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Thread: Is Tesla TOAST ?

  1. #261
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    Default Re: Is Tesla TOAST ?

    Huh. Always thought a big Q/Q achilles heel was the lack of dealer network and corresponding high SG&A bar to clear. But what are the odds that the overall SG&A costs went down Q/Q even as they sold double the cars? I mean, typically, when you're selling big honking things like cars that have to be moved/registered/delivered/etc/etc you can't move double the number for less money. They reported overall operating expenses down too. More to the point, given their PR track record, if they did discover/invent some miraculous way to achieve this, what are the odds they wouldn't be screaming about it from the rooftops? I mean, how do you achieve SG&A rates lower than Honda without a dealer network? Tesla's gross margin and sg&a costs have tracked each other since its inception. Suddenly they take off like a shot in opposite directions? If the books aren't illegally cooked, you'd at least expect them to have shifted expenses out of the sg&a category and into cost of sales. But that dropped from 81% per unit to 74% per unit too. I mean, sg&a and sales costs per unit can drop with scale. Fine. But for operations costs to be cheaper this quarter to do double the numbers of the last quarter? That's some goddamn magic right there.


  2. #262
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    Default Re: Is Tesla TOAST ?

    If it looks like an accounting fraud, swims like an accounting fraud and quacks like an accounting fraud, it's probably an accounting fraud. ;-)

  3. #263
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    Default Re: Is Tesla TOAST ?


  4. #264
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    Default Re: Is Tesla TOAST ?

    Quote Originally Posted by jk View Post

  5. #265
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    Default Re: Is Tesla TOAST ?

    someone's tweet:



    My worst single stock investment mistakes had one thing in common: I didn’t pay enough attention to the bond market. Well, here is Tesla, showing a remarkable divergence between the two...












    fwiw i bought some jan 2020 tsla puts when the stock rallied a few weeks ago on some news i've forgotten.

  6. #266
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    Default Re: Is Tesla TOAST ?

    I don't think I can get to my original Tesla is toast post but in that post I warned that Elon's solar company, Solar City was much worse than Tesla. I was in the business so it wasn't too difficult to put my stamp on that prediction. Elon strong armed Tesla investors to take that dead company under its masthead some time ago. Tesla is dead but no one knows when. Maybe the petulant child president is so pissed off at GM he kills the rebates to punish them or Elon charms him enough to keep the rebate in play. You can't time these things.

    Buffett stepped in, in 2008 and gave moribund GE another decade of life. They were days from going under. Apparently they've pissed off the godfather of American capitalism now and they can finally die.

    Einstein famously said, "God doesn't play dice.", but Hawking has warned us that god shoots craps a trillion times a second. So who knows when?

  7. #267
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    Default Re: Is Tesla TOAST ?

    Total aside, but this post reminded me of it. I was talking with someone the other day who said the common wisdom: The thing about corporations is the bad ones die, unlike governments, which last forever. Thing is, the average government is what? 35 years old? How long in the tooth is the average S&P 500 company? Maybe 20? Truth is one doesn't last so much longer than the other. The US Constitution, like JP Morgan Chase or the Bank of New York Mellon or Molson Coors or Colgate Palmolive, just happens to be particularly old and in a country full of more recently acquired pieces, so it sounds more plausible. Harder to buy the creative destruction in business but not in government argument across the pond when you're in a 500 year old brewery in a country with a 50 year old constitution or something. Big things change very fast, and with little warning.

  8. #268
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    Default Re: Is Tesla TOAST ?

    Actually things have been changed via amendments to the Constitution. The framers made it not too easy in order to have broad agreement.

    There is also the option of a Constitutional Convention, which seems to be a goal of some on the right. In fact they are only a few states away, but will not likely get enough to reach their goal.

    Such a convention could open up a lot of doors most don't want to go through.

  9. #269
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    Quote Originally Posted by vt View Post
    Actually things have been changed via amendments to the Constitution. The framers made it not too easy in order to have broad agreement.

    There is also the option of a Constitutional Convention, which seems to be a goal of some on the right. In fact they are only a few states away, but will not likely get enough to reach their goal.

