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    Default predicting the next recession and the future of the economy

    PREDICTING THE NEXT RECESSION and the future of the economy


    i'd like to open a macro discussion about the timing of the next recession and the global economy's path forward. Ej said some time back that he expected a recession by 2018, and I think most people here have been running on that assumption. Certainly the stock, bond and commodity markets have been acting like that might be right. Nonetheless, it hasn't happened yet and although some see the fed's recent actions asa mistake, soon to be “corrected,” the fed, at least, is acting like a recession is not in sight.


    I recently came across an article reporting on ed hyman, an economist I used to follow and someone for whom I had a great deal of respect when I was paying attention to him. Hyman bases his opinion on ongoing interviews with over 300corporate cfo's as well as macro data. Although he's worried about the global debt burden, the headline is: “the next recession is five to six years away.”


    recent rises in inflation, especially the core pce – the fed's favorite indicator-seem to point to a pickup. Otoh, gary shilling points out that about half of that inflation rate is explained by a rise in owner's equivalent rent – a chimera indeed.


    Shilling has been a permabull on bonds, predicting lower interest rates and disinflation or outright deflation for over 30 years running. Otoh, he's beenright for over 30 years running. He's currently predicting more of the same.


    I recently posted in another thread the thought that “the new normal” of 2%, not 3%,growth may be a reflection of a slowdown in technological progress. Others [grg55 for one] have pointed to overcapacity, which is logically equivalent to saying inadequate demand. A recent commentary by immanuel wallerstein [can't post a link- it's not up on his website yet] sees this as the inevitable outcome ofneo-liberalism, in which corporations maximize their profits by squeezing labor costs, while the laborers so squeezed become less and less capable of generating demand. Wallerstein points to international institutions waking up to the risk of inadequate demand. A brief excerpt:


    Ist here what a recent article in Le Monde called a "timid"return by Establishment institutions to concern about sustaining demand? There are at least two signs of this, both of considerable weight. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) had long been the strongest pillar of neoliberal ideology, imposing its requirements on all governments that sought loans from it. However, in a memo released on Feb. 24, 2016, the IMF worried openly about how anemic world demand had become. It urged that finance ministers of the G-20move beyond monetary policies to encourage investments rather than savings in order to sustain demand by creating jobs. This was quite a turn-around for the IMF.

    At about the very same time (February 18), the Organization of EconomicCooperation and Development (OECD), a second major pillar of neoliberal ideology, released a memo that announced a similar turn-around. It said that it was urgent to engage "collectively"in actions that would sustain world demand.

    This reminded me of a recent post I made asking whether we all are becoming japanese. Here's the gist, as I wrote in an email to a friend:


    as i was walking my dog this morning i was thinking about the last several decades in japan. if the neo-keynsians are right, what country has applied more fiscal stimulus than japan? and i think that proportionately china runs a close second. and what i wanted to examine was the possibility that the whole globe is becoming japanese. of course some of japan’s problems are demographic, some are a function of its wealth pushing lower value work to the less developed countries, some of them areself-inflicted. when japan went into the slow lane u.s.commentators were quick to criticize their unwillingness to bear the pain of a quick liquidation of its zombie institutions. those same commentators were not so eager to liquidate zombies during the u.s. financial crisis. and i notice that china doesn’t seem to be in any rush to get rid of its sick soe’s and banks.


    perhaps the world has accumulated a great burden consisting of both huge deb tin every sector and dysfunctional instiutions that drag down potential growth. re the debt, the effect of nirp is interesting in that it squeezes bank margins beyond their ability to make profits by intermediating loans. meanwhile the hy sector is a shambles and is pulling up virtually all corporate rates.
    here’s a graph corporate bb’s, baa’s, a's and aaa's. it is my impression, and please correct me if i’m wrong, that economic growth tends to come fromt he companies that populate the lower tiers of the ratings hierarchy. so what’s happening doesn’t look like a recipe for growth going forward. jeremy grantham has written recently about how he is grappling with the fact that record high corporate profit rates aren’t mean-correcting in the way he anticipated. but if borrowing costs are rising and wages at the low end are rising as well, it appears that profits must start declining.


    thisi s all a long-winded way of asking the question: what will be the source of new growth? chinese growth pulled along growth in the commodity and low-value-added parts of the world. and chinese growth in turn was pulled along by demand from the rich countries ofthe world, especially that consumer of last resort- the u.s. but here’s a graph of personal consumption expenditures and disposable personal income[nominal]. i don’t find it encouraging. can you discern a silver lining? [i am bad at that, myself.]


    so my question: is the world becoming japanese?






