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More fun with Fukushima: peer reviewed paper on radiation measurements

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  • More fun with Fukushima: peer reviewed paper on radiation measurements

    This is interesting, and does a good job of putting into perspective what the levels of radioactivity mean: the Fukushima spike was equivalent to 1.5x a major solar event - at least in terms of radioactive sulphur dioxide.

    http://wattsupwiththat.com/2011/08/1...de/#more-45107

    Fig. S1. 35SO4 2− and 35SO2 activity at La Jolla calculated from the Moving Box model.

    On the 3rd day, the moving box passes over the region near to Fukushima and acquires the spike in activity from the BuL at Fukushima. 35SO4 2− activity observed on the 10th day at La Jolla agrees with the observation. Approximately 0.7% of 35SO4 2− reached La Jolla during the trans-Pacific transport. Figure from the paper SI

    First quantitative measure of radiation leaked from Fukushima reactor

    Observations of radioactive sulfur that formed when seawater was used to cool reactors and spent fuel ponds reveal the amount of radiation leaked from damaged fuel

    Atmospheric chemists at the University of California, San Diego, report the first quantitative measurement of the amount of radiation leaked from the damaged nuclear reactor in Fukushima, Japan, following the devastating earthquake and tsunami earlier this year.

    Their estimate, reported this week in the early, online edition of the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, is based on a signal sent across the Pacific Ocean when operators of the damaged reactor had to resort to cooling overheated fuel with seawater.

    "In any disaster, there’s always a lot to be learned by analysis of what happened,” said senior author Mark Thiemens, Dean of the Division of Physical Sciences at UC San Diego. “We were able to say how many neutrons were leaking out of that core when it was exposed.”

    On March 28, 2011, 15 days after operators began pumping seawater into the damaged reactors and pools holding spent fuel, Thiemens’ group observed an unprecedented spike in the amount of radioactive sulfur in the air in La Jolla, California. They recognized that the signal came from the crippled power plant.

    Neutrons and other products of the nuclear reaction leak from fuel rods when they melt. Seawater pumped into the reactor absorbed those neutrons, which collided with chloride ions in the saltwater. Each collision knocked a proton out of the nucleus of a chloride atom, transforming the atom to a radioactive form of sulfur.

    When the water hit the hot reactors, nearly all of it vaporized into steam. To prevent explosions of the accumulating hydrogen, operators vented the steam, along with the radioactive sulfur, into the atmosphere.

    In air, sulfur reacts with oxygen to form sulfur dioxide gas and then sulfate particles. Both blew across the Pacific Ocean on prevailing westerly winds to an instrument at the end of the pier at UC San Diego’s Scripps Institution of Oceanography where Thiemens’ group continuously monitors atmospheric sulfur.

    Using a model based on NOAA’s observations of atmospheric conditions the team determined the path air took on its way to the pier over the preceding 10 days and found that it led back to Fukushima.

    Then they calculated how much radiation must have been released. “You know how much seawater they used, how far neutrons will penetrate into the seawater and the size of the chloride ion. From that you can calculate how many neutrons must have reacted with chlorine to make radioactive sulfur,” said Antra Priyadarshi, a post-doctoral researcher in Thiemens’ lab and first author of the paper.

    After accounting for losses along the way as the sulfate particles fell into the ocean, decayed, or eddied away from the stream of air heading toward California, the researchers calculated that 400 billion neutrons were released per square meter surface of the cooling pools, between March 13, when the seawater pumping operation began, and March 20, 2011.

    The trace levels of radiation that reached the California coast never posed a threat to human health. “Although the spike that we measured was very high compared to background levels of radioactive sulfur, the absolute amount of radiation that reached California was small. The levels we recorded aren’t a concern for human health. In fact, it took sensitive instruments, measuring radioactive decay for hours after lengthy collection of the particles, to precisely measure the amount of radiation,” Thiemens said.

    Concentrations a kilometer or so above the ocean near Fukushima must have been about 365 times higher than natural levels to account for the levels they observed in California.

    The radioactive sulfur that Thiemens and his team observed must have been produced by partially melted nuclear fuel in the reactors or storage ponds. Although cosmic rays can produce radioactive sulfur in the upper atmosphere, that rarely mixes down into the layer of air just above the ocean, where these measurements were made.

    Over a four day period ending on March 28th, they measured 1501 atoms of radioactive sulfur in sulfate particles per cubic meter of air, the highest they’ve ever seen in more than two years of recordings at the site.

