The "Forever" Canadian Housing Bubble

[Mega]

Re: The "Forever" Canadian Housing Bubble

https://news.sky.com/story/ex-bank-o...onomy-11840141

Not long to go..............

[thriftyandboringinohio]

Re: The "Forever" Canadian Housing Bubble

I spotted this today and thought it might fit in this thread.

https://boingboing.net/2019/10/30/ci...scores-eh.html

Google (Alphabet) is pitching a fully corporate city-in-a-city for the Toronto waterfront. The Google division calls itself Sidewalk Labs.
Google will own everything, have full police and tax powers, have corporate judges decide cases, and control all public access the waterfront.
Of course they will put their Canadian HQ inside their little corporate kingdom.

They say it will address cost of living concerns for Toronto.

What could possibly go wrong?

[shiny!]

Re: The "Forever" Canadian Housing Bubble

I spotted this today and thought it might fit in this thread.

https://boingboing.net/2019/10/30/ci...scores-eh.html

Google (Alphabet) is pitching a fully corporate city-in-a-city for the Toronto waterfront. The Google division calls itself Sidewalk Labs.
Google will own everything, have full police and tax powers, have corporate judges decide cases, and control all public access the waterfront.
Of course they will put their Canadian HQ inside their little corporate kingdom.

They say it will address cost of living concerns for Toronto.

What could possibly go wrong?

Someone at Google/Alphabet must have read He, She and It by Marge Piercy. Written in 1991. It was only a matter of time...

[santafe2]

Re: The "Forever" Canadian Housing Bubble

every time i see this graph i think about whether i'd like a pied a terre in montreal.

After reviewing our travel options, we decided to buy a boat so we can go wherever we want. Montreal is our favorite NA city in the summer but we don't really want to own anything in the still somewhat frozen north. This spring we're headed up the Hudson, Champlain Canal, etc., to Montreal. Plan to spend a couple of months between there and QC and head back south as the weather changes. On a boat you can spend a month in Montreal for about 1/3 the cost of a hotel and stay right in the old city and explore all you want along the St. Lawrence. The great thing about a boat is that you can winter in the Bahamas and it costs less than the average house in either location. The other thing we've learned about living aboard is that you just don't care about the day-to-day stupidity happening on land, docking without incident and the day's weather are much bigger concerns.

[GRG55]

Re: The "Forever" Canadian Housing Bubble

After reviewing our travel options, we decided to buy a boat so we can go wherever we want. Montreal is our favorite NA city in the summer but we don't really want to own anything in the still somewhat frozen north. This spring we're headed up the Hudson, Champlain Canal, etc., to Montreal. Plan to spend a couple of months between there and QC and head back south as the weather changes. On a boat you can spend a month in Montreal for about 1/3 the cost of a hotel and stay right in the old city and explore all you want along the St. Lawrence. The great thing about a boat is that you can winter in the Bahamas and it costs less than the average house in either location. The other thing we've learned about living aboard is that you just don't care about the day-to-day stupidity happening on land, docking without incident and the day's weather are much bigger concerns.

Plus you have a waterfront view that you can change whenever you want.

So what is it, a sailboat? Sloop rigged? Cutter? Yawl?

Please don't tell me a solar expert is now cruising around in a motor yacht.

[santafe2]

Re: The "Forever" Canadian Housing Bubble

Plus you have a waterfront view that you can change whenever you want.

So what is it, a sailboat? Sloop rigged? Cutter? Yawl?

Please don't tell me a solar expert is now cruising around in a motor yacht.

It's a long story which I'll shorten. We decided almost 3 years ago that we wanted to retire when the time was right but we had no idea what we would do as both of us are serial entrepreneurs which just means you have no idea what you'd do if you aren't overly busy. Two years ago we spent Christmas in Exuma and met a captain who took us on several cruises to the outer cays. We were hooked, and this last year we took certification courses in the US and chartered a bare boat last summer to ensure we wouldn't be that idiot that became the latest Coastguard cautionary tale.

So we're ready to buy a boat and we begin reviewing every online video and review we could find. There is one company manufacturing a hybrid cruiser. We never considered a sailboat because, well, we're from New Mexico and sailboats are a culture, not a thing you buy. The one existing hybrid cruiser, like the other early adopters, was going bankrupt a few years ago and was purchased by a Russian oligarch. The details are interesting but Vladimir suggests I don't discuss them online.

