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The Economist magazine and Shiller are FOOLS. People lost big money listening to those two clowns. Read the FACTS below
http://www.canada.com/vancouversun/n...54f32c&k=17719
http://www.canada.com/vancouversun/n...54f32c&k=17719
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Re: 20% Gain in 2007 - 2008
Uh huh. Here's some facts.Originally posted by VancouverGoinUp View Post
link to pdfVancouver — Trends still point to moderation ahead
Housing affordability deteriorated across all four main housing segments in the second quarter due to higher house prices and mortgage rates that offset a dip in utilities. Market conditions in Vancouver have loosened up during the year, but conditions remain tilted in favour of a seller’s market and are still supportive of fairly strong price gains. The annual pace of house price growth has slowed during the year from the 18%-20% range to the 10%-12% range. A rising mortgage rate environment compounded with these price gains led to an affordability slide in all four home segments. Even though the trends are gradually shifting to a slower pace and are signalling some moderation ahead, the near-term result is another hit to already-stretched affordability conditions. The newfound ability to extend amortization temporarily offsets affordability pressures in the Vancouver market. For example, an average mortgage payment on a two-storey home in Vancouver is $3230 per month. By extending that mortgage from a 25-year term to a 40-year term, monthly mortgage payments are reduced by roughly $400.
The vast majority of Canadians rank home ownership as a top priority, but are pessimistic about their chances of buying a house in the current market, a new Angus Reid Strategies poll has found.
In the online survey of a representative national sample, nearly four-in-five Canadians (77%) say that owning their own home is one of their primary goals in life. But two-in-three (66%) say that homes in their neighbourhood are overpriced, and half (50%) believe that housing prices in their neighbourhood are only going to get more expensive in the next six months.
For Canadians who own their own homes, nearly all (95%) feel lucky that they bought their homes when they did, and 71 per cent believe their homes are worth the price they originally paid for them. But 74 per cent of homeowners say they would not have the money to put a 20% down payment on their own homes as presently valued.
As well, most Canadians who are presently renting feel that buying a home is out of the question in the current market—65 per cent of this group say that they will be waiting for the market to become more favourable before looking to purchase. And fewer renters than homeowners (58%) feel their residence is worth the monthly price they pay.
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And then there's the larger credit bubble issue...
Canadian banks are struggling to contain a credit crisis that could spiral out of control here more than it has elsewhere because of a lax regulatory regime, sources have told the National Post.
The crisis relates to the market for a complex type of short-term funding known as asset backed commercial paper (ABCP), which had grown out of proportion in this country partly thanks to Canadian rules that were not as tough as in other nations.
"It's a made-in-Canada problem," said Claude Lamoureux, head of Ontario Teachers' Pension Plan. Many people in the market "didn't know or didn't ask questions" because they were making more profits than elsewhere, he added.
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In Canada, the market grew more quickly than in other countries, doubling between 2000 and 2007 to $120-billion, because the Canadian definition of disruption to the market was much narrower than elsewhere.
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By June this year, Canada's ABCP market was about 10% of the size of the market in the United States, although the overall U.S. financial system is proportionately far larger than Canada's.
When concerns surfaced in August about the underlying assets in ABCP -- many of which have included troubled mortgage loans in the U.S. -- some owners of ABCP were caught off guard.
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Re: 20% Gain in 2007 - 2008
Here are the FACTS and how things work in Vancouver. Not the charts and bull that Shiller and the Economist spout
Fact 1: Vancouver has very limited land for building
Fact 2: Consistently voted the best place on earth to live by various non Canadian sources
Fact 3: Hong Kong immigrants are moving the prices.
Fact 4: Vancouver is dirt cheap compared to Hong Kong
Fact 5: Investors from Asia do not rent and value Land only
Fact 6: Canada is a safe place to invest
Fact 7: Asian homeowners have the majority of the earnings "offshore" so the graphs you provide are skewed and represent Joe PipeWrench and Sally Housecoat types who cannot afford this market
Fact 8: Understanding Asian investors styles and preferences is key
Fact 9: Population forecasted to double over the next 20 years
Fact 10: Bring on 10% prime rate cause Vancouver ain't Ever Goin Down!