    This raises for me another question: does the continuation of the new normal, a sluggish, japanese style global economy, postpone an outright recession?
    Last edited by jk; 03-01-16 at 09:55 AM.

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    Default Re: predicting the next recession and the future of the economy

    [QUOTE=jk;302276]PREDICTING THE NEXT RECESSION and the future of the economy

    Ist here what a recent article in Le Monde called a "timid"return by Establishment institutions to concern about sustaining demand? There are at least two signs of this, both of considerable weight. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) had long been the strongest pillar of neoliberal ideology, imposing its requirements on all governments that sought loans from it. However, in a memo released on Feb. 24, 2016, the IMF worried openly about how anemic world demand had become. It urged that finance ministers of the G-20move beyond monetary policies to encourage investments rather than savings in order to sustain demand by creating jobs. This was quite a turn-around for the IMF.

    At about the very same time (February 18), the Organization of EconomicCooperation and Development (OECD), a second major pillar of neoliberal ideology, released a memo that announced a similar turn-around. It said that it was urgent to engage "collectively"in actions that would sustain world demand.


    This is what I wrote in March last year and is also why I believed the world wasn't heading for a 1937 moment.


    I've been thinking about this (the fact that markets are driven by political decisions) recently and I think it's fair to say that the economy and markets have always been driven politically by powerful groups but in favour of who has always been up for grabs. I think we are transitioning from one in favour of bankers (which we were used to and so could predict) towards one in favour of "other" business interests whose needs are no longer aligned with bankers. However it is not totally clear to the general public that this has happened yet.

    My thinking is that CEOs and executives at SP 500 companies all made out like bandits in the last 25 years along with the bankers with the continuous fall in interest rates etc. However the newer generation of Executives (especially those in the retail sector) can't maintain and justify their pay. Their interests are no longer aligned with those of the banks. The bankers are now denying them a free ride to which they feel they are entitled just like their predecessors.
    Call me optimistic but I don't think we are headed for a 1937 style "mistake". It's just against the interests of too many other powerful lobby groubs. The Starbucks, Apples, GMs, Fords etc of this world depend on consumers in the long run. They depend on disposable income. Now consumers will have to earn their disposable income rather than cash it out of the house. Business knows this. Slow real wage rises are happening and interest rates will be allowed to lag behind without crashing the economy. So called bond vigilantes may demand higher interest rates but they won't have their wishes fulfilled.
    All businesses rely on consumers. But if those consumers are spending all their money on debt servicing and taxes then sooner or later your profits will go down and you may even go out of business and have to wave bye bye to your 10 million dollar salary. The pols don't mind small businesses going to the wall because they don't fund them. What is unique about SP 500 companies is the influence they have. It is now in their interest that consumers are saved from debt whereas previously it was in their interest that consumers took on debt to fund their next purchase.
    Utility/public infrastructure companies will be where investment flows in an attempt to sustain demand. However because of the West having hit "peak consumerism" I am predicting that Africa will be a beneficiary because they are the "last great market" and because migration from Africa is a huge political problem(especially for Europe) going forward. Remember you heard it here first!
    Last edited by llanlad2; 03-01-16 at 06:02 PM.

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    Default Re: predicting the next recession and the future of the economy

    1. profits going down does not impact ceo's salary. that's been my observation, anyway. and they still get a "bonus" on top of that.

    2. everybody talks about infrastructure but no one does much about it, at least in this country. there has to be some private profit to grease the wheels and the pols' palms. is it time to resurrect our long-ago discussion of public-private partnerships?

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    Default Re: predicting the next recession and the future of the economy

    Quote Originally Posted by jk View Post
    2. everybody talks about infrastructure but no one does much about it, at least in this country. there has to be some private profit to grease the wheels and the pols' palms. is it time to resurrect our long-ago discussion of public-private partnerships?
    In the US we still have the infrastructure arrow in our quiver. We can put everyone in the country to work repairing our infrastructure for years. As long as this one is not used, I'm not concerned. A QE supported infrastructure rebuild will come before a massive recession. Of course I could be wrong. If I am, we'll be living in a new world and we'll have to learn to understand it.