So we bought a traditional cruising yacht. I'm not a fan of the dual Volvo diesel engines but that is the state of current design. We're adding solar and NiCad batteries to allow us to anchor out for several days without using the generator to keep the lights on but it's far from perfect. As I've begun designing solar for our decidedly non environmental boat, I've been surprised how many people want to understand what we want to accomplish. We'll win the owners over first and then the manufacturers. Like auto racing, boating is not something one can easily explain in an environmental context. It's something you love, really need to do, and something easily judged. I do both. Life is complex but I think we'll have an impact here. Boaters are such decent people, they just need an example. It's worked with our kids, I assume it will work here. PM me if you'd like to spend a weekend floating in Montreal this summer.

[GRG55]

Re: The "Forever" Canadian Housing Bubble

It's a long story which I'll shorten. We decided almost 3 years ago that we wanted to retire when the time was right but we had no idea what we would do as both of us are serial entrepreneurs which just means you have no idea what you'd do if you aren't overly busy. Two years ago we spent Christmas in Exuma and met a captain who took us on several cruises to the outer cays. We were hooked, and this last year we took certification courses in the US and chartered a bare boat last summer to ensure we wouldn't be that idiot that became the latest Coastguard cautionary tale.

So we're ready to buy a boat and we begin reviewing every online video and review we could find. There is one company manufacturing a hybrid cruiser. We never considered a sailboat because, well, we're from New Mexico and sailboats are a culture, not a thing you buy. The one existing hybrid cruiser, like the other early adopters, was going bankrupt a few years ago and was purchased by a Russian oligarch. The details are interesting but Vladimir suggests I don't discuss them online.

So we bought a traditional cruising yacht. I'm not a fan of the dual Volvo diesel engines but that is the state of current design. We're adding solar and NiCad batteries to allow us to anchor out for several days without using the generator to keep the lights on but it's far from perfect. As I've begun designing solar for our decidedly non environmental boat, I've been surprised how many people want to understand what we want to accomplish. We'll win the owners over first and then the manufacturers. Like auto racing, boating is not something one can easily explain in an environmental context. It's something you love, really need to do, and something easily judged. I do both. Life is complex but I think we'll have an impact here. Boaters are such decent people, they just need an example. It's worked with our kids, I assume it will work here. PM me if you'd like to spend a weekend floating in Montreal this summer.

Yowsers! Twin diesels!! Mega will be suffering heart palpitations.

Very cool! Your sentiment about auto racing and boating also applies to personal aviation. I have a pilot friend who owns a lovely Mooney (a cosy but very efficient high performance personal airplane). He drives a Tesla with a sign on the back "I own an EV so I can fly an ICE airplane"...a similar thought process it seems to yours when it comes to power the non-propulsion systems on the boat.

Am I to understand you are permanent live-aboards? Or is this a seasonal lifestyle with extended sojourns back to landlocked New Mexico?

Some here will recall I am a sailor (not uncommon among aviators I've found - after all it's about controlling "the wing") and have chartered boats in numerous places over the years living in North America and abroad. The interior volume of a power boat is materially greater than the same hull length in a sailboat, thus offering a more convenient/comfortable live-aboard experience I suspect.

Another aviator acquaintance, a professional medivac pilot and skilled floatplane owner, has just chucked "the American Dream" to live aboard a Mystic 30, a classic cutter-rigged New England boat. He's trying to figure out how to live "off-grid", and is now dealing with similar challenges to those you are tackling.

BTW, as you are probably aware, there's quite a bit of work going on to figure out increasingly better ways to power the smaller (sub 40-ft) keelboats with electric auxiliary motors using a combination solar/wind/shore power recharging instead of the traditional diesel Yanmars/Volvos/Perkins. That just seems a no-brainer given the advantages.

The invitation to rendezvous in Montreal is tempting for a number of reasons. More later...

[santafe2]

Re: The "Forever" Canadian Housing Bubble

Yowsers! Twin diesels!! Mega will be suffering heart palpitations.

Very cool! Your sentiment about auto racing and boating also applies to personal aviation. I have a pilot friend who owns a lovely Mooney (a cosy but very efficient high performance personal airplane). He drives a Tesla with a sign on the back "I own an EV so I can fly an ICE airplane"...a similar thought process it seems to yours when it comes to power the non-propulsion systems on the boat.

