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Its 1890 in China - China set to replace US as world manufacturing leader...110 year streak to end

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  • Its 1890 in China - China set to replace US as world manufacturing leader...110 year streak to end

    http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/af2219cc-7...44feabdc0.html

    The US remained the world’s biggest manufacturing nation by output last year, but is poised to relinquish this slot in 2011 to China – thus ending a 110-year run as the number one country in factory production.

    The figures are revealed in a league table being published on Monday by IHS Global Insight, a US-based economics consultancy.

    Last year, the US created 19.9 per cent of world manufacturing output, compared with 18.6 per cent for China, with the US staying ahead despite a steep fall in factory production due to the global recession.

    That the US is still top comes as a surprise, since in 2008 – before the slump of the past two years took hold – IHS predicted it would lose pole position in 2009.

    However, a relatively resilient US performance kept China in second place, says IHS, which predicts that faster growth in China will deny the US the top spot next year.

    The US became the world’s biggest manufacturer in the late 1890s, edging the then-incumbent – Britain – into the number two position.
    Hal Sirkin, head of the global operations practice at Chicago-based Boston Consulting Group, said the US should not despair too much at the likelihood that it would lose the global crown in manufacturing to China.

    “If you have a country with four times the population of the US and a tenth of the wages, it is fairly obvious they will pull ahead at some time in productive capabilities,“ he said.

    Last year, according to IHS, goods output by the US totalled $1,717bn, ahead of China at $1,608bn.

    However in 2011, on the basis of IHS’s estimates, China’s factory output will come to $1,870bn, a fraction ahead of the projected US figure for the year.

    If China does become the world’s biggest manufacturer, it will be a return to the top slot for a nation which – according to economic historians – was the world’s leading country for goods production for more than 1,500 years up until the 1850s, when Britain took over for a brief spell, mainly due to the impetus of the industrial revolution.

    The IHS figures are worked out on the basis of current-year output numbers, translated into dollars, with no adjustments for inflation. If the figures are calculated in inflation-adjusted, constant price terms, then I HS believes that the US will keep its top role in manufacturing for a little longer.

    On an inflation-adjusted basis, which is based on a forecast that US inflation will be lower than that in China over the next few years, China is forecast to take over the number one position in manufacturing in 2013-14.

    According to the IHS numbers, world manufacturing output last year came to $8,638bn (€6,979bn, £5,825bn) or 16.7 per cent of global gross domestic product.
    I wonder if the quote is ironic given the UK/US situation in 1890:

    http://www.statistics.gov.uk/downloa...Population.pdf

    UK population in 1891: 27M
    US population in 1890: 62.9M

  • #2
    Re: Its 1890 in China - China set to replace US as world manufacturing leader...110 year streak to end

    If you observe the differences in state ideology. Capitalist democracy beats constitutional monarchy which is in turn beaten by capitalist autocracy.

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    • #3
      Re: Its 1890 in China - China set to replace US as world manufacturing leader...110 year streak to end

      Originally posted by touchring View Post
      If you observe the differences in state ideology. Capitalist democracy beats constitutional monarchy which is in turn beaten by capitalist autocracy.
      Democracy is always an unstable and disastrous system of governance. A century is a drop in the bucket in terms of world history and proves nothing, particularly since political philosophers have been belaboring this very question now for nearly 30 centuries.

      The only reason it works today is due to mass media propaganda which deludes the populace into believing the "government" operates with their consent. That can only work for so long. The deleterious effects of democracy will always cause insurmountable social dysfunction as is evident practically anywhere you go in America.

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      • #4
        Re: Its 1890 in China - China set to replace US as world manufacturing leader...110 year streak to end

        Originally posted by Serge_Tomiko View Post
        Democracy is always an unstable and disastrous system of governance. A century is a drop in the bucket in terms of world history and proves nothing, particularly since political philosophers have been belaboring this very question now for nearly 30 centuries.

        The only reason it works today is due to mass media propaganda which deludes the populace into believing the "government" operates with their consent. That can only work for so long. The deleterious effects of democracy will always cause insurmountable social dysfunction as is evident practically anywhere you go in America.

        Actually the problem is not so much as to whether the government is doing what the populace wants, but rather an autocracy can force through short to medium term sacrifices for longer term economic prosperity that a democracy can never do. For example, China can turbo charge its industrialization while a similarly large but democratic country such as India cannot. It can go into "unprofitable" green energy businesses in ways that a democratic capitalist country cannot.

        While Americans are amused by the fact that Chinese factory workers are working for cheap, what is forgotten is that Chinese enterprises are rapidly gaining management expertise, technology and market share especially in Africa and BRIC, at a pace that is unprecedented in recent history.

        Bubbles can burst, currency can become worthless but the human expertise and experience gained won't go away.
        Last edited by touchring; June 22, 2010, 03:23 AM.

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        • #5
          Re: Its 1890 in China - China set to replace US as world manufacturing leader...110 year streak to end

          With China about to become the world's leader in manufacturing, do not forget that the U.S. will remain the world's leader in law-suits and torts.

          The lesson of the oil spill is that BP should have been drilling for China, NOT AMERICA.

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          • #6
            Re: Its 1890 in China - China set to replace US as world manufacturing leader...110 year streak to end

            Originally posted by touchring View Post
            Bubbles can burst, currency can become worthless but the human expertise and experience gained won't go away.
            I disagree. Skills and expertise are perishable. Experience can be forgotten and denied. The prime example is the Apollo program which we can no longer perform, and some even claim never existed in a real sense! Among the prime reasons why Navy ships are built and where they are built is the aspect that yard workers need to maintain their expertise and the ability to "surge" production in some WW3 scenario.

            The overall point being that the expertise and knowledge China is gaining, we have been slowly losing or atrophying.
            Last edited by Ghent12; June 23, 2010, 10:44 AM.

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            • #7
              Re: Its 1890 in China - China set to replace US as world manufacturing leader...110 year streak to end

              How did you get into this position is not difficult to see. Stop, turn around and look back at the road you travelled since Nixon unleashed the 'Kraken' of Debt.
              This may scare you, certainly it is a sobering reminder that for every action you get a reaction. Governments and their advisors must be reminded that they don't own the future they lease it from their children.
              I urge all to read this road map of a great nation undone by the deadly sins on men in power without forethought.

              http://theburningplatform.com/blog/2...tured-article/

              If I could offer any words to prevent the Inevitable it would be - and I rarely swear -
              "Harden the F#@K up you Metro-sexual princesses" - Time to Man-up, get some blisters and draw some claret to restore your Family and National pride.

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              • #8
                Re: Its 1890 in China - China set to replace US as world manufacturing leader...110 year streak to end

                Originally posted by Starving Steve View Post
                With China about to become the world's leader in manufacturing, do not forget that the U.S. will remain the world's leader in law-suits and torts.

                The lesson of the oil spill is that BP should have been drilling for China, NOT AMERICA.

                Come the worst scenario, BP can dump its USA operations, layoff all the workers and shutdown all the oilfields in America.

                In less than 10 years, China will have as many cars as the USA and unless they all run on electricity, China will need a lot of oil by then.
                Last edited by touchring; June 23, 2010, 03:18 AM.

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                • #9
                  Re: Its 1890 in China - China set to replace US as world manufacturing leader...110 year streak to end

                  30-second video I took on the way to my marina in the Los Angeles Harbor:

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                  • #10
                    Re: Its 1890 in China - China set to replace US as world manufacturing leader...110 year streak to end

                    Originally posted by KGW
                    30-second video I took on the way to my marina in the Los Angeles Harbor:
                    It would be even better if it were possible to show another train going the other way laden with the American Dream.

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