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    Default Re: predicting the next recession and the future of the economy

    Quote Originally Posted by santafe2 View Post
    In the US we still have the infrastructure arrow in our quiver. We can put everyone in the country to work repairing our infrastructure for years. As long as this one is not used, I'm not concerned. A QE supported infrastructure rebuild will come before a massive recession. Of course I could be wrong. If I am, we'll be living in a new world and we'll have to learn to understand it.
    the japanese put enormous sums into infrastructure, both useful and superfluous, to little effect. the chinese have done the same to somewhat greater effect, but with enormous misallocation of capital. how do you see it working differently here?

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    Default Re: predicting the next recession and the future of the economy

    Quote Originally Posted by jk View Post
    the japanese put enormous sums into infrastructure, both useful and superfluous, to little effect. the chinese have done the same to somewhat greater effect, but with enormous misallocation of capital. how do you see it working differently here?
    There are degrees of everything, and what is good in small amounts can be bad in large amounts.
    I think it's fair to use the phrase "self-evident" as a reason that appropriate amounts of public infrastructure are good for the economy and for quality of life.

    We used public tax dollars to create our interstate highways; local roads; public schools; municipal water and sewer systems; bridges and tunnels; air traffic control system and airports; ports and harbors....
    The economy of the U.S. has prospered because we have them.

    Building bridges to nowhere, or empty ghost cities, or elaborate palatial office buildings for public workers doesn't help at all.

    Certainly we can tell the difference between the two and rebuild and upgrade our useful public infrastructures.
    If our nation has become so inept that we can't keep the scoundrels and fools from squandering the budgets, well, we are probably doomed regardless.

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    Default Re: predicting the next recession and the future of the economy

    Quote Originally Posted by jk View Post
    the japanese put enormous sums into infrastructure, both useful and superfluous, to little effect. the chinese have done the same to somewhat greater effect, but with enormous misallocation of capital. how do you see it working differently here?
    JK, was every decision taken by your firm or concern, present or past, always the correct one? Surely it has seen its share of misallocated resources, poor estimates, or any number of setbacks, mistakes and sometimes downright incompetence.

    It's a fair question, but I'd follow with another. Why is it that government must be exempt from the ordinary and customary vices that afflict all operations everywhere? Is it really necessary for us to have perfect surety that every decision and dollar spent will achieve its maximum possible efficiency before we act?

    Here it has worked differently and has been successful every time it is applied with enough scale and scope, whereas we have a perfect record of failure with regard to the financial engineering of the past two decades. Will there be waste, fraud and abuse. Yes, count on it. Is that reason enough not to even make a try? Should we condemn the next generations to peonage and wait to act until humanity perfects itself? Does not the prospect of global war motivate you at all to try something, anything rational, to avert that catastrophe?

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    Default Re: predicting the next recession and the future of the economy

    my concern wasn't waste, fraud, abuse or misallocation of funds. it was about efficacy.

    i think appropriate infrastructure investment would pay off in productivity, and also that there are social goods which the gov't should provide irrespective of economic benefits. my question though is about the keynesian idea that fiscal policy can drive economic growth. i think we've dug ourselves into a deep hole with a huge debt burden at all levels and with a sclerotic and corrupted political system which supports a predatory corporate and financial system. i'm wondering if these structural problems - the debt and the corporate-political nexus - trump [sorry] any possible fiscal stimulus.

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    Default Re: predicting the next recession and the future of the economy

    Quote Originally Posted by jk View Post
    my concern wasn't waste, fraud, abuse or misallocation of funds. it was about efficacy.

    i think appropriate infrastructure investment would pay off in productivity, and also that there are social goods which the gov't should provide irrespective of economic benefits. my question though is about the keynesian idea that fiscal policy can drive economic growth. i think we've dug ourselves into a deep hole with a huge debt burden at all levels and with a sclerotic and corrupted political system which supports a predatory corporate and financial system. i'm wondering if these structural problems - the debt and the corporate-political nexus - trump [sorry] any possible fiscal stimulus.
    Those are excellent points, jk.
    We have distorted our economy beyond recognition.

    A rational economy structured in a traditional way has most of GDP in the good old production-consumption activities with a much smaller FIRE sector and a modest government sector completing the pie chart.

    Today we have a huge FIRE sector, and huge government sector, and much smaller slice of the pie as production/consumption.

    I'm not sure Keynes really deserves as much blame as he gets.
    Keynesian stimulus in modest amounts or rare occasions inside a rationally structured economy really does work.