    Such a convention could open up a lot of doors most don't want to go through.
    A one-party convention to re-write the constitution would be a very, very bad idea indeed.


  10. #270
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    Default Re: Is Tesla TOAST ?

    From some time I have been making my mind around Tesla. Resumed: Tesla is not toast. On the contrary, Tesla is, probably a buy. Big automakers which have been long dragging their feet regarding ev's adoption are facing extinction by Tesla and some other ev players. And this has deep implication for oil future prices as well.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aUC6...fA38rc0zAK%3A6
    Written article by Ross Tessian: https://seekingalpha.com/article/422...-beyond?page=7

    Make your bets....please




    Quote Originally Posted by santafe2 View Post
    I don't think I can get to my original Tesla is toast post but in that post I warned that Elon's solar company, Solar City was much worse than Tesla. I was in the business so it wasn't too difficult to put my stamp on that prediction. Elon strong armed Tesla investors to take that dead company under its masthead some time ago. Tesla is dead but no one knows when. Maybe the petulant child president is so pissed off at GM he kills the rebates to punish them or Elon charms him enough to keep the rebate in play. You can't time these things.

    Buffett stepped in, in 2008 and gave moribund GE another decade of life. They were days from going under. Apparently they've pissed off the godfather of American capitalism now and they can finally die.

    Einstein famously said, "God doesn't play dice.", but Hawking has warned us that god shoots craps a trillion times a second. So who knows when?
    Last edited by Southernguy; 12-04-18 at 06:41 PM. Reason: add evidence

  11. #271
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    Default Re: Is Tesla TOAST ?

    Quote Originally Posted by Southernguy View Post

    Make your bets....please
    I'm betting no conventional car company can afford to buy Tesla at anything close to current valuations.
    I'm betting no conventional technology company will either.
    I'm betting Tesla cannot generate enough cash flow to make the development investments it really needs to make to maintain its product line over time, and that problem gets worse if they expand models. The 'S' is already long in the tooth.
    I'm betting Elon Musk's ego eventually destroys the company, like so many other brilliant but petulant entrepreneurs I have seen before.

  12. #272
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    Default Re: Is Tesla TOAST ?

    Quote Originally Posted by GRG55 View Post
    I'm betting no conventional car company can afford to buy Tesla at anything close to current valuations.
    I'm betting no conventional technology company will either.
    I'm betting Tesla cannot generate enough cash flow to make the development investments it really needs to make to maintain its product line over time, and that problem gets worse if they expand models. The 'S' is already long in the tooth.
    I'm betting Elon Musk's ego eventually destroys the company, like so many other brilliant but petulant entrepreneurs I have seen before.

    I think Tesla's fate isn't sealed yet. The car industry as we know may not exist in 20 year's time when self-driving technology is advanced enough for many people to give up their cars. When that day comes, technology will win and not the lower cost provider. Big car manufacturers like GM and Toyota will face existential crisis because their business model is dependent on economies of scale.

    It's just like Virzoom, too expensive for consumers to own, but gyms can afford to buy them because they rent them out.

  13. #273
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    Default Re: Is Tesla TOAST ?

    Quote Originally Posted by GRG55 View Post
    I'm betting no conventional car company can afford to buy Tesla at anything close to current valuations.
    I'm betting no conventional technology company will either.
    I'm betting Tesla cannot generate enough cash flow to make the development investments it really needs to make to maintain its product line over time, and that problem gets worse if they expand models. The 'S' is already long in the tooth.
    I'm betting Elon Musk's ego eventually destroys the company, like so many other brilliant but petulant entrepreneurs I have seen before.
    In any case I hope I can be here in 2023 and check the results. How many people do you know are waiting for affordable ev to appear to buy a new car? My brother (an ev fan who build one several years ago) and I are. Here, with very few official perks things shall be slower.

  14. #274
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    Default Re: Is Tesla TOAST ?

    I'm waiting for a self driving EV:-)

  15. #275
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    Default Re: Is Tesla TOAST ?

