Denninger saying that the 5 year Treasury auction on 7/29 was a virtual fail:
http://market-ticker.denninger.net/a...ely-FAILS.html
The 7 year auction on 7/30 was much better, but again the foreign and indirect bidder portion was very high.1.923 BTC X 61.59% Primary Dealer bid = 1.18 BTC (PD), greater than 1.0. Or to put it a different way, but for the primary dealers the bid-to-cover was less than one, meaning that some of the issue would have been left on the table.
Thats a fail; but for the primary dealers the issue would not have subscribed.
Primary dealers are required to bid. That's the deal in exchange for their being named as "primary dealers." For this reason short of thermonuclear war you will never see an actual (BTC < 1.0) "fail" on a US Treasury Auction - Treasury has rigged the process so as to insure that cannot be reported.
Furthermore while this 7 year security is quite new, the actual interest rate in the first issue: 3/2/2009 is more than 0.5% lower than this latest one
CUSIP=912828KS8
- Interest Rate:
- 2.625%
- Security Term:
- 7-YEAR, 0-MONTH
Security Type NOTE First Interest Payment Date 08-31-2009 Series G-2016 Standard Interest Payment 13.125000 Yield % Price High 2.748 99.221940 Avg/Median 2.670 0.000000 Low 2.500 0.000000
Allocation at the High 67.47% Offering Amt 22.0 billion Announce Date 02-19-2009 Auction Date 02-26-2009 Issue Date 03-02-2009 Maturity Date 02-29-2016 Original Issue Date n/a Auction Format SINGLE PRICE Total Tendered $47,492,300,600 Total Accepted $23,178,494,600
CUSIP=912828LD0
- Interest Rate:
- 3.25%
- Security Term:
- 7-YEAR, 0-MONTH
Security Type NOTE First Interest Payment Date 01-31-2010 Series M-2016 Standard Interest Payment 16.250000 Yield % Price High 3.369 99.263422 Avg/Median 3.287 0.000000 Low 3.210 0.000000
Allocation at the High 91.73% Offering Amt 28.0 billion Announce Date 07-23-2009 Auction Date 07-30-2009 Issue Date 07-31-2009 Maturity Date 07-31-2016 Original Issue Date n/a Auction Format SINGLE PRICE Total Tendered $74,287,499,400 Total Accepted $28,701,406,900


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