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Thread: Martin Armstrong reports

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  1. #13
    Join Date
    Mar 2009

    Default Re: Martin Armstrong reports

    Quote Originally Posted by EJ View Post
    I find it a mystery that interest in the magical thinking that goes into technical analysis can coexist on a site that is predicated on making forecasts by means of process analysis. The two approaches are absolutely contrary to each other. One is based on magical thinking, the other on rigorous analysis.

    If one traces the path of a rock rolling down a mountain can the shape of that rock's path tell you anything about where that rock is going to go in the next ten seconds or ten minutes or where it will wind up?

    No but a careful study of the mass, speed, and direction of the rock in combination with a rigorous analysis of the terrain below the rock will help you understand where the rock is likely to be headed and may come to rest. The only factor of the rock's direction you can safely assume is that downward path due to gravity. With the technician's view of charts you don't even have that, nor mass, nor speed, nor direction, and on top of that you are ignoring the contour of the ground below counting entirely on the shape of the path behind the rock.

    It's not logical. I don't get how anyone who thinks logically can give it ten minutes' attention.

    I'm fine with the notion of trading on the expected strong influence of such magical thinking among a trading community within the context of a particular thinly traded stock, commodity, or index, but otherwise technical analysis is no better a tool for market forecasting than astrology and other forms of numerology.
    The issue is that when one believes in magical thinking, logic is not going to convey them from doing otherwise.

    I'm sure there are plenty of trading algorithms that exploit belief in various magical thinking-based trading decisions (if not, it's an opportunity!).

    On top of that, Armstrong's 'secret algorithm' and his refusal to hand it over to others being the supposed reason of his prosecution and imprisonment (I'm sure he'll prefer to call it 'persecution') for me is a major red flag that suggests he's a charlatan.

    Final note: his 'reports' when he was imprisoned had entertaining value though (like zerohedge). People like him probably could have been pretty good writers of fiction if they'd tried (missed their calling?)
    Last edited by FrankL; 04-18-14 at 03:59 PM.
    engineer with little (or even no) economic insight

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