greece again

[Thailandnotes]

http://www.counterpunch.org/2017/02/...pay-back-debt/

[thriftyandboringinohio]

Re: greece again

Thanks TLN. Hudson continues to make good sense about Greece.

[gnk]

Re: greece again

Michael Hudson is correct about one thing - Greece took on massive debt.

Yet there is a question one should pose to really understand the Greek problem:

What did Greece do with all that debt during the "good times?" How was investment handled - for example billions of EU funds have been spent in the Agricultural sector - what has it accomplished? What is the current status of the pension system?

Answer that, and you'll understand why Greece is still under a program, holding elections every two years looking for a "savior" while the other PII(G)S are finished with their programs. It is interesting to note that all the PIIGS save Greece, are Catholic countries. Not one Protestant country needed a "program." Greece, of course, is Orthodox.

I'll say something controversial now: Outside of the Protestant world, where the renaissance, enlightenment, and reformation did not take hold, you will be hard pressed to find a culture, a people, that creates wealth and can govern itself. The Catholic countries of Europe are somewhat of a hybrid. I'm leaving Asia out of this statement, as I am not knowledgeable enough of their history and culture, but there are success stories there. I think looking at the world only in terms of economics is faulty analysis.

Maybe it's time to look at Sam Huntington again - Clash of Civilizations.

[gwynedd1]

Re: greece again

Michael Hudson is correct about one thing - Greece took on massive debt.

Yet there is a question one should pose to really understand the Greek problem:

What did Greece do with all that debt during the "good times?" How was investment handled - for example billions of EU funds have been spent in the Agricultural sector - what has it accomplished? What is the current status of the pension system?

Answer that, and you'll understand why Greece is still under a program, holding elections every two years looking for a "savior" while the other PII(G)S are finished with their programs. It is interesting to note that all the PIIGS save Greece, are Catholic countries. Not one Protestant country needed a "program." Greece, of course, is Orthodox.

I'll say something controversial now: Outside of the Protestant world, where the renaissance, enlightenment, and reformation did not take hold, you will be hard pressed to find a culture, a people, that creates wealth and can govern itself. The Catholic countries of Europe are somewhat of a hybrid. I'm leaving Asia out of this statement, as I am not knowledgeable enough of their history and culture, but there are success stories there. I think looking at the world only in terms of economics is faulty analysis.

Maybe it's time to look at Sam Huntington again - Clash of Civilizations.

How about not being under the same currency block and not trading debt for German cars?

You cannot expect Greeks to know they haven't paid for that Beamer yet, even after they paid for it.
Heck even when we civilization wizards buy Chinese goods, we might want to think of it as a personal deposit...with the balance possibly due later.

[astonas]

Re: greece again

Michael Hudson is correct about one thing - Greece took on massive debt.

Yet there is a question one should pose to really understand the Greek problem:

What did Greece do with all that debt during the "good times?" How was investment handled - for example billions of EU funds have been spent in the Agricultural sector - what has it accomplished? What is the current status of the pension system?

Answer that, and you'll understand why Greece is still under a program, holding elections every two years looking for a "savior" while the other PII(G)S are finished with their programs. It is interesting to note that all the PIIGS save Greece, are Catholic countries. Not one Protestant country needed a "program." Greece, of course, is Orthodox.

I'll say something controversial now: Outside of the Protestant world, where the renaissance, enlightenment, and reformation did not take hold, you will be hard pressed to find a culture, a people, that creates wealth and can govern itself. The Catholic countries of Europe are somewhat of a hybrid. I'm leaving Asia out of this statement, as I am not knowledgeable enough of their history and culture, but there are success stories there. I think looking at the world only in terms of economics is faulty analysis.

Maybe it's time to look at Sam Huntington again - Clash of Civilizations.

Hi gnk, it's good to "see" you again. Hope all is well.

I agree that Greece's culture affected how it used the money it borrowed, and that this represents a central challenge to the viability of it residing within the EMU, and perhaps even the EU. And it is certainly true that Greece's outcome over time is different enough from the other PIIGS that Michael Hudson's arguments must be taken with a grain of salt. If his concerns were the only, or even most prominent factors in play, all the programs should have failed equally spectacularly. The empirical evidence we have is that they did not, and to my knowledge he has still neglected to adequately explain this fact, or even consider why his model predicted a different outcome than was observed. (That's not to say that he hasn't raised a lot of valid points that other models need to answer for, just that his own model also appears incomplete so far.)


