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Thread: Bob Prechter "Quite Sure" Next Wave Down Will Be Bigger and March Lows Will Break

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    Default Bob Prechter "Quite Sure" Next Wave Down Will Be Bigger and March Lows Will Break

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    http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker...ows-Will-Break

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    Default Re: Bob Prechter "Quite Sure" Next Wave Down Will Be Bigger and March Lows Will Break

    Quote Originally Posted by D-Mack View Post
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    http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker...ows-Will-Break

    Please note the Wikipedia criticisms of Prechter.
    The Wall Street Journal ran a page one article in August 1993 with the headline, "Robert Prechter sees his 3600 on the Dow--But 6 years late," in reference to Prechter's 1987 forecast for the Dow Jones Industrial Average. Technical analyst David Aronson wrote:
    The Elliott Wave Principle, as popularly practiced, is not a legitimate theory, but a story, and a compelling one that is eloquently told by Robert Prechter. The account is especially persuasive because EWP has the seemingly remarkable ability to fit any segment of market history down to its most minute fluctuations. I contend this is made possible by the method's loosely defined rules and the ability to postulate a large number of nested waves of varying magnitude. This gives the Elliott analyst the same freedom and flexibility that allowed pre-Copernican astronomers to explain all observed planet movements even though their underlying theory of an Earth-centered universe was wrong.
    His long-term track record from his newsletter calls has been poor. Using data from newsletter tracker Mark Hulbert, syndicated columnist Eric Tyson showed that Prechter has underperformed the broad market averages by 25 percent per year since 1985.

    Recently, Prechter has missed the latest portions of the rally in gold and oil. In July 2006 he asserted that gold had reached its peak and that oil, then around $70 bbl, also had peaked in price. His analysis was clearly flawed, as oil in late May 2008 reached $135 bbl and gold was at $925/ounce, although he did not remain short for the whole rally.

    Ed.

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    Default Re: Bob Prechter "Quite Sure" Next Wave Down Will Be Bigger and March Lows Will Break

    is the itulip position still DOW Jones 5000 ?

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    Default Re: Bob Prechter "Quite Sure" Next Wave Down Will Be Bigger and March Lows Will Break

    prechter is a great fade.

    rally on

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    Default Re: Bob Prechter "Quite Sure" Next Wave Down Will Be Bigger and March Lows Will Break

    Quote Originally Posted by phirang View Post
    prechter is a great fade.
    I doubt that one can get rich either way, following Prechter or fading him.

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    Default Re: Bob Prechter "Quite Sure" Next Wave Down Will Be Bigger and March Lows Will Break

    Quote Originally Posted by ThePythonicCow View Post
    I doubt that one can get rich either way, following Prechter or fading him.

    i gotta great deal on an elliiot wave for ya...

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    Default Re: Bob Prechter "Quite Sure" Next Wave Down Will Be Bigger and March Lows Will Break


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    Default Re: Bob Prechter "Quite Sure" Next Wave Down Will Be Bigger and March Lows Will Break

    Quote Originally Posted by D-Mack View Post
    mish follows any crackpot who believes in deflation spirals... who doesn't know history... the reasons for inflation and deflation... and doesn't know how to read... The truth about deflation

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    Default Re: Bob Prechter "Quite Sure" Next Wave Down Will Be Bigger and March Lows Will Break

    Quote Originally Posted by D-Mack View Post
    is the itulip position still DOW Jones 5000 ?
    The official iTulip position for CNBC viewers is DOW 5000.

    The official iTulip position for iTulipers, who know and understand the Real DOW, is DOW 40.


    Ed.

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    Default Re: Bob Prechter "Quite Sure" Next Wave Down Will Be Bigger and March Lows Will Break

    Somebody is bullish on the US Dollar...:eek:

    Oil May Fall Below $10 in Next Decade, Prechter Says

    Aug. 13 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil may plunge to less than $10 a barrel in the next decade after surging to a record $147 last year, said Robert Prechter, who achieved fame for cautioning on Oct. 5, 1987, that stocks would crash.

    “I expect crude oil prices to fall below $10 a barrel sometime over the next decade,” Prechter, founder of Elliott Wave International Inc., said in an e-mail yesterday. “It took many years for it to achieve $147.50, and it will take a long while for the full retreat to occur.”

    Oil should fall to between $4 and $10 a barrel based on a technical analysis called Elliott Wave principle, Prechter said in the Elliott Wave Theorist report...

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    Default Re: Bob Prechter "Quite Sure" Next Wave Down Will Be Bigger and March Lows Will Break

    Quote Originally Posted by GRG55 View Post
    Somebody is bullish on the US Dollar...:eek:
    Oil May Fall Below $10 in Next Decade, Prechter Says

    Aug. 13 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil may plunge to less than $10 a barrel in the next decade after surging to a record $147 last year, said Robert Prechter, who achieved fame for cautioning on Oct. 5, 1987, that stocks would crash.

    “I expect crude oil prices to fall below $10 a barrel sometime over the next decade,” Prechter, founder of Elliott Wave International Inc., said in an e-mail yesterday. “It took many years for it to achieve $147.50, and it will take a long while for the full retreat to occur.”

