Quote Originally Posted by FRED View Post
Eh...not so sure I'd include the First Bounce one. Other than the "bounce" statement, lots of it still has yet to come about.

"In a recession, a recovery in personal consumption, incomes, and retail sales signals the start of recovery. The virtuous cycle of credit growth--and its corollary, debt growth—combine with rising incomes as the rate of unemployment growth slows. Credit expansion leads the economy out of the cycle, followed by incomes. That is what many stock market participants think they are seeing now, as previous experience has trained them to see. But they are wrong. "

They sure have been right so far.

"This rally does not reflect an improvement in the underlying economy but the response of market participants to short term government policy in the context of a widespread misperception of the current depression as a recession. "

"Even after the DJIA approaches our target of 5000, we have no idea how long it will remain trading in a low range. The duration of the downturn depends on the political response to global economic contraction. The flawed philosophy and ideology of curing the debt deflation illness with further exposure to the debt disease, as the U.S. attempted in the 1930s and Japan has tried since the early 1990s, do not encourage optimism but point to a prolonged and painful period of global economic contraction."

iTulip has definitely been more right than wrong, but we blew in SPADES the rebound....(sigh). It's something I've noticed -- we often underestimate how bad (or good) things might get. Probably a consequence of the massive dysfunction in economic markets.