Euro hits 1.36 today and looks like it was hit with a cattle prod. What is going on? I check the chart every hour like a Nervous Nelly. I'm losing my shirt on gold priced in euros, but at least Dollar zone products are cheaper. I'm loading up on Tupperware ;-)
I, for one, am not surprised. Last summer I sold my USD investments since I expected the EUR to appreciate. I expect now that the euro will continue to appreciate, perhaps reaching 1.40-1.45. I am waiting for the 1.40 level to buy USD. After 1.40 is reached perhaps the euro will decline in value. We'll see what happens.
The logic is twofold:
1.- The currency market is driven by appearances more than realities. Last summer the european crisis reached its lowest point and the message was given that Europe would solve its problems, or, at least, that an earnest effort was being made to solve the issues. Perhaps Europe won't solve any problem, but what counts for the currency markets (IMHO) is perception much more than reality. In other words, currencies are marketing-driven.
2.- Some people must make money. A rise from 1.20 to 1.30 wouldn't make enough money. A rise from 1.20 to 1.40 can make the right people very rich.
All I am stating is my own opinion. I could easily be wrong.
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