Am I to understand you are permanent live-aboards? Or is this a seasonal lifestyle with extended sojourns back to landlocked New Mexico?

Some here will recall I am a sailor (not uncommon among aviators I've found - after all it's about controlling "the wing") and have chartered boats in numerous places over the years living in North America and abroad. The interior volume of a power boat is materially greater than the same hull length in a sailboat, thus offering a more convenient/comfortable live-aboard experience I suspect.

Another aviator acquaintance, a professional medivac pilot and skilled floatplane owner, has just chucked "the American Dream" to live aboard a Mystic 30, a classic cutter-rigged New England boat. He's trying to figure out how to live "off-grid", and is now dealing with similar challenges to those you are tackling.

BTW, as you are probably aware, there's quite a bit of work going on to figure out increasingly better ways to power the smaller (sub 40-ft) keelboats with electric auxiliary motors using a combination solar/wind/shore power recharging instead of the traditional diesel Yanmars/Volvos/Perkins. That just seems a no-brainer given the advantages.

The invitation to rendezvous in Montreal is tempting for a number of reasons. More later...

Mega thrives on palpitations, the Volvo engines are, I’m sure, close to the bottom of his concerns. And I agree, airplane pilots and water craft pilots are wired very similarly. I wouldn’t included racing as it’s only your life you’re putting on the line, not your friends and family. I take calculated chances on the track I would never take on the water. We spend as much time planning a trip as taking the trip. I’ve several friends who pilot a plane and they do the same.

Time is also an integral factor. When a friend has agreed to go with you in a plane or boat, (especially in open water), they’ve made a commitment that requires them to continue to trust you even if they’re a bit uncomfortable with the situation. On the track, you can adjust speed to accommodate anyone who wants a ride along. After a few turns you can ask, faster, slower or about right? If they want to take a turn at speed, it only lasts a few seconds and you can recalibrate if they realize “at speed” was nothing they’d considered possible.

We’re planning about five months aboard in 2020, as we have commitments here until almost June 1. Also, we’ll still have properties to manage in Santa Fe and some planned building projects, so probably three years cruising north in the summer and south in the winter and working in the spring and fall.

I have some ideas about how solar will be useful on a cruiser. For me it’s more about being able to anchor out or use a mooring ball for a few days without needing the generator. I can mount marine rated thin film panels on a 12’ square Shade Sail and easily roll out 1,280 watts of solar once anchored, (8x160 watts). The trick will be sizing the lithium ion battery bank correctly so the system will work for 3-4 days in cloudy weather without diesel backup.

As an example, you could use 8 lithium batteries, (23 lbs. each), with a 1.3kwh capacity per battery for a total capacity of ~10kwh. The panels weigh 6.2 lbs. for a total weight of ~55 lbs. and the output will average 4-5kwh per day, (not in Canada, sorry, I’m not in charge of that issue). I think six panels providing a 1/3 daily recharge would be more than enough. Cost is about $10 a watt. Would be $12-13 a watt if you need someone to do the work. Like anything else on a boat, there’s no financial payback, just more peaceful time away.

An interesting outcome of this experiment will be the possible complete non-use of the generator. If we don’t need the generator, the batteries have a very logical home in the engine room, (fire suppression pre-installed). It’s going to be a fun experiment. I could geek out further and tell you why a generator makes perfect sense for an off-grid home but much less sense on a boat but I have to stop and prep for a meeting.

Getting back to the thread, it was actually the Canadian housing bubble, apparently with no end, that pushed us in this direction. Now for the same cost we’ll have a house wherever we want in Canada and move it to the Bahamas in the winter. Job done.

[jk]

Re: The "Forever" Canadian Housing Bubble

GREATER VANCOUVER HOME SALES DOWN 22.1% IN JANUARY FROM PRIOR MONTH

all the buyers are in quarantine.

[GRG55]

Re: The "Forever" Canadian Housing Bubble

GREATER VANCOUVER HOME SALES DOWN 22.1% IN JANUARY FROM PRIOR MONTH

all the buyers are in quarantine.

[GRG55]

Re: The "Forever" Canadian Housing Bubble

GREATER VANCOUVER HOME SALES DOWN 22.1% IN JANUARY FROM PRIOR MONTH

all the buyers are in quarantine.

Apparently THAT didn't last long, LOL.

