View Poll Results: Which Scenario do you think is more likely?

28. You may not vote on this poll
  • EJ's inflationary outcome.

    15 53.57%
  • EJ's deflationary outcome.

    5 17.86%
  • Neither.

    8 28.57%
Results 1 to 12 of 12

Thread: EJ's Rio Van Winkle awakening in 2012.

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  1. #1
    Join Date
    Apr 2006
    Texas>home of GW Bush, Dick Armey, Tom Delay, Phil Gramm

    Default EJ's Rip Van Winkle awakening in 2012.

    Quote Originally Posted by EJ
    You take a five year Rip Van Winkle nap. You wake up in 2012 to find that the debt pyramid has indeed collapsed.
    Perhaps one of these scenarios will prevail.

    Quote Originally Posted by EJ's inflationary outcome.}
    Median Home Price: $450,000 ($225,000 today)
    Median Household Income: $80,000 ($40,000 today)
    30-Year FR Mortgage: 19.5% (6.14%)
    Discount Rate: 18% (5.5%)
    CPI: 20% (3% today)
    Oil: $200/bl
    Imported Car: $80,000 (One year's median income)
    Domestic Car: $40,000 (One half year's median income)
    Cup of Starbucks Coffee: $6 ($3.00 today)
    Quote Originally Posted by EJ's deflationary outcome
    Median Home Price: $100,000 ($225,000 today)
    Median Household Income: $30,000 ($40,000 today)
    30-Year FR Mortgage: 0.5% (6.14%)
    Discount Rate: 0% (5.5%)
    CPI: -4% (3% today)
    Oil: $100/bl
    Imported Chinese Car: $80,000 - due to 50% tarriff (One year's median income)
    Domestic Car: $40,000 (One year's median income)
    Cup of Starbucks Coffee: N/A - out of business ($3.00 today)
    EJ did not say either of these would happen in his post # 15 in the thread Saving, Asset-Price Inflation, and Debt-Induced Deflation He offered them as possible extremes. In voting, the results would be more meaningful to vote in terms of the likelihood of things economic going more one way than the other, that is to say don't think either extreme will necessarily be reached in the entirety of EJ's imaginings.
    Last edited by Jim Nickerson; 02-06-07 at 11:08 AM. Reason: I wish to delete the post, because it is not giving me the "polls tool."
    Jim 69 y/o

    "...Texans...the lowest form of white man there is." Robert Duvall, as Al Sieber, in "Geronimo." (see "Location" for examples.)

    Dedicated to the idea that all people deserve a chance for a healthy productive life. B&M Gates Fdn.

    Good judgement comes from experience; experience comes from bad judgement. Unknown.



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