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Jobless claims fall under 500,000 - Recession over! (or not)

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  • Jobless claims fall under 500,000 - Recession over! (or not)

    The headlines are trumpeting that jobless claims fell under 500,000 for the first time in a long long time.

    That's great! Until you look at the actual release:

    http://www.dol.gov/opa/media/press/eta/ui/current.htm



    UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE DATA FOR REGULAR STATE PROGRAMS






    Advance











    Prior1


    WEEK ENDING


    Nov. 21


    Nov. 14


    Change


    Nov. 7


    Year






    Initial Claims (SA)


    466,000


    501,000


    -35,000


    505,000


    520,000


    Initial Claims (NSA)


    543,926


    475,846


    +68,080


    531,743


    609,138


    4-Wk Moving Average (SA)


    496,500


    513,000


    -16,500


    520,500


    512,500






    Advance











    Prior1


    WEEK ENDING


    Nov. 14


    Nov. 7


    Change


    Oct. 31


    Year


    The good news is it is slightly better than last year this time - though note that this is UI claims, not unemployment per se.

    The bad news is that a 4 week moving average of 496,500 vs. 512,500 of 1 year before, or 543746 vs. 475846 of a week before - none of these comparisons are quite as panglossian.

    Then we see further down:













    Prior1



    WEEK ENDING


    Nov. 7



    Oct. 31



    Change



    Year







    Federal Employees


    22,941


    24,903


    -1,962


    14,827


    Newly Discharged Veterans


    34,598


    34,899


    -301


    23,317


    Railroad Retirement Board


    10,000


    10,000


    0


    3,000


    Extended Benefits


    539,531


    574,155


    -34,624


    19,650


    EUC 20083


    3,639,036


    3,622,666


    +16,370


    766,565


    EUC numbers still going up. EUC numbers vs. 1 year ago: nearly 3M more though of course EUC benefits weren't as common then.

    Then again the Extended Unemployment Benefits bill was passed in June 2008:

    http://www.opencongress.org/bill/110-h5749/show
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