You're not going to believe this - Eric Janszen

[jk]

Re: You're not going to believe this - Eric Janszen

I wondered that too. I had specifically held off buying any in the low 20's since I didn't see anything touting it here and always worried about its industrial use affecting its value when the facade of money printing faded. I certainly could have missed it though, as I was only a periodic reader for reasons I've gone over before.

one more thing. i just took note of your reason for holding off on buying silver: you had doubts about it as an investment, and you needed someone to "tout" it to you in order to be convinced. and now, it seems, perhaps you feel slightly cheated that you missed it.

you may be better off with a financial advisor, or more of the trading "tout" sheets you read, which tell you what to do. this site doesn't really tell you what to do. it teaches you how to think.

[LargoWinch]

Re: You're not going to believe this - Eric Janszen

i don't recall that ej ever officially recommended buying silver.

I recall EJ referring to silver as a "tweener" back in the early to mid 2000s (sorry cannot find the article). EJ has never been bullish on silver publicly unlike gold.

[aaron]

Re: You're not going to believe this - Eric Janszen

OK, then, where is the silver that EJ said he started buying in 2001 and held until selling it all earlier this year?

Silver was a rounding error in EJ's portfolio. It was hardly worth mentioning.
However, there have been many conversations about silver since I joined the site--> I would not have bought it otherwise. There were many convincing arguments for it being an under-priced asset. That was when it was $14 . There are no convincing arguments to me that $43 dollars is under-priced. That is not to say it will not go higher (I kept 60% of my silver, so I am still hoping), but I just do not see where the huge demand will come from. Silver's demand is mainly industrial. When that demand drops I do not think investor demand will fill the gap. And, if it does not, the price could plummet dramatically.

[FRED]

Re: You're not going to believe this - Eric Janszen

You miss the point I was trying to make. The site isn't garbage. I was illustrating relative effort/value vs a more tangible service. A business with significant overhead (ever buy a garbage truck?) can literally drive to my home in a rural area, down a driveway, empty cans of refuse, drive it to a dump, pay a fee, etc. four times a month for ONE customer and make just $20 for all that effort and expense. If they want another $20, they have to do it all over again for another customer.

You also show a lack of understanding of what's involved in performing a tangible service. Just one minute in front of a home, eh? Do they teleport to my home? No, they drive from a location in an industrial area over 45 minutes from my home. They have a route that (I speak to the owner) covers a wide area of my county. It's not a row of development homes where everyone has to use the same garbage company. It's my house, then another a mile down the road, then two on one street, etc, etc. Yet for a whopping $5 they do all this w/o fail. When full, they then have to take the refuse periodically to a dump located even further out, wait in line, drive to a designated location, dump it, then resume the route. On top of that are environmental and other regulations that a website doesn't have. They also do all this in the elements, rain or shine. Not in a climate controlled office in front of a PC. So, in contrast, one figures a website with maybe thousands of subscribers paying $20-$30/mo each can get it together enough to have an associate read over a column for half an hour once every 4-6 weeks or so and fix the awkward writing without it being considered the equivilent of kicking Jerry Lewis off the MS telethon merely to suggest that.

In contrast, a website can do the (of course much more complex and time consuming and higher skilled ) work ONCE, post it to a website, and charge hundreds or thousands of people $20-$30 a month for the work. In return it might be nice to get "for sure" one update a month. I simply posit that perhaps this lack of perceived or real value could account for the relatively lower visitor count. It would be the height of arrogance for any business to feel it doesn't have to deliver what customers want. Hypothetically, the attitude of "I'm smarter than you, take it or leave it, I'll do what I feell like" will result in many deciding quickly to 'leave it'.

