www.bnarchives.yorku.ca/354/01/201302

An interesting way to see if Hollywood is better able to predict the success of a produced movies. The author uses number of opening theatres as a proxy for 'expected success'.

I'm not convinced this is explainable purely by better predictive capability - for one thing there is also significant consolidation in the movie industry.

Having a more tightly consolidated movie industry means that there simply is less competition - and the allocation of marketing/distribution effort, not to mention production dollars, might itself explain the 'consolidation' being seen.

But still an interesting idea.

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