For almost six years, Bubble Meter has been trying to warn people about the housing bubble. Unfortunately, we were wrong all along. There never was a housing bubble. I apologize for the error.
You might think I'm being sarcastic, but I'm not. You see, the belief in a housing bubble rests on housing prices substantially outpacing inflation. If housing prices don't outpace inflation, there can be no bubble. I foolishly assumed that I could trust the inflation numbers published by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Bubble Meter's readers have informed me that doing so is pure ignorance.
I admit was wrong. The army of economists crunching the inflation numbers at the BLS are just tools of a corrupt and wicked government. The true inflation numbers come from a guy with no graduate degree in economics who is chief economist at the Shadow Stats website. He sells the true numbers for $175 per year. You know he's not a snake oil salesman or a con artist because he tells you what you already believe. Con artists would never do that. This guy says the government is under-reporting the real inflation numbers. The real inflation numbers are much higher, and have been for decades.
If the true inflation numbers are much higher, then inflation-adjusted housing prices must therefore be much lower. It's a simple rule: higher inflation = lower inflation-adjusted housing prices = much smaller or non-existent housing bubble.
For example, in 2001 when I first spotted what I thought was a housing bubble (silly me), nominal home prices had increased about 8.5% from the year before. But, according to Shadow Stats, inflation was 9.1%. Real home prices actually fell 0.6% that year! What a fool I was for thinking housing prices were rising too fast. They were actually falling!
If the Shadow Stats inflation numbers are right, then home prices must now be deeply undervalued. I say buy, buy, buy!
Copyright iTulip, Inc. 1998 - 2016 - All Rights Reserved
Opinions expressed herein are those of the posters, not those of iTulip, Inc., its owners, or management. All material posted on this board becomes the intellectual property of the poster and iTulip, Inc., and may not be reposted in full on another website without the express written permission of iTulip, Inc. By exception, the original registered iTulip member who authored a post may repost his or her own material on other sites. Permission is hereby granted to repost brief excerpts of material from this forum on other websites provided that attribution and a link to the source is included with the reposted material.
Nothing on this website is intended or should be construed as investment advice. It is intended to be used for informational and entertainment purposes only. We reserve the right to make changes, including change in price, content, description, terms, etc. at any time without notice. By using this board you agree that you understand the risks of trading, and are solely responsible for your own investment and trading decisions. Read full legal disclaimer.
Journalists are not permitted to contact iTulip members through this forum's email and personal messaging services without written permission from iTulip, Inc. Requests for permission may be made via Contact Us.
Objectionable posts may be reported to the board administrators via Contact Us.