Peak Cheap Oil Update - Part I: The glass is half empty

[ThePythonicCow]

Re: Peak Cheap Oil Update - Part I: The glass is half empty

Well said, Roughneck.

[metalman]

Re: Peak Cheap Oil Update - Part I: The glass is half empty

As someone who has spent 30 years in the oil and gas industry I would agree that we have reached peak "cheap" oil. I think this country with our 4 year political cycle and lack of energy policy is setting the stage for future hardships for it's people. We need to address the issue of energy security. It IS the most pressing crisis we will face, not health care or even global warming. We do have lots of energy resources here. The eastern gulf of mexico likely holds as much gas and oil as the western gulf. We need to be making hard political choices now or when the crisis hits we will be behind the eight ball. I wonder what is more of a threat to the tourism industry on the eastern seaboard? 6 dollar a gallon gas or an oil rig 75 miles of the coast? We need to develop our fossil resources as a bridge to the future. Millions generated by leasing gulf waters and western shale deposists could be used to fund energy research. Instead we spend millions researching global warming. Which would have a greater impact on future green house gas emissions? We need a manhattan or apollo scale project for energy development. People also need to understand the scale and investment required to harness and use low density energy sources like wind and solar. It would take a wind farm the size of the state of california and several square meters of solar panels for every citizen to produce 1/3 of our energy needs from each respectively. The current cap and trade legislation will do nothing more than siphon capital needed for investment and put it in the hands of politicians who will miss allocate the capital on social programs and foreign wars. Not to mention the cut the traders will take off the top. With an economy based 70% on consumption where will the GDP come from when people are spending their entire paychecks on food,shelter and energy? When oil spiked to $140 people in the northeast were wondering how they would afford to heat their homes and put gas in the car. Replacing hydrocarbon liquids as a transportation fuel should be the first priority but also will be the toughest challenge. I do believe in the creativity and ingenuity of the american people. If government would provide some leadership and vision we could conquer this problem. But alas, we have had neither wisdom or leadership in washington for a very long time.

well put, rn. the next peak oil cycle kick the usa economy back to 1990s gdp. all the $$$ will go to eat and heat. i''l be trading this...



...for this...



pity the poor saps who listened to this guy...

[we_are_toast]

Re: Peak Cheap Oil Update - Part I: The glass is half empty

As someone who has spent 30 years in the oil and gas industry I would agree that we have reached peak "cheap" oil. I think this country with our 4 year political cycle and lack of energy policy is setting the stage for future hardships for it's people. We need to address the issue of energy security. It IS the most pressing crisis we will face, not health care or even global warming. We do have lots of energy resources here. The eastern gulf of mexico likely holds as much gas and oil as the western gulf. We need to be making hard political choices now or when the crisis hits we will be behind the eight ball. I wonder what is more of a threat to the tourism industry on the eastern seaboard? 6 dollar a gallon gas or an oil rig 75 miles of the coast? We need to develop our fossil resources as a bridge to the future. Millions generated by leasing gulf waters and western shale deposists could be used to fund energy research. Instead we spend millions researching global warming. Which would have a greater impact on future green house gas emissions? We need a manhattan or apollo scale project for energy development. People also need to understand the scale and investment required to harness and use low density energy sources like wind and solar. It would take a wind farm the size of the state of california and several square meters of solar panels for every citizen to produce 1/3 of our energy needs from each respectively. The current cap and trade legislation will do nothing more than siphon capital needed for investment and put it in the hands of politicians who will miss allocate the capital on social programs and foreign wars. Not to mention the cut the traders will take off the top. With an economy based 70% on consumption where will the GDP come from when people are spending their entire paychecks on food,shelter and energy? When oil spiked to $140 people in the northeast were wondering how they would afford to heat their homes and put gas in the car. Replacing hydrocarbon liquids as a transportation fuel should be the first priority but also will be the toughest challenge. I do believe in the creativity and ingenuity of the american people. If government would provide some leadership and vision we could conquer this problem. But alas, we have had neither wisdom or leadership in washington for a very long time.

Hmmmmm, you seem to be a bit vague about this energy development you mention. Could you be a bit more specific on what you would like to see being done?

[Mega]

Re: Peak Cheap Oil Update - Part I: The glass is half empty

What about Linsey Williams?
http://video.google.com/videoplay?do...74697167011147#
Laugh if you will but when oil hit +$140 & everyone said it would hit $200 (Because of Peek oil) Linsey came on Alex Jones & said his contact sez its going below $50!

