Quote Originally Posted by Bundi
Is it me or is the oil issue receiving short shrift in these debates, again not so much on this site but in general? Lots of finance/markets focus but I'm struck by how infrequently the interplay with oil is part of specutation on timing of events and thresholds. Society just doesn't seem all that aware of it at this point. Do others see shrinking availability of oil, if this is in fact true and continuing to be the case, as virtually certain to cause a crisis? Wouldn't anyone speculating that the current world dynamic (CB induced stasis) is set to continue as is, for many many years to come, have to account for this issue in such a thesis?
The information you point out concerning percentage of oil exported by oil producers is valid, but the reasons for this shift are cloudier.

For one thing, the primary consumers 30 years ago were the 1st world nations. This is still true today, but the economies and populations of the 1st world nations have largely plateaued. This in turn pretty much guarantees that oil imports aren't going to increase that much.

In contrast the populations of the oil producing nations have by and large exploded in the past 30 years.

So how much of the export shift is due to oil scarcity, as opposed to internal per capita consumption, internal aggregate consumption due to massive population increase, 1st world efficiency increases, etc etc?

On top of this you can pick out the US as a particular outlier. US oil consumption is so outsized compared to the rest of the world that a shift in US oil consumption affects overall worldwide oil industry numbers. The effects on the US economy due to the property bubble very possibly affects both the numbers going up until 2006 as well as the numbers going down since.