Bloomberg - March 19, 2020

(Bloomberg) -- A week into a pandemic that has forced a swath of Canada’s economy to shut down and wiped hundreds of billions of dollars off the nation’s stock market, a Vancouver mansion sold for $150,000 over the asking price.

As the coronavirus upends the real estate business, along with everything else, the country’s indefatigable buyers are taking some pause -- but, so far, not much.

John Pasalis’ firm was getting ready to list a $1.1 million home in Toronto’s trendy Leslieville district next week but was preempted by two “bully” offers -- those made ahead of the official selling date. A deal was struck before the property ever hit the market...

...Re/Max, one of the nation’s biggest brokerages, on Tuesday urged its 18,000 brokers across the country to cancel all open houses. In Vancouver, developers are closing sales centers and construction sites will be impacted as building activity is interrupted, according to Anne McMullin, president of the Urban Development Institute, an industry group.

But underpinning the market is the fastest pace population growth in 30 years, driven in large part by immigration, and the appeal of Canadian real estate to those with cash to deploy at uncertain times, including foreign buyers.

In Montreal, a New-York based buyer just made an offer on a property listed at more than $2 million after a virtual visit, said Debby Doktorczyk, owner of Engel & Volkers Montreal, which counts 175 brokers.

Momentum helps. The housing market entered the spring selling season on a high, with sales across the country up 25% from February 2019. Toronto and Vancouver home resales surged about 44% from the same month a year ago, while Montreal’s were up about 23%.

The market was extremely strong -- if not a bit “crazy” -- before the pandemic, says Doktorczyck. Now, “instead of getting 15 offers for a property, we’re getting five,” she said, adding virtual visits are likely to become more common.

Even in Vancouver, which was only just emerging from its worst year in decades before the coronavirus, Royal LePage broker Adil Dinani says his shop is still doing 90% of the deals expected.

Dinani was up past midnight negotiating the sale of a C$2.3 million, six-bedroom home in an affluent suburb just outside Vancouver. The open house on Sunday had drawn 40 groups -- some 85 eager buyers undeterred by the virus -- who waited to enter one group at a time. The property drew seven offers, including the winner -- an all-cash bid, almost C$150,000 above asking.

While open houses may be suspended, home buyers can still see homes by appointment, say agents. Meanwhile falling mortgage rates will act as a spur. Borrowers can now get a five-year variable mortgage at 2.1% and a three-year fixed at 1.99%, according to RateSpy.com.

“You know the saying -- oxygen for any real estate market is low interest rates,” said Dinani at Royal LePage in Vancouver. “Well interest rates just got lower. There’s a lot more room to move in Canada. That prime rate can come down more, unlike the U.S. and other nations that are pretty much operating near zero.”

[Fiat Currency]

Re: The "Forever" Canadian Housing Bubble

... There’s a lot more room to move in Canada.

I plan to buy my daughter her first house with a palmful of gold sometime in the next 18 months.

$CAD @ $0.69 and looking pretty weak.

[GRG55]

Re: The "Forever" Canadian Housing Bubble

Now here's a juxtaposition:

March unemployment in Canada increases by 1 million people. Another 2.1 million have their hours of work slashed. The national unemployment rate increases from 5.6% to 7.8% in one month. The youth unemployment rate is 16.8%. The Federal deficit, which was running about $19 Billion annually before C-19 showed up, is now forecasted to hit an eye-popping 184 Billion this fiscal year.

And Vancouver and Toronto housing both posted an increase in average prices in March.

[jk]

Re: The "Forever" Canadian Housing Bubble

do you know anything about sales volumes? usually at tops sales volume goes way down as sellers don't want to adjust to the new reality. otoh, maybe it was the lifting of restrictions in china, eh?

[GRG55]

Re: The "Forever" Canadian Housing Bubble

do you know anything about sales volumes? usually at tops sales volume goes way down as sellers don't want to adjust to the new reality. otoh, maybe it was the lifting of restrictions in china, eh?

Sales volumes are plummeting now. B.C. and Ontario are two of the harder hit Provinces with COVID-19. Besides, who wants strangers wandering through looking at their house with the virus at large. So listings will probably be pulled and that might tighten the market for a while I suppose?

I expect April sales volume numbers to be awful. I would think that will eventually show up in declining prices as distressed sellers return to the market in due course. But what do I know. The Vancouver market, in particular, continues to surprise me...for ten long years now.