Daniel Arnold audio

[Spartacus]

"Great Bust Ahead"
This was one of the books that drew the ire of the alleged "recovering doomer" in our "are you a doomer?" thread

he has a slightly different take, a revision to a statistic I've heard bandied about all over the place
"consumer spending is 70% of GDP"

download and listen
http://www.howestreet.com/audio/danarnold123007.mp3

the page the interview is from
http://howestreet.com/

I had wanted to research this more when I read the reference in the doomer article but only got around to it when I saw the audio

D. Arnold's site has some more free info and links to articles summarizing his thesis.
http://www.thegreatbustahead.com/


FRED, let me know if this is too spamific

[Spartacus]

Re: NO replies?

I was hoping people would start posting refutations of the Harry Dent and Daniel Arnold theories.

I'm wondering if on the list of hyperinflations any of them had this circumstance (a boomer peak).

Since Dent's depression doesn't start until 2010 that still leaves 2 years for the iTulip US inflation to begin, then be choked off by Dent's demographics theories

this chart
is spooky

And Dent and Arnold show very high correlation to most of the last 90 years of DJIA (includng the US great depression).

I've been fishing without success for similar data on Italy and Spain - if both countries are a couple of years past the Dent hump (and their recent economic peaks are therefore well past the hump) these would be counter examples to Dent.