Quote Originally Posted by Woodsman View Post
Thanks, but I think it is worth examining, if only so you know for yourself and come to your own conclusions. I'd start with the methodology and maybe backtest it against real market data. Truth be told, what I really want is another person's perspective who has actually spent time on Armstrong's work. It would be great to have EJ's or Finster's or Raz's perspective, but the guy is radioactive because of his legal woes and generally comes off as a pain in the @ss. So I doubt very much anyone here with good qualifications would bother with him.
I find it a mystery that interest in the magical thinking that goes into technical analysis can coexist on a site that is predicated on making forecasts by means of process analysis. The two approaches are absolutely contrary to each other. One is based on magical thinking, the other on rigorous analysis.

If one traces the path of a rock rolling down a mountain can the shape of that rock's path tell you anything about where that rock is going to go in the next ten seconds or ten minutes or where it will wind up?

No but a careful study of the mass, speed, and direction of the rock in combination with a rigorous analysis of the terrain below the rock will help you understand where the rock is likely to be headed and may come to rest. The only factor of the rock's direction you can safely assume is that downward path due to gravity. With the technician's view of charts you don't even have that, nor mass, nor speed, nor direction, and on top of that you are ignoring the contour of the ground below counting entirely on the shape of the path behind the rock.

It's not logical. I don't get how anyone who thinks logically can give it ten minutes' attention.

I'm fine with the notion of trading on the expected strong influence of such magical thinking among a trading community within the context of a particular thinly traded stock, commodity, or index, but otherwise technical analysis is no better a tool for market forecasting than astrology and other forms of numerology.