Silver:- Could this be right?

[Mega]

http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot...ver-short.html

[Spartacus]

Re: Silver:- Could this be right?

He's making guesses about guesses about other peoples' theories. Also guesses about government motives

and he's also making unsupportable predictions "... will be blamed on a rogue trader ..."
I suppose it could happen ... highly unlikely, considering[0] JPM just lobbied the CFTC to exclude JPM from position limits. A rogue trader can arrange to speak for JPM to the CFTC? REALLY?

I went back again and this time made it a little more through before having to stop. He's either conflating or confusing Butler's China theory with GATA's China theory. And since he specifically names Butler in the piece but does not mention GATA at all, someone who's unfamiliar with the theories making the rounds could think this is Butler's theory.

Another Glaring mistake I can see immediately

Fekete has maintained for a long, long time there's no naked Silver shorting. NONE. ZERO. ZIP.

He often insulted Butler about it - acusing Butler of being completely ignorant of the real Silver story.

if he's changed his tune I have not come across any retraction.

Skip the article.

[0] And this is me commenting on HIS theories ... the distinction being, I'm not theorizing on his theories - I'm using available facts. At least I have some sense of irony, and I'm much better looking ...

[Camtender]

Re: Silver:- Could this be right?

He's making guesses about guesses about other peoples' theories. Also guesses about government motives

and he's also making unsupportable predictions "... will be blamed on a rogue trader ..."
I suppose it could happen ... highly unlikely, considering[0] JPM just lobbied the CFTC to exclude JPM from position limits. A rogue trader can arrange to speak for JPM to the CFTC? REALLY?

I went back again and this time made it a little more through before having to stop. He's either conflating or confusing Butler's China theory with GATA's China theory. And since he specifically names Butler in the piece but does not mention GATA at all, someone who's unfamiliar with the theories making the rounds could think this is Butler's theory.

Another Glaring mistake I can see immediately

Fekete has maintained for a long, long time there's no naked Silver shorting. NONE. ZERO. ZIP.

He often insulted Butler about it - acusing Butler of being completely ignorant of the real Silver story.

if he's changed his tune I have not come across any retraction.

Skip the article.

[0] And this is me commenting on HIS theories ... the distinction being, I'm not theorizing on his theories - I'm using available facts. At least I have some sense of irony, and I'm much better looking ...

The only "Glaring" mistake is your writing, good god................

First, Jesse is simply writing that what he thought was "ludicrous" a few weeks ago is now a little clear since Harvey has chimed in.

In addition, he qualifies his blog post in the third sentence with "This is my interpretation of the China silver short theory as expressed by others".

Clearly, you read at the same level as you write.

Jesse's blog helped me get a better understanding, thanks Mike for sharing.

[Kadriana]

Re: Silver:- Could this be right?

Jesse's blog helped me get a better understanding, thanks Mike for sharing.

I must say that the blog did help explain the situation a lot better. I was so confused after reading a couple other places. Not sure if what people are saying is true or not but at least I have a better understanding of what they're talking about.

[Spartacus]

Re: Silver:- Could this be right?

"This is my interpretation of the China silver short theory as expressed by others".

right ... you think that's what Butler actually thinks? Can't be what GATA thinks because that article didn't mention GATA. How is that not a glaring error? And the Fekete thing ... completely false, totally mis-representing Fekete's position.

But I'm glad you got something out of it and don't see any glaring errors.

<snicker> Good for Jesse ... debunking a theory cobbled from several sources, attributed to the wrong sources, and tortured into a format which NO ONE actually believes. </snicker>

[rshimada]

Re: Silver:- Could this be right?

I think (the rabid goldbug) Fekete is confused. In http://www.professorfekete.com/artic...erShortage.pdf he writes:

I wish Ted Butler stopped bitching about silver manipulation, and telling fairy tales about raptors and dinosaurs, and instead explain the behavior of silver lease rates and the silver basis to his readers. In particular, explain negative lease rates and basis.
...
The collapse of the silver lease rate on September 20 [2007] to negative territory meant panic short covering in silver. The shorts anticipated an imminent and substantial rise in the price of silver and were running for cover.

Ted Butler believes that there has been manipulation in the price of silver since 1982, not necessarily that there is a shortage of silver.

Researching your post I came across an interesting undated page at http://whiskeyandgunpowder.com/free-...silver-report/ which includes

In 2001 China sold in excess of 50 million ounces of silver. The following year they sold another 35 million ounces on the open market. That puts an approximate two year total of bullion sales for China at 85 million ounces.
...
It became quite clear that China would not be able to keep this up. The Silver Institute reports, “Net sales (of silver) declined 30% year-on-year in 2004,” they go on to say, “The fall in government silver sales was almost exclusively driven by the amount of silver released from Chinese official stock…the country’s stockpiles have been markedly rundown.”

As a quick side note I feel it’s important to note that this decline in Chinese sales correlated exactly with the price of silver jumping to $8.29.

So China has already overtly kept silver prices down by selling it. Spending their depreciating US dollars to short silver on the COMEX is viable. It may even be possible that China is both shorting and going long on silver http://goldeneconomizer.blogspot.com...portunity.html (though I think China would maintain a net short position to keep the cost down). This article also points out

Silver began to be used as a currency in Guangdong, China in 1423 when it became legal tender for payment of taxes. Provincial taxes had to be remitted to the capital in silver after 1465. In 1914, the National Currency Ordinance established the Silver Dollar as the national currency of the Republic of China. In 1949 the incoming Communist regime took China off the silver standard...