I subscribe to other financial experts where I get not only a monthly update (rivaling the detail here) but a weekly update, (some are daily!) plus special updates if something significant happens. $5-$12/month. Some are "trading" people, others are macro/long term oriented. Some have come-ons for more expensive services I don't want. But their updates are magically free of typos, use professional looking charts/graphs, lack grammatical errors, run-on sentences, and are a breeze to read. I just checked my fidelity.com account this morning and in the last 12 month period my return was 37.8% (8.5% ytd including the recent crash) so I'm not complaining. It's 10.8% over the last 5 year period even though 1.5 of those years were when I was in money markets only because I didn't know squat and the rest were during a bad recession with a brief period of stimulus inspired growth. Eric Janszen's chapter on gold in a book I read in 2007 is at least half of why I made money while others lost it. But every other expert I use said buy 30-40% gold, plus I made more in other things not suggested here. So for that reason I have to reject the "nobody else but EJ has a clue" comments I'm seeing and the deity-like reverence. I accept what I think makes sense and discard their other advice I feel may not be right. Do the others make more "wrong" calls? Probably. But when you are in gold and treasuries and satisfied with 8-9% those swinging for the fences are bound to make more mistakes.

With limited time and money to invest in a multitude of "advice" on economics by more knowledgeable people, it's not unfair , for one's $30, to assume one can give reasonable feedback w/o being labled some sort of troublemaker. And I didn't realize one had to be "first" to mention any flaws for it to count. If nobody says anything, how do they count how many users are dissatisfied?

GM, Ford, and Chrysler got great results with that attitude, didn't they? "Quit complaining, things are fine! If you don't like it go buy something else buddy".

You obviously do not understand this site. You are not the first.

You focus on unimportant things.

You repeat the same complaints over and over.

iTulip is not as a burger joint that serves the same hamburger every day, reliably.

Most of the time we are closed as we are busy inventing a completely new and original new dish.

Each new dish takes hundreds of hours to invent. Only we can do it. No one else can do it.

Read the comments on the latest article from the subscription area. For example:

Another superb and completely original article. Thank you so much for letting us into your deep understanding.

Based on your advice, my father has managed to keep his small retirement savings and I have benefited enormously.

Thank you for standing up for the little guy. You are a " Kazoo Virtuoso".

These readers understand us. You do not.

The reaction you are getting is the same as if you as a new customer went into a restaurant that the long-time clientele have come to love as it is and said, "The food sucks. The service sucks. The food sucks. The service sucks. The food sucks. The service sucks. The food sucks. The service sucks. The food sucks. The service sucks..."

You are annoying the customers.

If you were truly interested in improving the site you'd take a more constructive approach.

You'd send suggestions via PM to me as our dedicated readers do, which suggestions we are busy incorporating into the new site, for them.

Is it your intention to get yourself banned? I'm obligated to do so if you persist in annoying our members.

[Thailandnotes]

Re: You're not going to believe this - Eric Janszen

S&R,

I don’t come to this site for investment advice. I read it, number one, because members post links to articles I would never bump into on my own and because Itulip quickly filters the financial BS from Bloomberg, the NYT, and other US publications. The discussions are polite. Partisan politics are usually shunned. Speculation about future financial upheaval is sharp. First-hand reports from overseas often correct what’s being parroted in the press. I do own gold and expect one day to hear solid advice slightly before the SHTF.

[jiimbergin]

Re: You're not going to believe this - Eric Janszen

You obviously do not understand this site. You are not the first.

You focus on unimportant things.

You repeat the same complaints over and over.

iTulip is not as a burger joint that serves the same hamburger every day, reliably.

Most of the time we are closed as we are busy inventing a completely new and original new dish.

Each new dish takes hundreds of hours to invent. Only we can do it. No one else can do it.

Read the comments on the latest article from the subscription area. For example:

Another superb and completely original article. Thank you so much for letting us into your deep understanding.

Based on your advice, my father has managed to keep his small retirement savings and I have benefited enormously.

Thank you for standing up for the little guy. You are a " Kazoo Virtuoso".

These readers understand us. You do not.

The reaction you are getting is the same as if you as a new customer went into a restaurant that the long-time clientele have come to love as it is and said, "The food sucks. The service sucks. The food sucks. The service sucks. The food sucks. The service sucks. The food sucks. The service sucks. The food sucks. The service sucks..."