I & other laughed................we know What happened next.

Mike

[metalman]

Re: Peak Cheap Oil Update - Part I: The glass is half empty

In a way, Prechter and Mish are correct that real wages and demand will continue to fall.

what? prechter and mish have turned into inflationists? when did that happen?

[metalman]

Re: Peak Cheap Oil Update - Part I: The glass is half empty

What about Linsey Williams?
http://video.google.com/videoplay?do...74697167011147#
Laugh if you will but when oil hit +$140 & everyone said it would hit $200 (Because of Peek oil) Linsey came on Alex Jones & said his contact sez its going below $50!

I & other laughed................we know What happened next.

Mike

right prediction, wrong reason.

[rogermexico]

Re: Peak Cheap Oil Update - Part I: The glass is half empty

This came up for debate on Country file, a BBC Farming program recently and has to be balanced against a very simple fact, a great deal of the land is only good for producing grass and then the only way to convert grass to food is through livestock farming.

Chris

You are correct. Petroleum based- annual grass agriculture with its rapid soil destruction is as unsustainable as our oil consumption. Animals eating perennials and returning nutrients to the soil is the only sustainable way to feed people.

I recommend "the vegetarian myth" by Leirre Keith ( a former vegan) to all who think it is green to eat plants instead of animals.

If humans don't reduce numbers, nature will do it for them.

[Roughneck]

Re: Peak Cheap Oil Update - Part I: The glass is half empty

Hmmmmm, you seem to be a bit vague about this energy development you mention. Could you be a bit more specific on what you would like to see being done?

The first prority would be a replacement for liquid hydrocarbon fuels for transportation. This would have to be done in stages. There is a fuel cell technology being developed that uses gasoline to seperate hydrogen. Fuel economy is increased roughly 80% and the emissions are much less. That along with electric hybrids and the use of natural gas in fleet vehicles would be a first step. This is where we really need an apollo scale project.

I believe we should deveop wind,solar AND nuclear energy along with clean burning coal for power generation.

I think we all need to be realistic. We will not wean ourselves off fossil fuels over night. It is going to take a lot of time and money. I'm not sure the suburbs will die but you are already seeing developments where retail shopping,entertainment etc are developed in walking distance in the community. Kind of like a "town" enviroment. That way people only really NEED to drive any distance to work. You could have an ulltra fuel efficient or electric vehicle for commuting or a cental hub for mass transit.If you could turn your roof into a giant solar cell we could greatly reduce energy needs. I don't claim to have all the answers but there are some really smart people in our scientific community. If we focus our "energy" on finding solutions I think it can be done.The key is we need to recognize the problem and start finding solutions.

[jandkmeyer]

Re: Peak Cheap Oil Update - Part I: The glass is half empty

How many of the animals eaten in the US are feeding on grass, do you think? I would guess they are the exception and the vast majority of animal's diet is grain, mostly corn, which is heavily reliant on petroleum. Post Peak Oil grass fed will be the only way and they will be fewer and more expensive. Get ready for a diet with less meat, which will probably cut the health care bill.

I saw a film on Cuba where they were cut off from their Russian oil supply and had to go organic to survive. They lost weight and got healthier.

[jk]

Re: Peak Cheap Oil Update - Part I: The glass is half empty

see also the gregor article i previously posted- excerpt:

When the post-peak phase gets underway the price amplitude increases even further, playing havoc with supply and demand. As demand gets killed, and then finally collapses, it causes confusion about supply. But then, as demand returns, any questions about supply are soon answered as demand once again bumps up against the supply ceiling.

(jk -the chart represents production hitting a diminishing supply ceiling, a recession dropping demand, then a recovery increasing demand til it hits the ever-lowering production ceiling again. price movements will become more extreme even as variation in production becomes less extreme.)


http://gregor.us/oil/overhead-crush/

[metalman]

Re: Peak Cheap Oil Update - Part I: The glass is half empty

see also the gregor article i previously posted- excerpt:

When the post-peak phase gets underway the price amplitude increases even further, playing havoc with supply and demand. As demand gets killed, and then finally collapses, it causes confusion about supply. But then, as demand returns, any questions about supply are soon answered as demand once again bumps up against the supply ceiling.

