Re: You're not going to believe this - Eric Janszen
Originally Posted by DemonD
-Robert Shiller recently responded to Jeremy Siegel (via a yahoo video) regarding the Shiller 10-year trailing P/E ratio, where Siegel criticized Shiller for including 2008. Shiller's response basically was "Why would I take out a down period? Economies have down period, so it would be dishonest to not include it." Removing what you feel is an "outlier" because it doesn't fit your theory is the height of statistical manipulation, in my opinion.
There is a huge difference between an ongoing index which uses a 10 year smoothing vs. a 4 year period in which the outlier is both against the overall thesis (a specific low inflation rate) and was unquestionably a historically unusual crisis based deflationary event.
Were I to choose a specific window, I could claim that deflation during the Great Depression wasn't so bad. This claim would be false and misleading, however.
Originally Posted by Mish
The bottom line in my opinion is that there is room in the financial advice-sphere for both Mish and EJ. The tone of this article and the responses I find has been very hostile, which I do not think is productive. Mish does use vitriol in some of his posts, which makes him appear blunt and opinionated - and it makes for interesting reading. Most of the time this is directed towards governmental figures who favor financial bailouts at the expense of the general populace. I would think that most of the itulip crowd would find it hard to argue with anger at those types of people. Maybe some of you guys should read more of Mish's current stuff and come to an opinion, as opposed to just blindly bashing him. No one ever said you have to agree with what someone writes. Most of his articles are fairly short and are eminently readable.
You can't say people on iTulip are Mish haters when mostly he is ignored here.
The exception to this occurs when some person desires to re-open Mish's record vs. iTulip's.
Without these periodic stabs, there would not be discussion over him.
His record is poor and also unoriginal such that nothing can be learned from him that would not be better learned elsewhere - like at the source.
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