The Next Ten Years – Part I: There will be blood - Eric Janszen

[Woodsman]

Re: The Next Ten Years – Part I: There will be blood - Eric Janszen

Good find, Woodsman. Can you possibly give us the link to that post by EJ?

Right, totally forgot.

http://www.itulip.com/forums/showthr...793#post200793

[shiny!]

Re: The Next Ten Years – Part I: There will be blood - Eric Janszen

Right, totally forgot.

http://www.itulip.com/forums/showthr...793#post200793

Thanks, Woodsman. Funny how I have trouble wrapping my head around a lot of what EJ says but it becomes clear with hindsight:

Image driven electronic media is the most efficient machine of mass belief shaping in human history. It will be used by the state to erase old beliefs and create new ones in a matter of days if not hours.

With Facebook perfecting emotional manipulation of people on a mass scale, this statement turned out to be highly prescient indeed.

[Polish_Silver]

Stupid enough for the last half century

I have read several responses here along the lines of "China and the US won't engage in direct military confrontation because there is no way for either to prevail over the other." To my way of thinking, US and Chinese leadership have made in one miscalculation after another for decades and are painting themselves into a corner with only one way out.

. . . .



To sum up my argument: Leadership that is stupid and short sighted enough to let the tech bubble run to its disastrous conclusion, stupid and short sighted enough to let the housing bubble develop to bale the economy out of the tech bubble crash, and then let the housing bubble run to its disastrous conclusion, stupid and short sighted enough to try to restart the FIRE Economy and drive the economy toward a mid-gap recession, at which point a new round of layoffs pushes unemployment to 12% and higher and crushes consumer spending -- such leadership is stupid and short sighted enough to finish the course, to lead the US into wars it cannot win.

Well, they have been that stupid since at least 1960.

[jpetr48]

Re: The Next Ten Years – Part I: There will be blood - Eric Janszen

Frankly, I have no fingernails left after re-reading that analysis. I recall having a similar feeling of utter helplessness and worry for my children's future the first time I read it.

after reading this, i have to agree. It made me wonder how did those who lived during the 1930s make it thru in the US?
http://www.livinghistoryfarm.org/far...s/life_14.html

It appears that a simple life style replaced the more lavish and people formed community easier.
I am not sure how this would play out with our younger generation. iPhone, iPad everything is personally designed to you and me. No need to meet just text
when the next collapse does happen how will our children rally together or will they just tweet?

[Chris Coles]

Re: The Next Ten Years – Part I: There will be blood - Eric Janszen

after reading this, i have to agree. It made me wonder how did those who lived during the 1930s make it thru in the US?
http://www.livinghistoryfarm.org/far...s/life_14.html

It appears that a simple life style replaced the more lavish and people formed community easier.
I am not sure how this would play out with our younger generation. iPhone, iPad everything is personally designed to you and me. No need to meet just text
when the next collapse does happen how will our children rally together or will they just tweet?

It is then that us "Oldies", I am 70, will have a need to step forward to provide some leadership. We grew up without all these attachments, and thus know how to adapt without them. As I see it, we have to stay in the background and be open to direct interaction when TSHTF, as it will.

My advice to others at my age is to open conversations with the young at every opportunity. My own experience is that the young today have very little experience of such direct contact; yet welcome it as a new experience. Let them gain some confidence, so that, when they need to talk, they will already know that the contact is always welcomed with a smile.

On the other hand, if we push them away; they will surely place the blame upon our generation and that may lead to violence towards us; so we have every reason to keep the dialogue going at every opportunity.

[lakedaemonian]

Re: The Next Ten Years – Part I: There will be blood - Eric Janszen

It is then that us "Oldies", I am 70, will have a need to step forward to provide some leadership. We grew up without all these attachments, and thus know how to adapt without them. As I see it, we have to stay in the background and be open to direct interaction when TSHTF, as it will.

My advice to others at my age is to open conversations with the young at every opportunity. My own experience is that the young today have very little experience of such direct contact; yet welcome it as a new experience. Let them gain some confidence, so that, when they need to talk, they will already know that the contact is always welcomed with a smile.

On the other hand, if we push them away; they will surely place the blame upon our generation and that may lead to violence towards us; so we have every reason to keep the dialogue going at every opportunity.

This is may be a somewhat relevant analog.

In my research of the buildup of the Arab Spring, the thing that actually and tangibly tied the virtual to the literal were personal relationships between members of the virtual only online Arab Spring movement networks with the real world soccer/football/hooligan club/thug networks.

Each on their own would have been ineffective:

virtual world only networks would have produced impotent "bring back our girls" memes without any lasting effect

Real world only hooligan networks would have produced random uncoordinated chaos lacking credibility without any lasting effect

But together they made for a potent combination.

Maybe in the west it may be a pairing between internet savvy youth networks with mature physical space networks.

I could imagine tactics to divide generations over retirement welfare for the old, student debt for the young, opposite sides of the real estate value continuum, and a battle over ultimately limited healthcare resources may prevent it from gaining traction.

But I think it will take a partnership between virtual and real networks to leverage sufficient social/political power to effect substantive change.

[jpetr48]

Re: The Next Ten Years – Part I: There will be blood - Eric Janszen

It is then that us "Oldies", I am 70, will have a need to step forward to provide some leadership. We grew up without all these attachments, and thus know how to adapt without them. As I see it, we have to stay in the background and be open to direct interaction when TSHTF, as it will.

My advice to others at my age is to open conversations with the young at every opportunity. My own experience is that the young today have very little experience of such direct contact; yet welcome it as a new experience. Let them gain some confidence, so that, when they need to talk, they will already know that the contact is always welcomed with a smile.

On the other hand, if we push them away; they will surely place the blame upon our generation and that may lead to violence towards us; so we have every reason to keep the dialogue going at every opportunity.

well said Chris - we are not too far apart i am 58.
i just did what you said this weekend- in helping one of our universities raise money, before the event, i struck up a conversation with a student/worker. He was 27 and told me the story of after losing his mother and father he became angry at God and developed the prodigal son lifestyle. However at a latter age he has restored his self esteem and is now majoring in psychology so that he can help other at risk teenagers and young adults. He currently volunteers on a peer board with judges that review some of these dysfunctional cases so that compassion and restoration can occur. (BTW- the stats are that most of these at risk problems happen from broken households (70%) and we both agreed between ages 18-26.
The point is within this generation we will also see leaders and it is our job to encourage and listen to them also.
I am quite proud to play a small role in raising capacity for other fields so more students like this can be the light in a dark world.