    Even intrusions from the stratosphere – rare events that bring naturally produced radioactive sulfur toward the Earth’s surface – have produced spikes of only 950 atoms per cubic meter of air at this site.

    The nuclear reaction within the cooling seawater marked sulfur that originated in a specific place for a discrete period of time. That allowed researchers to time the transformation of sulfur to sulfur dioxide gas and sulfate particles, and measure their transport across the ocean, both important factors for understanding how sulfate pollutants contribute to climate change.

    “We’ve really used the injection of a radioactive element to an environment to be a tracer of a very important process in nature for which there are some big gaps in understanding,” Thiemens said.

    The event also created a pulse of labeled sulfur that can be traced in the streams and soils in Japan, to better understand how this element cycles through the environment, work that Thiemens and colleagues in Japan have already begun.

    ###

    I’ve located what should have been in the press release, and added the graph above too:
    Reference
    1. Priyadarshi, A. , Dominguez, G. & Thiemens, M. H. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2011/08/11/1109449108.abstract (2011).

    Data Supplement:

  • #2
    Re: More fun with Fukushima: peer reviewed paper on radiation measurements

    As usual, I am lost. The methodology makes an inference about the concentration of sulfur from Fukushima, 6000 miles away and 10 days back into the past.

    I have no problem that the sulfur-oxides at San Diego came from Fukushima, but to say that the concentration at Fukushima was 365 times background level of sulfur is---well it is fishy. Mysterious NOAA models allowed these eco-frauds to make such an inference, but I am not satisfied..... Too much speculation here for me. These eco-frauds knew of every gust of wind from San Diego back through time for 10 days, all the way back to Fukushima....... Excuse me, but my pants are wet, laughing!

    I know that I am missing something here, but what is it? Yes, the sulfur came from Fukushima, but so what? The problem is inferring the concentration at Fukushima, and they can not do it.

    Comment


    • #3
      Re: More fun with Fukushima: peer reviewed paper on radiation measurements

      Radioactive sulphur dioxide doesn't normally occur anywhere except the upper atmosphere.

      The structure of the atmosphere is such that such radioactive particles rarely mix down into the lower atmosphere.

      As such measuring radioactive sulphur dioxide - formed when seawater containing sulphur was passed through Fukushima reactors in the post-tsunami emergency cooling - is arguably a good indicator for radiation release from Fukushima.

      And the levels measured are so tiny that is really takes a lot of work to find and measure it. It isn't nothing, but is roughly 1.5 times a severe solar flare event.

      To put this in perspective: flying in a plane during a normal solar flare gives you something like 3 X-rays equivalent. It isn't nothing, but it definitely isn't Mad Max/deformed mutants roaming the earth.

      Commercial pilot cancer rates are also nearly identical to the normal population; these pilots receive far more upper atmosphere radiation than anyone else. Even then the rates are difficult to attribute to radiation because most of them are also ex-military and have been exposed to god knows what during their military careers.

      Or: nothing to see here. Move along.

      Comment


      • #4
        Re: More fun with Fukushima: peer reviewed paper on radiation measurements

        More data that's supposed to explain away any nuclear power reservations. And yet the major utility company of Japan may go bankrupt with the post-meltdown costs.

        This yawning gap between two worlds, the pro nuclear lobby and the ever-mounting costs, simply doesn't pass the smell test.

        To be convinced, through the force of argument that all the cost from 3-Mile Island to Chernobyl to Fukushima is all unnecessary, doesn't do much to unwind these costs.

        With Peak Cheap Energy an everyday reality, nuclear power may be a necessity. I don't know. But knowing its true cost goes a long way to understanding the near-future energy environment.

        Comment


        • #5
          Re: More fun with Fukushima: peer reviewed paper on radiation measurements

          TEPCO's Fukushima costs are not due to nuclear power; they are due to the 9.0 earthquake and 35 foot tsunami. Everything was affected or wiped-out in Fukushima City due to the earthquake and tsunami. That is life in North-eastern Japan, and always has been.

          If you live in New Orleans which is below sea-level, you expect catastrophic flooding, not to mention, hurricanes. If you live on the High Plains of North America, you expect blizzards and hurricane-speed winds, not to mention droughts and dust storms. If you live in Canada or Russia, you expect dark, cold, and long winters, not to mention the occasional Ice Age. As with Fukushima, none of this has anything to do with the costs of nuclear power.

