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Thread: Eric Janszen interviews Recovery Partners' Alex Jurshevski (Part I)

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    Default Eric Janszen interviews Recovery Partners' Alex Jurshevski (Part I)

    Eric Janszen interviews Recovery Partners' Alex Jurshevski (Part I) 23 min.

    "Ask the right questions to get the right answers."


    Expert in sovereign debt restructuring offers his prognosis for the euro and the international monetary system

    Eric Janszen interviews Recovery Partners' Alex Jurshevski (Part I) 23 min.

    • Introduction (e.g., Restructured New Zealand's sovereign debt, advised Iceland)
    • The European sovereign debt crisis has resulted in no major debt restructuring
    • Austerity rarely works at a sovereign level: out of 145 post war period attempts, only two worked
    • Austerity is politically unsustainable and economically counterproductive
    • Targets consumers, causing the economy and the tax base to shrink
    • Austerity has to target the least efficient portions of the economy
    • If the target of economic efficiency improvement is politically protected, then it doesn't happen
    • In Greece the property market is so corrupt that privatization and tax reform is impossible
    • The Green Party mis-identifies New Zealand's bank reform proposals
    • An optimal debt-to-GDP target works long-term to effectively enforce sound fiscal policy
    • The euro started to fall apart when European countries began to ignore the Growth and Stability Pact that established debt-to-GDP and annual budget deficit thresholds (debt-to-GDP < 60% and annual deficit < 3%)
    • Germany was the first to violate it after absorbing Eastern Germany, then France. Now there is no euro zone wide mechanism for fiscal discipline
    • The European banking system will suffer a system collateral quality crisis
    • Global central banks have made a one way bet on interest rates, the Fed is no exception

    Eric Janszen interviews Recovery Partners' Alex Jurshevski (Part II) 22 min. ($ubscriber)

    • Triggers for a global sovereign debt crisis
    • Foreign lenders panic when they realize that they are second in line to domestic holders
    • The Russian example
    • Markets lose confidence on the ability of the central government to cover the budget deficit via taxes receipts or additional borrowing
    • Japan is closer to a bond crisis than most analysts think
    • A rising gold price may indicate a new phase of crisis for the global IMS
    • Why central banks are buying gold
    • China is preparing for the next International Monetary System
    • The institutional framework of the IMS is outmoded and dysfunctional
    • The euro's fatal structural flaws
    • No one wants to sell
    • The euro will eventually fail

    Alex recommends: Lords of Finance: The Bankers Who Broke the World [Paperback]
    Last edited by FRED; 03-26-13 at 10:44 AM.

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