    Your point about our "...sclerotic and corrupted political system which supports a predatory corporate and financial system..." are spot-on.
    High frequency trading, building junk weapons systems, and bank bailouts add no value.
    Central bankers who think "wealth effects" are as good as "wealth" are the inmates running this asylum.

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    Default Re: predicting the next recession and the future of the economy

    Quote Originally Posted by jk View Post
    the japanese put enormous sums into infrastructure, both useful and superfluous, to little effect. the chinese have done the same to somewhat greater effect, but with enormous misallocation of capital. how do you see it working differently here?
    I didn't say it would work jk, only that we will spend trillions to support an infrastructure rebuild before we'll suffer a massive recession. It's better than another war.

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    Quote Originally Posted by santafe2 View Post
    I didn't say it would work jk, only that we will spend trillions to support an infrastructure rebuild before we'll suffer a massive recession. It's better than another war.
    A new New Deal organized along the lines of the public/private partnerships EJ proposes is the only thing between us and the slaughterhouse of WWIII.

    I too share JK's concern about efficacy, but considering how low we've sunk as a nation, how far removed we are from the basic precepts of equality and opportunity everyone of us profess to hold dear as Americans, well in my mind the economics of this are secondary to the the ethics of it. What we do must, with every bit of haste possible, restore America as a land of opportunity where work from all cognitive and physical LABOR is justly and proportionally rewarded and capital is tamed and leashed to serve the public good (remember that ancient concept?).

    In 50 years we have taken America from the most egalitarian and upwardly mobile nation in human history to the most stratified and unequal society at any time in the past, anywhere in the world. And it is getting worse, actually accelerating before our very eyes. The rights of sovereignty and ownership have been permitted to blend together to a point where they are practically indistinguishable, and political power is exercised in the same manner as economic power.

    If this process is permitted to continue to its logical end, we become what for all intents and purposes will be a feudal society similar to Saudi Arabia or Pre-revolutionary Russia, only with nuclear weapons and the largest fleet of carrier battle groups ever thought possible. Our anthems and creeds will be reduced to cruel and bitter punchlines. And none here will have amassed near enough capital in the remaining years before the gates close to save themselves. Count on that. We will all burn together and not one of us will be saved.

    No society has survived such a condition without implosion or explosion. We will demonstrate our exceptionalism one way or another, either by rebuilding America's infrastructure (physical and moral) or destroying her and human civilization along with it.

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    Default Re: predicting the next recession and the future of the economy

    Quote Originally Posted by Woodsman View Post
    A new New Deal organized along the lines of the public/private partnerships EJ proposes is the only thing between us and the slaughterhouse of WWIII.

    I too share JK's concern about efficacy, but considering how low we've sunk as a nation, how far removed we are from the basic precepts of equality and opportunity everyone of us profess to hold dear as Americans, well in my mind the economics of this are secondary to the the ethics of it. What we do must, with every bit of haste possible, restore America as a land of opportunity where work from all cognitive and physical LABOR is justly and proportionally rewarded and capital is tamed and leashed to serve the public good (remember that ancient concept?).

    In 50 years we have taken America from the most egalitarian and upwardly mobile nation in human history to the most stratified and unequal society at any time in the past, anywhere in the world. And it is getting worse, actually accelerating before our very eyes. The rights of sovereignty and ownership have been permitted to blend together to a point where they are practically indistinguishable, and political power is exercised in the same manner as economic power.

    If this process is permitted to continue to its logical end, we become what for all intents and purposes will be a feudal society similar to Saudi Arabia or Pre-revolutionary Russia, only with nuclear weapons and the largest fleet of carrier battle groups ever thought possible. Our anthems and creeds will be reduced to cruel and bitter punchlines. And none here will have amassed near enough capital in the remaining years before the gates close to save themselves. Count on that. We will all burn together and not one of us will be saved.

    No society has survived such a condition without implosion or explosion. We will demonstrate our exceptionalism one way or another, either by rebuilding America's infrastructure (physical and moral) or destroying her and human civilization along with it.
    sinners in the hands of an angry god?

    woodsman, i think your points are well taken but your rhetoric is distractingly over the top.

    "..the most stratified and unequal society at any time in the past, anywhere in the world."
    ancient rome?
    ancient greece?
    the antebellum south?
    anywhere in europe during the middle ages?
    the indian caste system?
    the japanese shogunate?
    need i go on?