    Quote Originally Posted by GRG55 View Post
    I'm betting no conventional car company can afford to buy Tesla at anything close to current valuations.
    I'm betting no conventional technology company will either.
    I'm betting Tesla cannot generate enough cash flow to make the development investments it really needs to make to maintain its product line over time, and that problem gets worse if they expand models. The 'S' is already long in the tooth.
    I'm betting Elon Musk's ego eventually destroys the company, like so many other brilliant but petulant entrepreneurs I have seen before.
    FWIW, I still think that the Occam's Razor explanation for the latest quarter's SG&A numbers is fraud. It's possible it's not. But if it weren't, they performed a miracle, and it's not like Tesla to perform miracles without bragging about them in the press.

  16. #276
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    Default Re: Is Tesla TOAST ?

    Quote Originally Posted by GRG55 View Post
    I'm betting no conventional car company can afford to buy Tesla at anything close to current valuations.
    I'm betting no conventional technology company will either.
    I'm betting Tesla cannot generate enough cash flow to make the development investments it really needs to make to maintain its product line over time, and that problem gets worse if they expand models. The 'S' is already long in the tooth.
    I'm betting Elon Musk's ego eventually destroys the company, like so many other brilliant but petulant entrepreneurs I have seen before.
    Tech version of stagflation = techflation

    Stagflation = inflation & unemployment too high combined with too low growth

    Tesla Techflation = valuation inflation & platform refresh costs too high combined with too low growth in auto sector

    They're caught in the deadzone

  17. #277
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    Default Re: Is Tesla TOAST ?

    Quote Originally Posted by Southernguy View Post
    In any case I hope I can be here in 2023 and check the results. How many people do you know are waiting for affordable ev to appear to buy a new car? My brother (an ev fan who build one several years ago) and I are. Here, with very few official perks things shall be slower.
    I don't know anybody who is waiting for an affordable EV to appear to buy a new car. Those few I know that really want an "affordable" EV seem to be buying Nissan Leafs (especially popular with the staff in our Seattle office for some reason ). A couple I know have Tesla 3s on order. And all the rest of us are just going out and buying a replacement ICE vehicle when we need to. Some here would probably be horrified to find out what I use as my personal vehicle.

    My own view is the totally autonomous "self-driving" car is a further off than the hype would suggest. But the light vehicle fleet in the USA and Canada turns over rapidly so every bit of technology improvement along that path can be adopted fairly rapidly.

  18. #278
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    Default Re: Is Tesla TOAST ?

    Of course not real automotive manufacturer is going to buy Tesla Motors. I've spoken to several Tesla Motors owners and generally seem like very bright people. But, on a whole the average Tesla owner seems to have no idea how an EV works or understand any of the technology behind an EV.

    1. If you buy a car company you are on the hook for all of the liabilities and that includes the liability for all the fragile humans who drive and ride in the vehicles. Tesla has had some fairly spectacular and horrific crashes.
    2. There is nothing cutting edge being done by Elon Musk at Tesla Motors. IF the Model S Motors is so revolutionary then why did Tesla switch to a Magnet Motor for the Model 3??? The reality is the AC Induction Motor has been used approximately 3-4 times in automotive history. 1. Steinmetz Electric 2. GM's EV 1, 3. Tesla Model S. I think Lucid is going to use the AC Induction and time will tell how that works out for them. Model 3's use the permament magnet motor like every other EV made today. Elon Musk is a complete fraud!

    Every owner of a Tesla has told me that Elon Musk is going to "save the world" and I can only think crazy/dilusional/Jim Jones would have loved these people.

  19. #279
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    Default Re: Is Tesla TOAST ?

    Its market cap is like double Ford's. Even if the Model 3 succeeds beyond anyone's wildest expectations, that's a ludicrous valuation. You still might make money if you time it right. Bet realize you're buying into a frenzied foam pit of hype with colored strobe lights and air horns blaring over loud reggaeton music. In other words, it ain't about the cars.

  20. #280
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    Default Re: Is Tesla TOAST ?

    Quote Originally Posted by dcarrigg View Post
    Its market cap is like double Ford's. Even if the Model 3 succeeds beyond anyone's wildest expectations, that's a ludicrous valuation. You still might make money if you time it right. Bet realize you're buying into a frenzied foam pit of hype with colored strobe lights and air horns blaring over loud reggaeton music. In other words, it ain't about the cars.
    Never short a cult.

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