Fact 11: Vancouver's economy is booming
Fact 12: Sub Prime meltdown was never allowed to occur in Vancouver
You are looking at minimum 50% price increase over the next 5 years - possible more with the 2010 Olympics coming here.
Still time to buy and make millions. Rest assured average house prices will be well in excess of 1 million for the entire region in the near future. Areas like Kitsilano and Point Grey are already over 1 million, and yes we can afford it as a million dollares is chump change for who is buying
Please join is now in lasting prosperity and peace in a beautiful surroundingComment
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Re: 20% Gain in 2007 - 2008
Thank you for your generosity in sharing the glorious joy and pleasant nectar that is the Vancouver housing market. FYI, the Olympics only last a couple of weeks, so don't expect a big bounce in home prices from that.Originally posted by VancouverGoinUp View PostComment
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Re: 20% Gain in 2007 - 2008
5 Reasons to think twice:Originally posted by VancouverGoinUp View Post
1. The Hong Kong "immigrants" mostly come to gain Canadian citizenship - after 5 years of residency they qualify. Usually Mom and the kids stay in Vancouver, and Dad jets back and forth. Once the citizenship is acquired they all move back because they can't stand Canadian taxes. Not exactly the foundation for stable neighbourhoods or long term house prices.
2. Investors from Asia don't rent because they can't legitimately establish residency status required for citizenship as renters.
3. Vancouver's geography does limit land and that means no tract home builders doing what Lennar and Beazer did to Arizona, Nevada and Florida. However, limited land does not mean limited building. Vancouver had the mother of all condo busts in the mid-'90s and it's setting up for one today. If you can't build out, they build up - nothing will stop the contruction industry from overbuilding during a boom. Seattle has the same dynamic.
4. Vancouver is dirt cheap compared to London too. But it's not London (or Hong Kong) and that's exactly why it will NEVER be as expensive as either of those, and a whole lotta other international cities.
5. Vancouver's economy is booming...until they re-elect another NDP (labour-socialist) government in the province. I lived through the first one; I got out before they got voted in again. B.C.'s labour relations suffer from the residue of its unionised mining and forestry roots more than 100 years ago.
Finally, Vancouver is essentially an ugly city in a truly wonderfully beautiful natural setting (when it's not raining).
By the way, have they finally settled the garbage strike????
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Re: 20% Gain in 2007 - 2008
Garbage strike or actually entire City strike is still on and hopefully settled in a couple of weeks with arbitration
You raise some valid points
However just recently released data shows Port Moody an hour east of the City up a stunning 32% in 1 YEAR for an average price of $788,000.
The entire Fraser Valley average house price now $535000. It's like comparing Seattle to Bellingham
IT IS UNREAL AND NO END IN SITEComment
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Re: 20% Gain in 2007 - 2008
2 words: Mean Reversion
;)Comment
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Re: 20% Gain in 2007 - 2008
That's the problem with those reversions. They're always so mean...Originally posted by c1ue View PostComment
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Re: 20% Gain in 2007 - 2008
I think in some areas the reversion won't be just mean, it'll be downright nasty.;)Originally posted by c1ue View PostComment
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Re: 20% Gain in 2007 - 2008
I don't want to sound too harsh with the previous post. I have family in Vancouver, Victoria and Seattle, so there's a strong attachment to the region. However, people really do need to be careful chasing this market... :cool:Originally posted by VancouverGoinUp View PostComment
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Re: 20% Gain in 2007 - 2008
But, but, Vancouvergoinup makes it sound so promising. And all his posts here on other topics have been so reliable. He couldn't possibly be leading us astray on this one, could he?Originally posted by GRG55 View PostComment
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Re: 20% Gain in 2007 - 2008
So, as our token self-selected subject for abuse, pitching nonsense to people who know better, how are you liking iTulip? Selling any property?Ed.Comment
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Re: 20% Gain in 2007 - 2008
only way prices keep going up there in 2008 is the usa has a draft and a few million families with teenage boys bolts for canada.Originally posted by VancouverGoinUp View PostComment
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Re: 20% Gain in 2007 - 2008
I'm thinking the reason he's here is to prep for his real sales calls. We give him the worst objections possible, and he has time to think about ways to overcome them with people who don't know better. We should be asking for a cut, or at least a consulting fee.Originally posted by Fred View PostComment
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