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Negative feedback on spending due to oil prices begun

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  • Negative feedback on spending due to oil prices begun

    http://finance.yahoo.com/banking-bud...conomy-Sputter

  • Seven of 10 of those surveyed expect gas prices to be higher a year from now. Only a fifth (22 percent) said they believe prices will be the same and only one in twenty believe they will be lower.
  • An increase of less than another dollar will cause only four in ten to cut back on driving.
  • Of the people who buy gas, three out of five (59 percent) have already cut back on driving. Even more (69 percent) among those with incomes of less than $30,000 a year say they have done so.
  • Nearly one in four (23 percent) say they would not cut back, no matter the cost of gas -- and that's true of 40 percent of those who have not cut back yet.
    More than half (58 percent) say it'll take another dollar a gallon price increase before they'll cut back more on driving.
  • A quarter of Americans say they will cut back a lot on spending for other things as a result of high energy costs. More than two-thirds say they'll cut back on other spending at least a little.
  • Nearly 12 percent of Americans say they will have to borrow money to pay winter heating bills; the figure rises to 23 percent among those earning less than $30,000 a year. Nine percent say they will use their credit cards to be able to afford their heating bills.
  • Seven in 10 Americans (71 percent) say they will lower their thermostats this winter in an attempt to curb heating costs
Not something to panic about just yet; gasoline is still a relatively small portion of the average budget.

However, the multiplier effect is the big question.

Just as the actual imports from China are only $287.1B (in 2006), a reduction of spending due to gas prices increasing 2x could be considerable.

To put this in perspective: there are over 240M vehicles in the United States.

Average gas consumption per passenger vehicle was roughly 550 gallons (in 2002).

Even assuming only 50% of the vehicle number above are passenger and/or active, and assuming $1.50 increase in relative gas price, the result is nearly $99B of spending potentially redirected - although of course also subject to the multiplier effect.

  • #2
    Re: Negative feedback on spending due to oil prices begun

    Then there is the matter of heating oil.
    One in Five Expect to Borrow to Heat Homes This Winter

    For perhaps as many as 27 million American adults, keeping warm this winter will mean borrowing money and 20 million will use credit cards to be able to afford their heating bills, according to a CreditCards.com poll.

    Nearly 12 percent of Americans say they will need to borrow money to pay winter heating bills; 9 percent will need to use credit cards to be able to afford their heating bills. The poll, commissioned by CreditCards.com and conducted by GfK Roper Public Affairs & Media, surveyed 1,004 randomly selected American adults by telephone Dec. 7-9, 2007 to gauge their attitudes about energy costs in 2008. A majority say they expect oil and gasoline prices to get worse in 2008.
    Ed.

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