You are annoying the customers.

If you were truly interested in improving the site you'd take a more constructive approach.

You'd send suggestions via PM to me as our dedicated readers do, which suggestions we are busy incorporating into the new site, for them.

Is it your intention to get yourself banned? I'm obligated to do so if you persist in annoying our members.

Thank you Fred!

[jneal3]

Re: You're not going to believe this - Eric Janszen

You obviously do not understand this site. You are not the first.

You focus on unimportant things.

You repeat the same complaints over and over.

iTulip is not as a burger joint that serves the same hamburger every day, reliably.

Most of the time we are closed as we are busy inventing a completely new and original new dish.

Each new dish takes hundreds of hours to invent. Only we can do it. No one else can do it.

Read the comments on the latest article from the subscription area. For example:

Another superb and completely original article. Thank you so much for letting us into your deep understanding.

Based on your advice, my father has managed to keep his small retirement savings and I have benefited enormously.

Thank you for standing up for the little guy. You are a " Kazoo Virtuoso".

These readers understand us. You do not.

The reaction you are getting is the same as if you as a new customer went into a restaurant that the long-time clientele have come to love as it is and said, "The food sucks. The service sucks. The food sucks. The service sucks. The food sucks. The service sucks. The food sucks. The service sucks. The food sucks. The service sucks..."

You are annoying the customers.

If you were truly interested in improving the site you'd take a more constructive approach.

You'd send suggestions via PM to me as our dedicated readers do, which suggestions we are busy incorporating into the new site, for them.

Is it your intention to get yourself banned? I'm obligated to do so if you persist in annoying our members.

Just read thru the thread; my take is, people who are macro-economic experts (of which I am not) and able to recognize original thought when they see it are drawn to this site for that reason alone, and to interact with their peers. People who are experts themselves in their own field (of which I immodestly proclaim myself to be) are able to recognize expertise and original thought in other fields and are drawn to this site to learn, and, speaking for myself, to survive the current turmoil. All other considerations are noise. I pray this site does not change.

[Jay]

Re: You're not going to believe this - Eric Janszen

EJ, could you direct me to pre-crash links that show that you made it clear that when you referred to disinflation what you were really talking about was a brief period of deflation? I missed that along the way.

Thanks.

[tmicou]

Re: You're not going to believe this - Eric Janszen

EJ, could you direct me to pre-crash links that show that you made it clear that when you referred to disinflation what you were really talking about was a brief period of deflation? I missed that along the way.

Thanks.

Jay, I think you'll find it here http://www.itulip.com/forums/showthr...tion+deflation , unless by pre-crash you mean pre-2001.

[DemonD]

Re: You're not going to believe this - Eric Janszen

It's been a very long time since I posted here, but I feel the need to respond to this thread.

First, I want to make it clear that the reason I don't post anymore is that after about 2008, I felt like everything that was going on was the same thing, over and over - basically our government trying to spend our way out of a mess with more borrowing, and after I understood that, I felt that there really wasn't much of a reason to continue reading what I felt was the same thing, over and over (this is on itulip as well as other sites).

I do read mish's blog, however, because I find many of his posts on unions and government bankruptcies interesting, as well as posting some interesting videos. However I am not a mish shill.

My reply to this thread is that I am fairly appalled at the responses by many of you. I'll try to hit the things that I felt most galling:

-The first post makes the claim that he has been "consistently right for 10+ years." No one has been 100% for that long. Has EJ gotten more right than wrong? Sure, and his portfolio reflects that. But he is not an omniscient god.

-The complete ignoring of the fact that we did have an actual deflation, not disinflation. Even if it was only for a short time, you have to admit that EJ was wrong there.