    Oil should fall to between $4 and $10 a barrel based on a technical analysis called Elliott Wave principle, Prechter said in the Elliott Wave Theorist report...
    The Economist predicts low oil prices for foreseeable future

    DROWNING IN OIL
    March 1999

    "WHAT", sneered Abdurrahman Salim Atiqi, Kuwait's one-time oil minister, "is the point of producing more oil and selling it for an unguaranteed paper currency?" In 1973, when most people feared that nothing could stop greedy OPEC members from raising oil prices as much as they chose-though not this newspaper, which forecast an oil glut-the producers affected to accept western cash for their black bullion out of charity. Now the long oil-price odyssey seems at an end. Since its peak in 1980, the price has fallen erratically. It has plunged by half in the past two years alone. In real terms, oil now costs roughly what it did before 1973. Crude is gushing from the ground at the rate of 66m barrels a day, half as copiously again as in OPEC's prime. The world is awash with the stuff, and it is likely to remain so.

    But low prices will gradually put most such areas out of business-especially if cash-strapped Gulf states conclude that the best way to increase revenues is to boost production, which could drive prices from today's $10 to as little as $5 (see article).


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    Default Re: Bob Prechter "Quite Sure" Next Wave Down Will Be Bigger and March Lows Will Break

    Quote Originally Posted by FRED View Post
    (Quoting from Wikipedia)

    The Wall Street Journal ran a page one article in August 1993 with the headline, "Robert Prechter sees his 3600 on the Dow--But 6 years late," in reference to Prechter's 1987 forecast for the Dow Jones Industrial Average. Technical analyst David Aronson wrote:
    The Elliott Wave Principle, as popularly practiced, is not a legitimate theory, but a story, and a compelling one that is eloquently told by Robert Prechter. The account is especially persuasive because EWP has the seemingly remarkable ability to fit any segment of market history down to its most minute fluctuations. I contend this is made possible by the method's loosely defined rules and the ability to postulate a large number of nested waves of varying magnitude. This gives the Elliott analyst the same freedom and flexibility that allowed pre-Copernican astronomers to explain all observed planet movements even though their underlying theory of an Earth-centered universe was wrong.

    His long-term track record from his newsletter calls has been poor. Using data from newsletter tracker Mark Hulbert, syndicated columnist Eric Tyson showed that Prechter has underperformed the broad market averages by 25 percent per year since 1985.

    Recently, Prechter has missed the latest portions of the rally in gold and oil. In July 2006 he asserted that gold had reached its peak and that oil, then around $70 bbl, also had peaked in price. His analysis was clearly flawed, as oil in late May 2008 reached $135 bbl and gold was at $925/ounce, although he did not remain short for the whole rally.
    Prechter has certainly had some disasterous calls, not least of which was an entire book published in 1995 (At The Crest Of The Tidal Wave) laying out a remarkably thorough case for a bear market in stocks to fall somewhere between 90% and 99% starting promptly. The next five years were some of the best stocks had ever seen.

    But to cite only the failures and selectively omit the successes is no more honest on the part of the accusers than they charge to the accused. The next market book Prechter put out, Conquer The Crash was published in early 2002, called the immediately following bear action to a T. His forecast charts from the beginning of the year look strikingly like the ones of the same year, but recording it as history. Moreover, even though the forecast from At The Crest didn't work out, it is nevertheless an brilliant work on financial market history and workings that most investors would benefit from to read.

    What's more, the Wiki author's debunking of the Elliott Wave missed the target by virtue of being too narrow. Most of what was said about Elliott could equally have been said about most technical analysis. Whatever else Elliott is or is not, it is at least as good as the rest of the field of chart based market timing. Moreover, a similar method of describing market trajectories advanced by fractal inventor Benoit Mandelbrot was the subject of a positive article in Scientific American several years ago. Fractal market analysis, of which Elliott is a type, has even been credibly studied by academics. In sum, an even-handed critique of Prechter cannot be uniformly negative.
    Finster
    ...

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    Default Re: Bob Prechter "Quite Sure" Next Wave Down Will Be Bigger and March Lows Will Break

    EW I like as a theory, and even find usefull on occasion, and some of Prechter's own ideas are also interesting, but following his trading advice?

    http://www.erictyson.com/articles/20090616

    Newsletter tracker Mark Hulbert has been documenting Prechter's investment trading predictions and picks since 1985 so he now has a nearly 25 year long track record which can tell us whether you should trade on his predictions or not.

    Here's how Prechter's trading advice has done from 1/1/85 through 5/31/09 versus the broad U.S. stock market average (Wilshire 5000 index) according to Hulbert's analysis:

    Annualized Return:


    • Wilshire 5000 Index + 9.7 percent
    • Prechter's Trading Advice -15.4 percent

    Total Return:


    • Wilshire 5000 Index + 857.1 percent
    • Prechter's Trading Advice - 98.3 percent

    The underperformance of Prechter's newsletter is nothing short of astonishing and stunning! On an annualized basis, Prechter has underperformed the broad U.S. stock market Wilshire 5000 index by a whopping 25 percent per year! Here's what Hulbert's analysis shows would have happened to $100,000 invested according to Prechter's investing trading advice versus the Wilshire 5000 U.S. stock market index:

    $100,000 Invested (1/1/85-5/31/09):


    • Wilshire 5000 Index $957,100
    • Prechter's Trading Advice $1,700
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