highest "in 26 years."

    In a shameless effort to publicize our spot-on forecast, we are running a new contest.

    The first registered iTulip member to find an equally or more accurate forecast wins an English gold sovereign. The standard for the English monetary system for centuries, the gold sovereign contains 0.2354 oz of gold. At the time of this posting, a gold sovereign sells for $231 retail in the US.

    To qualify, the forecast needs to meet the following criteria to meet or beat the iTulip forecast for accuracy:
    1. Must be posted on or before Oct. 27, 2006 when the iTulip forecast was posted. Date of posting must be provable using archive.org.
    2. Must clearly state that the recession will begin in Q4 2007 not "may begin" or "might if X, Y, Z occurs" but a definitive "will begin" in Q4 2007.
    3. Most clearly specify the quarter Q4 not any other quarter in 2007 or the entire year 2007.
    4. Must clearly specify that inflation conditions will be high going into the recession and use the term "stagflation" to describe the conditions.
    5. The forecast cannot be the result of random guessing by a bunch of contestants on another web site. It has to be based on actual economic analysis.
    6. No stopped clock forecasts; the Q4 2007 forecast cannot be one of a string of recession forecasts over the past three years.
    If all six conditions are met and you are the first to find such a forecast, you win by being the first to post a link to it on this thread. Multiple posts are allowed.

    This contest was re-opened Dec. 2, 2008 and the thread closes for new posts in two weeks from that date. Good luck!

    (Sorry, iTulip employees, contractors, writers, sponsors, and affiliates are not eligible.)
    Last edited by FRED; 12-02-08 at 06:04 PM. Reason: Extended a week and no repeats" qualification.
    Ed.

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