I would with the greatest respect caution, however, against any facile projection of this question of culture. I have come to believe that it is easy to overgeneralize when it comes to the various aspects of culture. Religion is one aspect, of course, but language, historical narratives taught in schools, climate, and even music can also play into the background of perceptions that colors the response of a people. Properly considered, there could be almost as many variables as there are people!

For example, Greece has a proud and ancient history - claiming the title of the birthplace of democracy. What would one expect if children in a society, from the day they are born, are taught some version of the following: "our nation gave the world it's greatest political gift, and it revolved around allowing local people - rather than distant or elite rulers - to make decisions". Is it possible that this might result in a nationalist tendency to blame external elites whenever things go wrong, and for spending to favor patronage pandering to local mass movements, rather than an external elite's objective assessment? I certainly think that's possible. Could it make it politically impossible to swallow externally-mandated medicine, no matter how obviously necessary that might be in specific cases (e.g. Cadastre)? I think it could play a role...

This isn't to say that the above example is the "real reason" for the problems we see, or even that it is a more dominant factor than religion. It's just meant to give one example of how political and economic culture is intrinsically a many-faceted thing, and the side a given person focuses on as being the "real" factor in play may say a lot more about that person's own interests, than it does about the situation itself.

If a person is interested in religious culture, it's natural and easy to find reasons why religion makes everything in the world the way it is. But if one is instead interested in reading about psychology, or philosophy, or linguistics, or geography, or climate, one can fit those frames onto the circumstances equally easily. It's possible to frame the problem through Huntington's "Clash of Civilizations". But you can also read Jared Diamond's "Guns, Germs and Steel", and see it as a clash of peoples shaped by the geographical features of their origins. Or read Marx and see it as chiefly a political and class struggle. Or read a litany of political ethicists and see it as a clash of ideological philosophies. Or read Hitchens and see it as a clash of literary/political narratives. Or read early Friedman and use the lens of tribalism. Or read Chomsky, Pinker, and other linguists and apply a model based on mental representations shaped by human language. ... I'm increasingly confident that there's no end to this list.

It's part of why I stopped writing so much about this subject of European cultures here, even while continuing to read on it fairly extensively. I realized that the more I read about all the various facets of the question, the apparent dominance of any one of them necessarily depends more on one's own exposure to a given lens than it does on objective reality. And predicting what will happen next depends not so much on how these factors might predictably interact, but on what lens the individuals making a given decision happen to be using on a given day.

Some leaders are extremely predictable in this. It is trivial to see the direct connection, for example, between the language used by Varoufakis and Schäuble, and what policies they will advocate for politically. If you'll forgive the technical analogy, it is possible to project their thinking onto a basis of eigenvectors (axes) corresponding to their respective value systems, and estimate meaningful and consistent eigenvalues, consistent over decades of time. Understand these, and you can make extremely reliable predictions about what will take place, and what the outcome will be should they find themselves at odds with one another. The fact that each politician values very different subsets of the benefits civilization can provide, means that each will see the struggle as an existential one for civilization, and each will act in accordance with that view. (Unsurprisingly, fireworks must ensue, and the view represented in the outcome will be determined by power, and not moral reasoning. That is the inescapable nature of any existential conflict.)

But this analytical approach is becoming increasingly useless in forming predictions. We are now more than ever in a world where the more influential leaders of the free world are being either cornered, dominated or overwhelmed by individuals for whom all communication, down to the meanings of words themselves, are nothing but manipulations. Trump, Bannon, Farage, Johnson, LePen, Wilders... these are not rational actors in any analytically meaningful sense of the term. In some cases, it is highly doubtful whether they are even capable of understanding the inescapable incompatibilities inherent in their own thoughts, let alone successfully planning out the game theory by anticipating those in others', which we might analyze here.

Today, we can still play private guessing games for our own entertainment, if we have the spare time and inclination, but trying to create a useful model for what may happen next no longer seems a particularly productive exercise.