-The strict defensiveness to "ka-poom" theory. It didn't happen in a quick timeframe... so now the argument is that "just because it didn't happen yet, it doesn't mean it won't happen." Well I could just as easily argue that "just because deflation didn't happen yet, it doesn't mean it won't happen." You can't have it both ways. You can't call EJ right and Mish wrong on deflation. I can't recall mish claiming for prolonged deep deflation, but for the past few years he has been calling for periods of deflation with the US going "in and out of recession" for many years to come, similar to Japan. http://www.itulip.com/kapoomtheory.htm - there it is. There are elements there that are correct, and others that are not. Those of you defending EJ at all cost and calling mish an idiot I find are very immature both towards mish, and towards your dogged defensiveness with EJ.

-EJ also makes the claim of using war for an excuse to inflate... here's the quote:

It's my opinion that this argument will come up again in the not too distant future, to provide the political cover to justify a higher inflation rate, but that's a story for another day.

We've been in 2 expensive wars for almost 10 years now. Doesn't seem to have had that much of an inflationary effect. The mysterious "we'll talk about it later" raises a yellow flag for me too.

-Others make the claim about Mish wanting traffic. Excuse me, but anyone who makes their living off of the internet wants traffic. I could argue that EJ has MORE of an incentive for traffic, since he offers a subscription, where Mish does not.

-Those of you claiming that Mish is just a shill for his fund, I never felt like that reading his blogs. Those of you saying how mish's fund is awful and loses money, sure in the past 2 years it's not done well. A large part of that fund is short stocks. You're not going to do well in a fund like that in a rising stock market. But in 2008, when the stock market went down a lot, that fund way outperformed. Overall the return since inception has been about the same as the greater stock market. Any investor is going to have ups and downs. My argument here is that I don't think it's fair to criticize Mish's calls based on the mutual fund he consults for, since the stated goal of the fund is to have a large short position in stocks.

-I'm generally very uneasy with many commenter responses that are not backed up by links to specific quotes, as well as others that basically call mish an idiot or a moron without refutation. Here are some examples:

Prechter and Mish keep predicting some sort of major deflationary collapse ala the great depression and each time the date has arrived they move it back like those strange doomsday prophets in the news.

I've come across so many Mish followers all over the interwebz who recite Mish articles verbatim and immediately declare themselves "the winner"...

Just a personal note on an interesting interwebz pathology; one case where "law of attraction" actually works. Maybe Mish should go on chOPRAH?

*Note: I feel like a post like this accurately reflects "interwebz pathology"

Besides being a paid shill for a fund management firm, Mish's own idiocy was more than enough to proclaim the value of his 'analysis' in just 3 weeks back in 2006 - when I was first looking around for outside economic opinion and analysis.

I would take Eric Janszen's analyses on used toilet paper published biennially before Mish's cut-and-paste drivel any day. Your judgement suggests a profound lack of appreciation for the valuable content here. EJ is a man who actually gives a shit.

I suspect close to 100% of EJ's select members would agree; I for one, sure do.

*Selection bias. Those of us who do not frequent itulip or are a select member would not feel the same.

EJ has never forecasted hyperinflation. Not once.

He did forecast high inflation though, and he was right for a short time in the early/mid 2000s. Mish for quite some time has been calling for low inflation/occasional deflation ala Japan for quite some time now.

Mish is an idiot and a hack.

He is, however, a masterful populist.

He's spreading false or incomplete and/or spun etc. data to many folk (as many have noted in specifics on this thread), and in my opinion many of them will get hurt - some very substantially. And the way I've seen him spin EJ's and iTulip's thoughts and research etc. is well beyond the pale, to say the least... and adding nothing about my personal experiences with him either.

Bravo Eric, love your work. did i spell your name right?

mishmash is a cut/paste/comment blogger who spews crackpot ideas/criticisms/interpretations of serious hard work done by pro analysis.... a notch above glen beck... but only 1 notch. if mishmash ratchets up the populist bs & delivers 2x more silly/simplified theories on economics, he shall be as popular as beck used to be... before he got carried away & lost his nut.

Sometimes douchebags have to be called out or they go on forever. Sounds like EJ turned both cheeks before posting this.