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    Default Re: predicting the next recession and the future of the economy

    Quote Originally Posted by jk View Post
    ...need i go on?
    How many Minuteman IIIs did the Japanese shogunate have?

    If only there were a god to save us. Unfortunately, we're all we've got.

    You don't need to go on, jk. We can respectfully disagree on that point. And I stand by my rhetoric as being perfectly appropriate to this moment.
    Last edited by Woodsman; 03-04-16 at 01:06 AM.

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    Default Re: predicting the next recession and the future of the economy

    Quote Originally Posted by Woodsman View Post
    How many Minuteman IIIs did the Japanese shogunate have?

    If only there were a god to save us. Unfortunately, we're all we've got.

    You don't need to go on, jk. We can respectfully disagree on that point. And I stand by my rhetoric as being perfectly appropriate to this moment.
    are minuteman iii's a defining characteristic of a "stratified and unequal society"? really? don't you really mean something different when you mention the missiles? something about the stakes, not about the structure of society? or do you think that the missiles are somehow an expression of social structure? if so, you've got a lot of exposition to provide to make that case.

    i've come to know you as an extraordinarily knowledgeable student of history and politics. i learn things from your posts. but i think you could be more persuasive in making your points if your your writing was more focused and less hyperbolic and scattershot. you of course are free to use whatever rhetoric you choose, but i find it strange that you choose verbal fireworks and showiness in preference to effectiveness. i suppose it makes the writing itself a more entertaining process for you. i know that at times i fall into that same mode myself.

    have you given up on the idea of really persuading anyone here of anything? or on having dialogs which might improve all participants' understanding?
    Last edited by jk; 03-04-16 at 07:36 AM.

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    Default Re: predicting the next recession and the future of the economy

    Jk, do you think it comes down to a matter of style and personal preference?

    You seem to me constitutionally averse to the way I write and express my ideas. I'm just not your kind of writer. And that's entirely fine. I have absolutely no issues with it.

    But please understand, I write first and foremost to satisfy me and no one else. I find that I can do it better and with more impact than if I parse my words and take care to exhibit the proper form - cool sangfroid detachment. Ufck that, I think.

    I used to write for others, express their ideas, advocate for their interests, and advance their knowledge. And I was really good. I made a comfortable living writing the words and ideas of those who paid me. But I don't do than any more and I won't ever do it again.

    I write to communicate what in my mind is of greatest import at any given time or context. I do that in the way I believe is most appropriate to me for the moment. I don't do that for your's or anyone's else's approval. I just don't care about that anymore. All I care about is communicating the truth as I understand it and for no reason I can give you that would be satisfying.

    I guess that's what it means to be a writer and since you are not - although clearly there's nothing stopping you, least of all talent and intellect - I doubt anything I might say on the matter would be convincing.

    You certainly don't have to agree, like or even read. I like reading your posts. I respect your opinions and am grateful for the world of ideas and possibilities you've opened up for me over the past several years. But I'm not changing and if that means I won't convince someone, well okay.

    I find I'm quite convincing to folks open to be convinced. Others just "know" things like Ike was unencumbered and uncorrupted, or that Obama is a socialist and Saul Alinsky was a Satanist, and many other truisms we've seen bandied about here. There's no argument that could possibly alter their views. The more facts one presents them, the harder they close their mind. There's an analogue to that adopted by learned people and specialists and it's harder still to break through.

    So I just write and express what I believe and share those things I've seen and learned. If I can convince a few here and there to consider my ideas and opinions, well that's nice. If not, I don't really care. I'm perfectly content to remain a minority of one. I'm still going to say what I think anyway, at least until EJ tells me I can't do it here anymore.

    iTulipers send me PMs thanking me for giving them a new perspective or encouraging me to keep at it at about the same rate they do diagnosing me with some profound mental illness or defect of character. And some do it publicly (Hi Lake!). It just doesn't rise to a level of meaning to me, jk. I certainly don't do it to bother you but that it bothers some others, well that's the gravy son.

    I think we are the most stratified nation in history. That's what I think and I can make a strong case for it. I'm certainly not alone in thinking that. And I'm willing to entertain the counter-case, so if you want to start a thread, I'll participate. I think it would be more convincing if we could come on up to East Saint Louis or visit every third block in East Fort Lauderdale, or Compton and Overtown and talk there about Gini coeffients and the Tokugawa shogunate. I expect it would clarify the mind and offer a sharper contrast that my (and I hope yours) comfortable and safe environment can't. It would be interesting, anyway.