[jk]

Re: greece again

let's see what happens next in italy before we conclude that greece is so different.

[gnk]

Re: greece again

I agree that Greece's culture affected how it used the money it borrowed, and that this represents a central challenge to the viability of it residing within the EMU, and perhaps even the EU. And it is certainly true that Greece's outcome over time is different enough from the other PIIGS that Michael Hudson's arguments must be taken with a grain of salt. If his concerns were the only, or even most prominent factors in play, all the programs should have failed equally spectacularly. The empirical evidence we have is that they did not, and to my knowledge he has still neglected to adequately explain this fact, or even consider why his model predicted a different outcome than was observed. (That's not to say that he hasn't raised a lot of valid points that other models need to answer for, just that his own model also appears incomplete so far.)

I agree 100%. What I wrote above may have been incomplete, but that is my thought process as well.

I would with the greatest respect caution, however, against any facile projection of this question of culture. I have come to believe that it is easy to overgeneralize when it comes to the various aspects of culture. Religion is one aspect, of course, but language, historical narratives taught in schools, climate, and even music can also play into the background of perceptions that colors the response of a people. Properly considered, there could be almost as many variables as there are people!

I am not making a religious argument. Note I used the words "Protestant" and "Catholic" and not "Christianity." Why? To me, Protestantism is not just a sect of Christianity - but a philosophy, an underlying one at that, that encompasses and is influenced/evolved by the other factors you mention above. (Work ethic, self reliance, emotional stability, saving, etc...)

Here in Greece, many people still worship icons. Some look for those special icons that "cry tears." In many places the dead bodies of saints are paraded once a year and people lie underneath them to be "cured." In my island, one Church hosts an event every August where the "Snakes of the Virgin Mary" appear and are brought into the Church - they say there are crosses on the snake's heads. You see that happening in Germany? Why does god do such "miracles" in poor countries? Coincidence? There's much, much more to it. People that wait for miracles to happen are also likely to vote for a savior that promises them free stuff. I see a huge difference in the voting minds of Americans and Greeks. One of the two is more likely to believe in fairy tales.

While the Renaissance, Protestant Reformation etc, were taking place, the area called Greece today, and much of the Balkans, went from Byzantine to Ottoman rule.

Huntington actually believed that Western Europe's ideals evolved from ancient Greece and that Modern Greece is more Byzantine influenced. I agree, though that is changing in Greece. I often joke here in Greece that the Western Europeans and Americans inherited the ideas and logic of ancient Greece, while we Greeks merely inherited the rocks and marble the ancients left behind and hope to sell visitors coffee while they view those marvels. It makes them think when I say that, and to date, no one has challenged me on it. They feel a sense of shame when I say it. I think that's a good sign of progress.

But this analytical approach is becoming increasingly useless in forming predictions. We are now more than ever in a world where the more influential leaders of the free world are being either cornered, dominated or overwhelmed by individuals for whom all communication, down to the meanings of words themselves, are nothing but manipulations. Trump, Bannon, Farage, Johnson, LePen, Wilders... these are not rational actors in any analytically meaningful sense of the term. In some cases, it is highly doubtful whether they are even capable of understanding the inescapable incompatibilities inherent in their own thoughts, let alone successfully planning out the game theory by anticipating those in others', which we might analyze here.

Brexit, Le Pen, Trump, are mere symptoms. It is the elites' fault that they have risen, and they need their time and place in history, in my view. In this age of globalization, there is a pushback forming - a yearning for cultural identity, democratic control, and the feeling of an existential threat the middle classes feel.

I believe in the EU, but the EU elites have to stop being such wusses (for lack of a better term.) They need to push and sell the idea of being "European" and what that means. So far they have failed in that regard. Look to the US for examples. They must form an EU Army, do great things with the European Space Agency, that kind of stuff forms an identity. It inspires. It's all marketing. But Merkel, Hollande, and others are technocratic, put you to sleep in 15 minutes, eggheads that can't think like that.' What Le Pen did in Lebanon a couple of days ago was marketing genius. That stuff really works.