*Frankly, I really don't understand why everyone is such a Mish hater. The article in which Mish mentions EJ even praises him for a gold call, while at least attempting to relatively disagree with him. Mish and EJ disagree - there is no shock in that. Regarding Mish misspelling EJ's name... he made a mistake. If you go look at the article, the name has been corrected. Every single person who has ever written anything has made some sort of grammatical or spelling error; we need not attribute it to malice. I go by a personal axiom of "Never attribute to malice what can be attributed to incompetence." I think incompetence is maybe too strong a word, but he misspelled a word there.

Mish even admits, that by EJ's definitions, EJ was right. Here's the quote:

Finally, Janszen's definition of inflation pertains to the purchasing power of the dollar and prices of goods and services. By that definition, Janszen has been generally correct. Prices, have generally gone up except for very short periods of time.

One final note, something that also bothers me very much in people who turn a blind eye to certain data:

Your statement is accurate if you include the 2008 - 2009 deflation period, but is not accurate otherwise.

-Robert Shiller recently responded to Jeremy Siegel (via a yahoo video) regarding the Shiller 10-year trailing P/E ratio, where Siegel criticized Shiller for including 2008. Shiller's response basically was "Why would I take out a down period? Economies have down period, so it would be dishonest to not include it." Removing what you feel is an "outlier" because it doesn't fit your theory is the height of statistical manipulation, in my opinion.

The bottom line in my opinion is that there is room in the financial advice-sphere for both Mish and EJ. The tone of this article and the responses I find has been very hostile, which I do not think is productive. Mish does use vitriol in some of his posts, which makes him appear blunt and opinionated - and it makes for interesting reading. Most of the time this is directed towards governmental figures who favor financial bailouts at the expense of the general populace. I would think that most of the itulip crowd would find it hard to argue with anger at those types of people. Maybe some of you guys should read more of Mish's current stuff and come to an opinion, as opposed to just blindly bashing him. No one ever said you have to agree with what someone writes. Most of his articles are fairly short and are eminently readable.

[bart]

Re: You're not going to believe this - Eric Janszen

...
First, I want to make it clear that the reason I don't post anymore is that after about 2008, I felt like everything that was going on was the same thing, over and over - basically our government trying to spend our way out of a mess with more borrowing, and after I understood that, I felt that there really wasn't much of a reason to continue reading what I felt was the same thing, over and over (this is on itulip as well as other sites).

Your option to feel that way, but I saw a lot more variety than you... plus there are quite a few more educated posters here than just EJ.

-The complete ignoring of the fact that we did have an actual deflation, not disinflation. Even if it was only for a short time, you have to admit that EJ was wrong there.

Only if you believe that the CPI is a fair, unbiased and accurate way to judge deflation. I most specifically note how Mish always avoids any of the many points that John Williams and I and others make about how severely understated CPI is including Boskin, OER, hedonics, geometric weighting, health care weights and many more.
And then we have the plain and simple evidence of how for years retired folk have had their standard of living drop substantially since the CPI-W doesn't measure inflation correctly.

He does a "great" job hammering John Williams about hyperinflation, but never deals with the massive amount of CPI defects and is literally years behind he and I on how understated full unemployment is (my U7 reconstruction for example).

I also note that Mish was about 18 months late on recognizing that we were back in inflation. Link available if wanted. His strong vested interest and biases exist, almost incontrovertibly.

You can't have it both ways. You can't call EJ right and Mish wrong on deflation.

Certainly I can, as noted above about how Mish both has slammed CPI and then uses it to prove deflation. That's hypocrisy.

We also have his "interesting" rebuild of the CPI by replacing the housing section with Case Shiller. Not only (from what I can tell) does it completely ignore the 1/3 of folk who rent (which is extremely sloppy at best), but it also assumes that people move every year when its well over 5 years last I looked.

I can't recall mish claiming for prolonged deep deflation, but for the past few years he has been calling for periods of deflation with the US going "in and out of recession" for many years to come, similar to Japan.

You can find it a few years ago, when he thought it would be an L shaped deflation and recession, while loudly and highly emotionally hammering those who spoke about a W shaped one.