    But no, I haven't given up. I just do it in a way that's different than you choose to and you don't care for it. I appreciate that we can disagree and even dislike a little and still discuss and debate. I hope that keeps up, but no, I don't think I'll be doing anything differently or changing to accommodate anyone's preferences.


    --------------
    And why can't I write the word I want to use: "F...U...C...K" ?

    It's an English word in daily written and verbal use since 1474. It's been employed by some of the finest authors in the history of the English language and is one of the most plastic and malleable words in the lexicon.

    Its vulgar manifestation lost its shock value sometime around the spring of 1974 and it is part of the vocabulary of low, middle and high falutin' English speakers everywhere. I read it in Newsweek yesterday and it wasn't in a quote or editorial.

    WTF, let's free "F...U...C...K" here at iTulip.

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    Default Re: predicting the next recession and the future of the economy

    want to explain what minuteman missiles have to do with inequality and hierarchy? if you think they're connected i'd like to understand how. do you think a more egalitarian society wouldn't have built them? if we live in the most unequal and hierarchic society in history, can you give me examples of more equal and less hierarchic societies which foreswore military technologies that were available to them?

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    Default Re: predicting the next recession and the future of the economy

    Quote Originally Posted by jk View Post
    want to explain what minuteman missiles have to do with inequality and hierarchy?...
    Jk, I've never known you to be so pedantic? Are you taking your handle "The Brain" of iTulip a bit too seriously today?

    Why are you goading me?

    If you must persist, I'll make it real simple. Work through these papers and then follow-up with me. You'll have to do your own work on this one.
    Last edited by Woodsman; 03-04-16 at 11:03 AM.

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    Default Re: predicting the next recession and the future of the economy

    Quote Originally Posted by Woodsman View Post
    Jk, I've never known you to be so pedantic? Are you taking your handle "The Brain" of iTulip a bit too seriously today?

    Why are you goading me?

    If you must persist, I'll make it real simple. Work through these papers and then follow-up with me. You'll have to do your own work on this one.
    sorry if i'm coming across as pedantic. my intent is to have rational, logical and well-reasoned discussions. if someone says a, therefore b, i want them to explain the connection. the google search you linked to looks interesting, but it puts the arrow of causation in the direction opposite to the one you claimed.

    you can continue to do rants, if that's what entertains you, and i'll continue to do my best to extract useful information from them. as i'm sure you know, i pretty much agree with you on most things. i just think you'd be a more effective advocate for the things we both believe in if you indulged your showmanship a little less.

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    Default Re: predicting the next recession and the future of the economy

    Quote Originally Posted by jk View Post
    sorry if i'm coming across as pedantic. my intent is to have rational, logical and well-reasoned discussions. if someone says a, therefore b, i want them to explain the connection. the google search you linked to looks interesting, but it puts the arrow of causation in the direction opposite to the one you claimed.

    you can continue to do rants, if that's what entertains you, and i'll continue to do my best to extract useful information from them. as i'm sure you know, i pretty much agree with you on most things. i just think you'd be a more effective advocate for the things we both believe in if you indulged your showmanship a little less.
    Jk, if the nexus of income inequality and extreme levels of military spending anywhere and everywhere confounds you, what I can possibly offer you by way of rationality and logic that would suffice? I mean, other than a million links to academic and general publication papers.

    I find it really difficult to accept that someone of your intellect and erudition could doubt that a there's no causality between the highest levels of inequality in American history and the highest levels of war, security and surveillance spending.

    It doesn't occur to you how or why a nation spending 60x more on defense, security and surveillance than its next highest peer competitor would experience significant levels of inequality?

    I very much doubt you've gone through any of those links and the papers therein with enough attention to make any assertions. The very first link by pure happenstance of the Google algorithm shows a nice little abstract.

    ...Empirical estimates reveal that military spending is indeed associated with increasing income inequality, after controlling for macro-economic variables such as taxes, economic growth, interest rates, inflation and non-military spending. The results are generally robust to alternative definitions of both the military spending and income distribution measures.
    Sounds to me like your mind is already made up on this one.

    Anyway, I promised shiny! I'd play nice and I've played so very nice with you today. But the sandbox is getting a little too dirty for me and I hear my Mommy calling.

  20. #20
    jk's Avatar
    jk is online now Shadow Fed, iTulip Select Member, The Brain
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    Default Re: predicting the next recession and the future of the economy

    more inequality than when we had slavery?

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