While oil has hit a series of record high price in the past five consecutive days, Mike Rothman, a contrarian and top-ranked energy analyst, says oil is going to land at $45 to $50 in his interview with Barron.com this week:

"When you measure oil demand in a developing world economy, you're looking at disappearance, because the data for actual consumption by countries is very difficult to come by, and in many cases nonexistent. Then the question is whether that volume makes sense given other types of data. All I know is that for the last three years, I've revised my numbers down for China. It is not that they are not having oil-demand growth, but it is not 15%. It is 5%. It is 4%. It is 6%. It is 3%. It ain't 15%"

"It is very hard for me to say that I am a bear when I think oil is going to land at $45 to $50; historically, oil prices eventually settling at $45 to $50 is quite high. But compared to what the market is pricing and compared to probably most of my contemporaries, my forecast makes me a bear. We recommend underweighting the sector right now." (full article..)

How likely is oil going to land at $45 a barrel? And should investors be underweight the energy sector?