March 1 (Bloomberg) -- While the eyes of the world focus on Greece’s debt crisis, investors in Edinburgh are busy preparing for the U.K. to be next.
Turcan Connell, which caters to rich families, expects the pound to lose between 20 percent and 30 percent against the dollar once investors turn their sights on Britain as the government sells a record amount of debt. Concern that Greece won’t be able to cut its budget deficit helped send the euro 5 percent lower against the dollar this year.
“Alarm bells were ringing in Greece for a long time and when it happened, it happened very quickly,” Haig Bathgate, head of strategy at Turcan Connell, said at the company’s offices in the Scottish capital. “The U.K. is in a similar predicament. It could be hit very hard.”
Money managers in Edinburgh, where investment decisions have been made on behalf of insurers, pensioners and the wealthy for two centuries, are maneuvering to protect assets from the U.K. economy as it limps out of its worst recession on record.
Bruce Stout, whose Murray International Trust Plc in Edinburgh has doubled over the past five years, said the chance of a plummeting pound are “better than even” and his biggest holdings are in Asia and Latin America. He called sterling a “very vulnerable currency.”
“When there’s a fiscal crisis, the markets tend to punish that country very quickly,” said Bathgate, who is responsible for 560 million pounds. “I don’t think Britain is in nearly as bad a position as Greece. We’ve got a good taxation system, however the position of the economy is very dire.”
The U.K.’s budget deficit is roughly the same as Greece’s, both exceeding 12 percent of economic output. Moody’s Investors Service and Standard & Poor’s said last week they may cut Greece’s credit rating as the five-month-old government struggles to curb spending and control its debt.
Moody’s Investors Service said in December the U.K. may “test the Aaa boundaries.”
Brown must call an election by June and some polls signal that no party will emerge with a clear majority.
The pound weakened to an almost 10-month low against the dollar today, taking this year’s decline to 6.5 percent. A YouGov Plc poll published yesterday showed Brown’s Labour Party only two percentage points behind the opposition Conservatives, the narrowest margin for two years.
A so-called hung parliament or signs retail sales and economic growth aren’t recovering as expected might be the catalysts for the pound to accelerate declines, Bathgate said.
“There could be a number of triggers,” he said. “If there’s indecision about how you deal with a problem, that’s when things start to fall apart. We could be in the position where the spotlight turns to the U.K.”
The pound may fall below parity with the euro and drop to the lowest level against the dollar since the mid-1980s should the U.K. cut spending too quickly, Mansoor Mohi-Uddin, chief currency strategist at UBS AG, said in a Feb. 24 report.
Sterling slid to a nine-month nadir against the dollar last week, trading at $1.52. Zurich-based UBS, the world’s second- biggest currency trader, predicted it could fall “quickly back” to $1.05 or below.
The pound may come under further pressure with the Bank of England resuming its quantitative-easing program, a process of injecting new money into the economy, within the next three to four months, Bathgate said. Policy maker Adam Posen said Feb. 24 the central bank may expand the 200 billion-pound asset-purchase plan should the economic recovery prove weaker than expected.
“If it comes back then we’re likely to be the only people doing that in the world at that time,” said Bathgate. “My strong view is the government is trying to create inflation and devalue the currency.”
Bathgate said he sold conventional U.K. government-bond investments at the end of 2008 and only holds index-linked securities because of concern inflation may accelerate.
The yield on the benchmark 10-year gilt dropped 24 basis points to 4.03 percent last week. The yield on Greek 10-year bonds fell 6 points to 6.39 percent. German bunds, the region’s benchmark debt, declined 18 points to 3.10 percent.
To contact the reporter on this story: Rodney Jefferson in Edinburgh at email@example.com
Last Updated: March 1, 2010 03:42 EST