          Certain locations are better than other locations for the long-term economic viability of a nuclear power plant. But the decision about where to locate an atomic power plant should be left up to the power industry. It should not be determined by environmental regulators in government nor the pantheon of anti-nuclear pressure groups.

          Comment


          • #6
            Re: More fun with Fukushima: peer reviewed paper on radiation measurements

            The inference of 1.5 times the radiation one would receive from a major solar flare on the Earth implies a negligible dose of radiation. But negligible or not, whatever the inference is, I want the methodology to be clear. Using NOAA's so-called, "box models" is like using black magic to me.

            And then, there is the small problem of where in Fukushima is the inference made? In the City of Fukushima? At TEPCO's plant gate? Above the TEPCO plant site? At the containment wall of the reactors, if so, which one and when? Inside the containment wall, if so, which reactor and when? Outside TEPCO's plant gate at the sea shore? Out at sea near the TEPCO plant?

            As usual, I am lost. Science, if it is truly science, is supposed to be precise and clear. The results have to be verifiable, even by morons like myself. Honest science is transparent. It is not hidden within special models in the hands of so-called "experts", in this case the so-called, "box model" at NOAA. Nor is honest science model dependent. Real science is done with observations and published calculations.

            Finally, this work appears to come from the Scripps Institute of Oceanography, a hot-bed of so-called, "experts" in the ecology movement. Am I correct? Also, NOAA's box model comes from Hansen, the guy who mislead everyone with his global warming models. Am I correct?

            Comment


            • #7
              Re: More fun with Fukushima: peer reviewed paper on radiation measurements

              Originally posted by don
              More data that's supposed to explain away any nuclear power reservations. And yet the major utility company of Japan may go bankrupt with the post-meltdown costs.

              This yawning gap between two worlds, the pro nuclear lobby and the ever-mounting costs, simply doesn't pass the smell test.
              I'm unsure how this article 'explains away' anything. It is data, no more no less.

              As for costs, I'd suggest that you consider what the 'normal' operating costs are vs. a literally 10x worst case scenario - which is what Fukushima is.

              As has been mentioned before, Fukushima was not designed for a 9.0 magnitude earthquake. Its design margin was for an 8.0 magnitude earthquake which is 10x weaker than what actually occurred (the earthquake scale is logarithmic).

              Even then it seems quite clear that Fukushima survived the earthquake quite well. However, the subsequent 14 meter tsunami overwhelmed the already damaged plant.

              Fukushima could have survived the tsunami by itself, and did survive the earthquake, but was not able to survive both.

              EJ has argued that there is better technology - and that is true today. However, Fukushima was built 40 years ago, and was slated to stop operations in 5 years.

              So you can say that TEPco's financial situation is extreme, but there is no company anywhere in the world that can be adequately prepared for a literal worst case scenario.

              You could as easily blame the infrastructure damages from the Loma Prieta earthquake on 'shoddy workmanship' - and which were absorbed by the US federal and California state government, but of course Loma Prieta damages are treated as an act of God while Fukushima is somehow the fault of the nuclear industry.

              A huge earthquake right near any of the large dams in California, Oregon, and Colorado would equally cause critical or even fatal infrastructure and thus financial damage to those respective utilities - does this in any way matter in terms of the operational costs of hydroelectric dams?

              I'd also note that the situation with Fukushima is dramatically different than Chernobyl and TMI: the latter two were arguably attributable to human error.

              I have yet to see any credible evidence that Fukushima was the result of human error; perhaps the damage may have been reduced but even that is quite unclear.

              Comment


              • #8
                Re: More fun with Fukushima: peer reviewed paper on radiation measurements

                Originally posted by Starving Steve View Post
                As usual, I am lost. Science, if it is truly science, is supposed to be precise and clear. The results have to be verifiable, even by morons like myself. Honest science is transparent. It is not hidden within special models in the hands of so-called "experts", in this case the so-called, "box model" at NOAA. Nor is honest science model dependent. Real science is done with observations and published calculations.
                Actually, I think that most people, not just scientists, understand that while science does have to be precise, it does not have to be "clear" to or "verifiable" by morons. (your word choice, not mine) To expect that every study conducted should be so simple that it can be easily reproduced by the average man-in-the-street stretches credulity.

                It is clear that you have great disdain for experts. Would you rather have policy decided by those individuals who have difficulty reading, much less reproducing, peer-reviewed publications?

                The scientific process is far from perfect, but it does have the advantage of being ultimately self-correcting, unlike armchair polemics.

                Comment

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