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Thread: The New Banana Republic

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  1. #1
    Join Date
    Apr 2009
    Posts
    480

    Default The New Banana Republic

    120 days is a quarter. Quarters are often used to dissect past information to predict future outcomes.
    We had a meeting to day to discuss the next half years outlook and one of the presentations was the USD outlook and future trends September2009 to March 2010
    while I cannot post the original material I took some notes and have transferred the relevant data from whence it came . (data is correct up till 3rd August 2009 and back 120 days) The frightening thing is there were very few of the 30 shown where the USD had risen off the boxing mat (retraced some ground)

    USD /EUR
    latest (Aug 3)0.699154 lowest (Aug 3)0.699154 highest (Mar 4)0.796495
    % Fall USD/EUR/120 days cycle 12%

    USD/AUD
    latest (Aug 3)1.18996 lowest (Aug 3)1.18996 highest (Mar 9)1.58241
    % Fall USD/AUD/120day cycle 24.8%

    USD/NZD
    latest (Aug 3)1.49934 lowest (Aug 3)1.49934 highest (Mar 2)2.02533
    % Fall USD/NZD/120 days 25.9%

    USD/BRL
    latest (Aug 3)1.8515 lowest (Aug 3)1.8515 highest (Mar 3)2.41522
    % Fall USD/BRL/120 days 23%

    USD/GBP
    latest (Aug 3)0.593722 lowest (Aug 3)0.593722 highest (Mar 12)0.728212
    % Fall USD/GBP 18.4%

    USD/CAD
    latest (Aug 3)1.06789 lowest (Aug 3)1.06789 highest (Mar 9)1.30561
    % FallUSD/CAD/120 days 18.2%

    USD/DKK
    latest (Aug 3)5.20513 lowest (Aug 3)5.20513 highest (Mar 4)5.93437
    % Fall USD/DKK/120 days 11.5%

    as well as
    Indo Rupiah -19.4%
    Polish Zloty -25%
    Norway Krone -15.3%
    Mex Peso-14.7%
    Ruski Ruble -14.3%

    THE GOOD NEWS - USD is Holding on by a fingernail to a few currencies that ARE Banana republics. Banana fruit therefore will not rise to much

    CONCLUSION - POOM - You have let the Inflation Genie out of the lamp. Deflation in the USA is dead now and you may
    welcome to at least 18% inflation looking forward as well as infecting the rest of the world with commodity shock.
    Oil and commodities in the USD exchange are going to go ballistic.
    Thank you for painting us into a corner Paulson/Bernankie and destroying what hope we had left of a recovery- Why - well you cant fight the Inflation Gene without a sword (interest rates) Try lifting them and its a POOM KA POOM. If the US/ World economy were a Chess game Id say checkmate in 3 moves. You have no Pawns or rear guard pieces left. It was inevitable in the end, the lie is going to kick us all in the wallet
    I Vote Eric Janson as El President'e Supremo
    (The graphs for the famed second derivative look like a triple black Diamond run in Aspen/Snowmass looking forward:eek
    Last edited by thunderdownunder; 08-04-09 at 03:15 AM.

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