Results 1 to 6 of 6

Thread: February 2007 Foreclosure Data Alert

Threaded View

  1. #1
    Join Date
    Jun 2006
    Location
    US, Europe and Asia
    Posts
    4,578

    Default February 2007 Foreclosure Data Alert

    Editor's Note: The following is a report by iTulip contributor Sean O'Toole of proprietary timely and accurate foreclosure data only available in graphical form on iTulip.com. Sean's company will launch the data service shortly, available to investors, hedge funds, and government agencies on a subscription basis.

    February 2007 Foreclosure Data Alert - March 5, 2007Number of foreclosed homes returned to lenders at auction continue to rise

    by Sean O'Toole


    Our previous report on January 12, 2007 showed that for Q3’06, California foreclosures were up 111.8% from Q3’05 and 28.3% from the prior quarter. Despite this strong upward trend, most articles invariably followed up this data with a statement such as: Foreclosures are still at historically low levels, and the effect on today’s market is negligible.

    The source of these articles is DataQuick. When DataQuick says "historically low levels," they also disclose that they’ve only been tracking foreclosures since 1992, a key fact that many folks who use DataQuick's data don't know is very important. The reason that the start date of comparable foreclosure data for the last cycle is so important is that about two years after the last housing cycle bottom, foreclosures were already declining. If housing were indeed in the process of "bottoming out" now, as many forecast, then foreclosures should be starting to decline. Instead, as we reported last month, they continue to rise rapidly. Note the DataQuick data also show that foreclosures peaked in Q1’96, which correlates reasonable well with the bottom for the housing market. If that pattern of foreclosures repeats, then a bottoming of this housing cycle may not occur before 2010.

    February's data support our theory that DataQuick’s data spans a period of time that began during a period of increased foreclosure levels in the last cycle. As a result, we don’t have a clear picture of comparable foreclosure rates for the housing cycle period we are in currently compared to the last cycle, so no one can say whether current levels are "historically low" or not. Even if they are, that may well be a sign of a market peak rather than a bottom, implying further market volatility rather than market stability as usually inferred from the data.

    Here is some new data for California that you won't see soon anywhere but here on iTulip.


    Enlarge (Number of Properties)

    The number of foreclosures that lenders are taking back in California has increased from an average of 32 a day in August 2006, to 205 a day in February 2007. In dollars that’s an increase from an average of $13.3M per day to $83M per day in seven months.


    Enlarge (Value of Loans)


    A total of $1.5 billion of loan value was returned lenders in February versus $425 million in Sept. 2006.

    These data do not support the idea that the market has "bottomed out." Rather, the market is in the early stages of decline.

    You heard it here first.

    __________________________________________________

    Special iTulip discounted subscription and pay services flogged here:
    For a book that explains iTulip concepts in simple terms, see americasbubbleeconomy
    For a macro-economic and geopolitical View from Europe see Europe LEAP/2020

    For macro-economic and geopolitical currency ETF advisory services see Crooks on Currencies
    For the safest, lowest cost way to buy and trade gold, see The Bullionvault
    To receive the iTulip Newsletter or iTulip Alerts, Join our FREE Email Mailing List

    Copyright iTulip, Inc. 1998 - 2007 All Rights Reserved

    All information provided "as is" for informational purposes only, not intended for trading purposes or advice.
    Nothing appearing on this website should be considered a recommendation to buy or to sell any security or related financial instrument. iTulip, Inc. is not liable for any informational errors, incompleteness, or delays, or for any actions taken in reliance on information contained herein. Full Disclaimer


    Cut and paste embed for bloggers: Properties
    HTML Code:
    <object height="500" width="700"><embed src="http://www.itulip.com/video/prtl030407P.swf" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" wmode="transparent" height="500" width="700"></object>
    Cut and paste embed for bloggers: Loan Value
    HTML Code:
    <object height="500" width="700"><embed src="http://www.itulip.com/video/prtl030407V.swf" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" wmode="transparent" height="500" width="700"></object>
    Last edited by FRED; 03-06-07 at 01:45 AM.
    Ed.

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •  
Opinions expressed herein are those of the posters, not those of iTulip, Inc., its owners, or management. All material posted on this board becomes the intellectual property of the poster and iTulip, Inc., and may not be reposted in full on another website without the express written permission of iTulip, Inc. By exception, the original registered iTulip member who authored a post may repost his or her own material on other sites. Permission is hereby granted to repost brief excerpts of material from this forum on other websites provided that attribution and a link to the source is included with the reposted material.

Nothing on this website is intended or should be construed as investment advice. It is intended to be used for informational and entertainment purposes only. We reserve the right to make changes, including change in price, content, description, terms, etc. at any time without notice. By using this board you agree that you understand the risks of trading, and are solely responsible for your own investment and trading decisions. Read full legal disclaimer.

Journalists are not permitted to contact iTulip members through this forum's email and personal messaging services without written permission from iTulip, Inc. Requests for permission may be made via Contact Us.

Objectionable posts may be reported to the board administrators via Contact Us.