(jk -the chart represents production hitting a diminishing supply ceiling, a recession dropping demand, then a recovery increasing demand til it hits the ever-lowering production ceiling again. price movements will become more extreme even as variation in production becomes less extreme.)


http://gregor.us/oil/overhead-crush/

Economic M.A.D. Revisited: Turning point jun 2009

[jk]

Re: Peak Cheap Oil Update - Part I: The glass is half empty

Economic M.A.D. Revisited: Turning point jun 2009

yep. i think gregor's oil production/supply graph pretty much produces ej's price chart. same thing.

[Chris Coles]

Re: Peak Cheap Oil Update - Part I: The glass is half empty

Hmmmmm, you seem to be a bit vague about this energy development you mention. Could you be a bit more specific on what you would like to see being done?

Before Fred jumps in and shuts me down for Spamming, I want to suggest that, with energy now being recognised as the most important subject for debate, what I am about to say is particularly relevant.

You cannot research new thinking, without an acceptance that, if you preclude any area of thought from the outset, you remove new thinking before you start. And, in so doing, you will have restricted the potential for access to knowledge, you cannot know exists; without the research. A classic catch 22.

So first of all I have to admit to being in a quandary about this question of specifics with regard to energy research having written a new book about gravity and, as a part of that discussion, have proposed new thinking about how both photons and also electrons are generated. So I am going to tell you all a story. (Apologies, not a short one).

My book is sufficiently controversial that, while my Principal Investigator, (a Prof of both Electrical Engineering and Physics), has placed, (very bravely in my humble opinion), on record, a foreword for the book; he is having real difficulty adding another letter, (to support), my further interest in creating a completely new, totally independent, research institute for research into gravity and new forms of energy, which in turn, will look at all these ideas of mine here in the UK. (Where I am convinced it should be located).

Add to that, I am being shunned by every professional scientist, I believe because of fear that any support may result in the absolute destruction of their professional careers as scientists. My local UK government source of grant has made it absolutely clear that they think I am a raving lunatic, a classic crank. Friends have tried to find support, taking a copy of the book as a ink-jet printout to pass on, only to receive strange replies. Copies sent by me to the likes of the Royal Society in London have resulted in total silence, yet, when another friend, a member of the Institute of Physics tried to go in to talk to the RS, their reply was that they do not permit such contact, they will only do so by invitation. Without an invitation forthcoming.....

Without a doubt, one of the reasons for the fear is that, if I am right about my thinking, then everything they have been taught has to be thrown away. And that is a very difficult thing for a professional to have to contemplate at the height of their career. As a result, I have a book ready for print, with the research institute created as a ephemeral thought online with an outline of what we will do and how we will do it, even a perfect location, (IMHO) but at every turn, no matter how we try - no funding.

To give you an idea of how obtuse this is, take a look at the July 2004, (yes, this is a story covering many years), edition of Scientific American, pages 26 to 35, The Extraordinary Deaths of Ordinary Stars by Bruce Balick and Adam Frank. http://www.scientificamerican.com/ar...rdinary-deaths (I recommend the printed edition). In the first edition of my book about gravity I had used, as an illustration of what I am describing, part of which is the underlying mechanism for the formation of Planetary nebula, a copy of a photograph, taken by Bruce Balick, of a planetary nebula. So what? That Scientific American article tells us that, in general, they do not know the underlying mechanisms for the formation of what are called Planetary Nebula. So, take a look at the last paragraph on page 35, it reads:

We are hardly the only astrophysicists to be awed, puzzled and challenged by enigmatic images from Hubble and other instruments over the past decade. Nearly every field of astronomical research has a similar tale to tell. New information ultimately upends the best of theories in every field of research. That is the nature of progress. Discovery is often disruptive, it clears out old niches and prepares the way for big (and often disorienting) leaps forward. Scientific theories are built to be used, but they must be mistrusted, tested and improved. (my emphasis).

Remember that to use the original image I had asked permission and had passed on a copy of the first edition when it became available. So when the article came out I emailed Bruce Balick, (prof at Washington State), to ask to meet and talk, his answer was: "Too busy, no time, good luck". Also, remember, Scientific American also had to know why they had written that final paragraph.

