what i'm really after is an answer to the question about fixing a mortgage.
fwiw, I refinanced with a fixed rate CASH OUT mortgage at 4.375% about 1-2 years ago.
Originally Posted by we_are_toast
FRED seems to believe the drop in the dollar and the increase in inflation will be considerably more gradual. Although he would define this as a currency "crises".
You seem to disagree with this. Do you disagree with both the speed and degree of the currency caused spike in inflation?
I'm concerned the global move to austerity could lead to a longer period of disinflation than we might expect. But according to EJ;
The fact that the U.S. owes its foreign debt in dollars only limits the extent and speed of an Argentina type economic crisis for the U.S. Counter intuitively, if monetary and fiscal policy today allowed the money supply to fall, and demand and economic output to decline further, and CPI inflation to fall below 2% or so, a debt and currency crisis for the U.S. is virtually assured.
Is our time to act getting short? Better hurry before Jay corners the market!
If the dollar’s purchasing power won’t collapse by 73% in a few months, but instead will be cut in half over a few years, you still want to act as quickly as possible when the process starts, and preferably before the process starts. Even if the dollar drop is as “mild” as predicted, it won’t be smooth and the initial phase, especially, is likely to be tumultous and chaotic. I think it will be a tough time to do anything because of the extreme emotions likely to be stirred up. every time i make an investment decision i feel slightly sick to my stomach.
As for getting short, I’m carrying about a 9% short position which I think of as a partial hedge against my 18% energy and 6% agriculture positions. I’ve had thoughts of increasing my shorts, but again the issue is right sizing positions with an eye toward managing risk and managing one’s own emotions.
Btw, I’m defining the dollar’s drop in terms of purchasing power, not the dollar index dxy, since I think other fiat currencies will suffer the same fate, albeit in varying degrees.
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