-EJ also makes the claim of using war for an excuse to inflate...

Can you name any significant war in history where inflation did not occur?

-Others make the claim about Mish wanting traffic. Excuse me, but anyone who makes their living off of the internet wants traffic. I could argue that EJ has MORE of an incentive for traffic, since he offers a subscription, where Mish does not.

We could discuss that one well beyond when the cows comes home since Mish is one of the few bloggers who consistently quotes his "competition" - and usually critically over the years.
Note here that I have been reading Mish myself virtually daily for years.

-Those of you claiming that Mish is just a shill for his fund, I never felt like that reading his blogs. Those of you saying how mish's fund is awful and loses money, sure in the past 2 years it's not done well. A large part of that fund is short stocks. You're not going to do well in a fund like that in a rising stock market. But in 2008, when the stock market went down a lot, that fund way outperformed. Overall the return since inception has been about the same as the greater stock market. Any investor is going to have ups and downs. My argument here is that I don't think it's fair to criticize Mish's calls based on the mutual fund he consults for, since the stated goal of the fund is to have a large short position in stocks.

First, there are at least three funds - not just one. Last I recall, none of them have precious metals.

Someone earlier quoted that his funds averaged 8% over the last three years, but provided no link or proof. I note that you didn't either.

-I'm generally very uneasy with many commenter responses that are not backed up by links to specific quotes, as well as others that basically call mish an idiot or a moron without refutation. Here are some examples:

I highly resent that kind of broad accusation, especially since you quoted one of my posts while completely ignoring all the other facts I posted.

Here's what you quoted from me:

Originally Posted by bart
He's spreading false or incomplete and/or spun etc. data to many folk (as many have noted in specifics on this thread), and in my opinion many of them will get hurt - some very substantially. And the way I've seen him spin EJ's and iTulip's thoughts and research etc. is well beyond the pale, to say the least... and adding nothing about my personal experiences with him either.

The specifics are in my posts and others on this thread - in other words I was being 100% factual. Your failure to do due diligence is noted.

I could find and link the ZH thread where Mish went off the deep end and very substantially mis-stated EJ's and iTulips positions too, since I actually posted on that thread. In other words, that's a simple fact.

As far as my opinion about folk getting hurt listening to him or acting on his points, well that's what I believe.

He did forecast high inflation though, and he was right for a short time in the early/mid 2000s. Mish for quite some time has been calling for low inflation/occasional deflation ala Japan for quite some time now.

Even using the lying CPI, inflation has been way higher than Japan.

A very simple comparison in total money supply (including credit & debt) shows truly gigantic differences between the US & Japan. Ever wonder why Mish doesn't show those comparisons?

*Frankly, I really don't understand why everyone is such a Mish hater. The article in which Mish mentions EJ even praises him for a gold call, while at least attempting to relatively disagree with him. Mish and EJ disagree - there is no shock in that. Regarding Mish misspelling EJ's name... he made a mistake. If you go look at the article, the name has been corrected. Every single person who has ever written anything has made some sort of grammatical or spelling error; we need not attribute it to malice. I go by a personal axiom of "Never attribute to malice what can be attributed to incompetence." I think incompetence is maybe too strong a word, but he misspelled a word there.

Ignoring the email vitriol and attacks etc. from Mish to EJ (which may have been removed from the thread by now) tells a much bigger story, as does his many highly emotional attack mode posts over the years, some of whom have targeted me. Mish has a serious problem with temper, civility, personal attacks etc... and trusting someone like that doesn't strike me as wise.

Note also that I don't "hate" Mish and also resent being lumped in that kind of generality.

Your statement that "everyone is such a Mish hater" (my emphasis) betrays a very incautious accusation, and makes me wonder about your motives a bit. Sweeping generalities leave a lot to be desired.