A second edition produced as an E-book, (drafts of which had been passed around to many more scientists), including the team working with the Hubble Space telescope, has, (as every edition since), a very detailed description of how the Whirlpool Galaxy has evolved and that I was contemplating a poster to illustrate the mechanism. You might like to go and find that when the Hubble team decided to celebrate their 15th anniversary, they produced two images, one of the Whirlpool galaxy and the other of a dust cloud, The Eagle Nebula; exactly what I need to be able to create that poster. But no mention of me or my book. http://hubblesite.org/newscenter/arc...leases/2005/12

Very thought provoking.

By this last April, I had finished another new edition of the book, (I keep adding to it), and decided to change direction by starting a viral marketing campaign, not about that subject, but another, (that EJ is very familiar with), my thoughts on the subject of how to break that log jam of the funding for new ideas and, thus, new job creation. Part of that thinking had been placed as a new thread on iTulip. http://www.itulip.com/forums/showthread.php?t=7480

To start my new ball rolling, I took everything I had ever written about the difficulties of funding new thought and thus new jobs, from my experience as an inventor, and created a new, free to download PDF book titled: The Road Ahead from a Grass Roots Perspective. www.chriscoles.com.page3.html and sent a copy to The Times, London, (Our UK Paper of Record). Since then, ~ early September, they have permitted some 60 of my comments, (please note that they can be VERY restrictive as to the number they permit), a good example being: http://business.timesonline.co.uk/to...cle6859447.ece
or again, http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/com...cle6889765.ece

The crux of what I see as the problem with research into energy is the very simple fact that we do not have any usable funding mechanism for such research. What we have today is either government grant, or VC funding. The first will only look at the ideas coming from established players such as universities or large companies, the latter is so blinkered by feudal attitudes towards their marketplace and a wish to make huge fortunes in months, that they are absolutely unusable. I will not go there. Period.

Energy, magnetic energy, electromagnetic energy, is going to answer all of your long term problems. The real problem is funding, or to be precise, the lack of it. THAT is your problem.

[LargoWinch]

Re: Peak Cheap Oil Update - Part I: The glass is half empty

First of all: wow!

Energy, magnetic energy, electromagnetic energy, is going to answer all of your long term problems.

Chris, that is quite a bold statement and one which I sincerely hope it is true.

If I may ask the obvious million dollars questions: just how much funding would be required and how long is "long term"?

[Chris Coles]

Re: Peak Cheap Oil Update - Part I: The glass is half empty

First of all: wow!




Chris, that is quite a bold statement and one which I sincerely hope it is true.

If I may ask the obvious million dollars questions: just how much funding would be required and how long is "long term"?

Largo, let us take this from an assumption that one needs to be able to pay a top flight Prof full tenure just to lead what will become a major research centre funded by (hopefully) public donation, then I would not expect to be able to even start the ball rolling without something in the region of $30 million day one, (£UK20 million). The property I have in mind for its location was on sale here in the UK a while ago for £12 million.

Long term, most of the funding will come from profits from the spin off from the sales of the book; the associated educational materials. If my theories turn out to be correct, then, (as outlandish as this sounds), I own what will turn out to be a good part of the subjects of Physics and Astronomy. So we will be supplying all the basic experiments and associated materials to every school, college and university on the planet.

I must add that this is for a very wide range of subjects. I seem to have been able to describe everything from a new model for the structure of the proton, right through to a complete description of every object in the universe. Everything goes out the window. Ideal Gas Law, Quantum dynamics, Uncertainty, all go. Take as a simple example, the inner structure of the sun will now be quite different. So using that as a simple example, imagine how many schools will need to throw away everything they have related to the sun?

Most of what I want to do at the start is related to computational visualisations. Those in turn form the backbone for the educational materials.

The book is much simpler as a book launch is much less costly. Yes, I am planning to add to it between now and Christmas, but as I do everything including typesetting and cover design, that all gets done at one and the same time. I have recently been talking locally about, (as I am stuck unable to move forward), that perhaps I should set up a simple experiment to show the potential for the control of gravity. But that has in turn resulted in someone trying to get into the house through the front window and my own thought process has shown me that I am taking a big risk in trying to do that while unfunded. What I may do now is less than I intended earlier this autumn.

I am sure that some who have recently been given a ink jet printout of the most recent edition have instead of offering to help, may well have already set off to try and answer that question without me. Theft of IP is very prevalent in todays society. But what can I do?

I am trying to gain access to some value I have with telecom patents I own, but that is stalled - very frustrating.