A cultural war is also going on in Greece - the "we are European" verse the "Byzantine/Russian" ideologies. And just like in the US and France and the UK - it's very evenly divided among the populace. It is mostly pro Europe, because at the end of the day, a small majority of Greeks know just how dysfunctional their system is and they secretly prefer outside help to the existing status quo.

I think Greece will change and shake off it's old anti Western habits. The Eastern mysticism/fatalism ideology of the Orthodox church and culture is slowly fading. The internet has a lot to do with it.

Many people openly mock this from the 1980's Papandreou days:


vaptisi-425x240.jpg

Ah, the good ol' days. Corruption, clientelism at its best. Even baptisms weren't immune to political party flag waving for a good economic future guaranteed by "the party". I have a cousin that rode around town back in the 1980s with a PASOK flag on his bike - he eventually got the government job at the post office.

[Techdread]

Re: greece again

Interesting.

Have you read "Why Nations Fail" if you have what do you think of it's theory? that Culture has little affect on why we have failing nation states.

[llanlad2]

Re: greece again

I am not making a religious argument. Note I used the words "Protestant" and "Catholic" and not "Christianity." Why? To me, Protestantism is not just a sect of Christianity - but a philosophy, an underlying one at that, that encompasses and is influenced/evolved by the other factors you mention above. (Work ethic, self reliance, emotional stability, saving, etc...)

Here in Greece, many people still worship icons. Some look for those special icons that "cry tears." In many places the dead bodies of saints are paraded once a year and people lie underneath them to be "cured." In my island, one Church hosts an event every August where the "Snakes of the Virgin Mary" appear and are brought into the Church - they say there are crosses on the snake's heads. You see that happening in Germany? Why does god do such "miracles" in poor countries? Coincidence? There's much, much more to it. People that wait for miracles to happen are also likely to vote for a savior that promises them free stuff. I see a huge difference in the voting minds of Americans and Greeks. One of the two is more likely to believe in fairy tales.

While the Renaissance, Protestant Reformation etc, were taking place, the area called Greece today, and much of the Balkans, went from Byzantine to Ottoman rule.

Brexit, Le Pen, Trump, are mere symptoms. It is the elites' fault that they have risen, and they need their time and place in history, in my view. In this age of globalization, there is a pushback forming - a yearning for cultural identity, democratic control, and the feeling of an existential threat the middle classes feel.

I believe in the EU, but the EU elites have to stop being such wusses (for lack of a better term.) They need to push and sell the idea of being "European" and what that means. So far they have failed in that regard. Look to the US for examples. They must form an EU Army, do great things with the European Space Agency, that kind of stuff forms an identity. It inspires. It's all marketing. But Merkel, Hollande, and others are technocratic, put you to sleep in 15 minutes, eggheads that can't think like that.' What Le Pen did in Lebanon a couple of days ago was marketing genius. That stuff really works.

But what being European means according to the EU is being like the Germans. And if you don't like it, tough.

I guarantee if the whole world had the Lutheran work ethic, there would be an overabundance of manufactured goods and a shortage of laughs!

Regarding the outcomes for Catholics and Protestants , I understood that recently more emphasis has been placed on the "education ethic" as opposed to the work ethic side of things. Protestants set up lots of church schools and encouraged girls to attend and read and so outperformed and still do.

[thriftyandboringinohio]

Re: greece again

One point Hudson makes is that the large banks offered loans to Greece knowing good and well they could never repay them.
The banks were counting on EU bailouts combined with strip mining Greece's public assets to make a good profit eventually.
He argues that such banking practices give the borrower good reason to refuse full payment.

[Southernguy]

Re: greece again

Well, ref. religion and the economy; what would one think of a country where 42% of people believe humanity has 10.000 years and humans were created by god in their actual form?
Moreover many schools (if not most of them) teach evolution as just one of the viable theories on the matter?

[gwynedd1]

Re: greece again

One point Hudson makes is that the large banks offered loans to Greece knowing good and well they could never repay them.
The banks were counting on EU bailouts combined with strip mining Greece's public assets to make a good profit eventually.
He argues that such banking practices give the borrower good reason to refuse full payment.

Not a complicated scam. Lend at a higher rate and find the patsie to bail them out.
Most bail outs are aimed at bailing out creditors as most in this forum probably already know.