The bottom line in my opinion is that there is room in the financial advice-sphere for both Mish and EJ. The tone of this article and the responses I find has been very hostile, which I do not think is productive. Mish does use vitriol in some of his posts, which makes him appear blunt and opinionated - and it makes for interesting reading. Most of the time this is directed towards governmental figures who favor financial bailouts at the expense of the general populace. I would think that most of the itulip crowd would find it hard to argue with anger at those types of people. Maybe some of you guys should read more of Mish's current stuff and come to an opinion, as opposed to just blindly bashing him. No one ever said you have to agree with what someone writes. Most of his articles are fairly short and are eminently readable.

There is indeed room for both.

When someone is wrong, they deserve to be called out... and I see very little broad based hostility here. Your quotes didn't include real hostility, just strong disagreements or some making fun of him - and idiot is quite a mild word given massive errors like being 18 months late on realizing and admitting that inflation was back.

Need I remind you of how frequently Mish uses "Keynesian clowns" while 100% and completely ignoring how Keynes said you always save during good times? That's truly amateur and I could even make a case about him intentionally lying. I know for a fact that I've told him during a phone call about both sides of Keynes on spending & saving.

I'll re-ask a question I posed earlier from another who liked Mish more than the average here (and he never answered).
Do you really believe that if Keynes "save during good times" would have been followed that we'd be in the same position now? I'm no big fan of Keynes, but jeez - at least get the basics right about what he actually said.

Yes, that's yet another example of why most have such a low opinion of him - that's truly bad and 100% factually wrong economics, aka populist based macro economics. Keynes makes a good target during these times amongst the under or uneducated, and Mish is taking advantage of it via populist statements.

As far as anger and promoting or agreeing with it, I think its unwise to the max. Anger by itself is virtually always destructive, one minor example being have you ever been able to get a real or factual point across to any angry man?
Adding to anger in a "hot" emotional environment like we have today is like lighting and throwing an explosive and does not add to a better future in my opinion. Reasoned and factual discussion and attempting to educate without logical fallacies or untruths etc. - yes. Anger - no.

How about quoting some of the comments on Mish's blog about EJ or iTulip? I'd be willing to bet there a lot more actual and truly nasty or hostile comments, etc.

Lastly, although its dicey to compare this way, since Mish's original article and per Alexa - traffic to iTulip is up about 15% and Mish is down about 7%. That says something in my opinion - not condemnatory for sure, but a point that can't be ignored.

[c1ue]

Re: You're not going to believe this - Eric Janszen

-Robert Shiller recently responded to Jeremy Siegel (via a yahoo video) regarding the Shiller 10-year trailing P/E ratio, where Siegel criticized Shiller for including 2008. Shiller's response basically was "Why would I take out a down period? Economies have down period, so it would be dishonest to not include it." Removing what you feel is an "outlier" because it doesn't fit your theory is the height of statistical manipulation, in my opinion.

There is a huge difference between an ongoing index which uses a 10 year smoothing vs. a 4 year period in which the outlier is both against the overall thesis (a specific low inflation rate) and was unquestionably a historically unusual crisis based deflationary event.

Were I to choose a specific window, I could claim that deflation during the Great Depression wasn't so bad. This claim would be false and misleading, however.

The bottom line in my opinion is that there is room in the financial advice-sphere for both Mish and EJ. The tone of this article and the responses I find has been very hostile, which I do not think is productive. Mish does use vitriol in some of his posts, which makes him appear blunt and opinionated - and it makes for interesting reading. Most of the time this is directed towards governmental figures who favor financial bailouts at the expense of the general populace. I would think that most of the itulip crowd would find it hard to argue with anger at those types of people. Maybe some of you guys should read more of Mish's current stuff and come to an opinion, as opposed to just blindly bashing him. No one ever said you have to agree with what someone writes. Most of his articles are fairly short and are eminently readable.

You can't say people on iTulip are Mish haters when mostly he is ignored here.

The exception to this occurs when some person desires to re-open Mish's record vs. iTulip's.

Without these periodic stabs, there would not be discussion over him.

His record is poor and also unoriginal such that nothing can be learned from him that would not be better learned elsewhere - like at the source.