Tony Crescenski - Bond Market Analysis

[sishya]

This Guy looks very confident with is line of thinking. He says Inflation or deflation can happen depends on crossing a self-reinforcing threshold.

He also talks about the small bounce in Manufacturing Indices all over the world ie slowing of second derivative of the economy.
Calling on Symbols aka $#* - "Report to Base soon, Do you copy", we need him to give his input.

http://zerohedge.blogspot.com/2009/0...ort-beach.html

Tony Crescenzi Discusses Newport Beach Puppet Strings

Posted by Tyler Durden at 5:40 PM
Some perspectives on why everyone should take out their credit cards (preferably one issued by General Electric), dial 1-900-PIMCO and buy as many treasuries as their credit rating will allow them. Also, fast forward to 4:20 for some candid observations on puppeteering regarding PIMCO's most recent personnel addition. Odd that CNBC should be asking such questions.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=1174095628&play=1

[metalman]

Re: Tony Crescenski - Bond Market Analysis

i'm not listening to pimpco anymore.

[sishya]

Re: Tony Crescenski - Bond Market Analysis

i'm not listening to pimpco anymore.

Did you listen to the Video where the Interviewer asks him how come his views are different from PIMCO, and he says his views are not controlled by Bill Gross. And that there are no Puppet Strings.

I did not listen to Bill Gross a month ago when he said he thinks UST is going down and I bought TLT calls. We all know that People talk their books, but this Guy Tony sounds Genuine at least - maybe it is because his analysis is similar to what I have in Mind. May be.

[flow5]

Re: Tony Crescenski - Bond Market Analysis

The FED has tightened up a bit. Bonds should top in Oct. It's just a seasonal rally (price of bonds rise & lower yields), followed by a seasonal (Thanksgiving & Christmas & New Years), decline (price of bonds fall & higher yields).

But at some point real interest rates will begin to rise as a result of the massive deficit financing by the US Gov't. I.e., it is wrong to analyze the Federal Deficit from the standpoint of a certain percentage of GDP. To measure the current deficit and future deficits one has to forecast the volume of savings offered in the market place. It is the volume of current savings as a percent of the Federal Deficit that gives you the correct perspective:cool:

[sishya]

Re: Tony Crescenski - Bond Market Analysis

The FED has tightened up a bit. Bonds should top in Oct. It's just a seasonal rally (price of bonds rise & lower yields), followed by a seasonal (Thanksgiving & Christmas & New Years), decline (price of bonds fall & higher yields).

But at some point real interest rates will begin to rise as a result of the massive deficit financing by the US Gov't. I.e., it is wrong to analyze the Federal Deficit from the standpoint of a certain percentage of GDP. To measure the current deficit and future deficits one has to forecast the volume of savings offered in the market place. It is the volume of current savings as a percent of the Federal Deficit that gives you the correct perspective:cool:

Can you elaborate on this - "current savings as a percent of the Federal Deficit" ?