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  • ou812
    replied
    Re: Martin Armstrong reports

    A possible explanation:

    Of Course…But Maybe: Financial Advice From Louis CK

    article with video:
    http://awealthofcommonsense.com/cour...vice-louis-ck/

    Of course T.A. has as much investment forecasting merit as Tarot cards and phrenology, but maybe...

    Leave a comment:


  • jk
    replied
    Re: Martin Armstrong reports

    Originally posted by Raz View Post
    Indeed there is. Raz can find almost anything. Old Norm is waiting for you to "tune in".
    So put on your tin-foil hat and enjoy!




    MARKET WATCH

    Prepared by Norman Winski
    Astro-Trend
    as soon as i saw your post, raz, the name i was seeking jumped into my head: peter eliades. so if there are 2 astrologer-market seers, there must be even more [like cockroaches].

    the technician style writings which interested me the most was robert prechter's book, noted below [so i can avoid struggling with formatting issues]. this was not really his elliott wave stuff, so much as an exploration of the idea that the stock market is the timeliest available measure of "social mood," an instantaneous measure of broadly held optimism or pessimism about the market, the economy, and society in general. thus the stock market leads other social changes, hemlines included. this statement also reminds me of finster's observation, also made by mark faber, about how inflation/money moves like a wave through the system.

    .The Wave Principle of Human Social Behavior and the New Science of Socionomics

    as for woodsman's query about martin armstrong, i read his early [and long] papers closely, and even the short pieces he released from jail. i found his work interesting, but i still don't respect numerology as methodology. i still have on my hard drive about 13mb of armstrong articles, including "the business cycle and the future" [a seminal piece originally published sept 1999 and which was, i believe, the first piece in which he said that his 8.6 year cycle was based on 1000*pi days], "a three year old with pocket calculator.." [oct 2009-published from prison], and "conspiracy theories cloaking reality" [another prison piece]. i also have the new yorker article from oct'09 in which the "secret" of pi was further discussed. i always found his writings interesting, but ultimately not of any use for me.

    if anyone cares, the armstrong cycle dates calculated back in 1999, but still to come, are 2015.75 [10/7/15], 2017.9 [12/1/17], 2020.05 [1/26/20] and a few more even further out.

    it might be more interesting if someone wanted to look back to the dates he marked which were to occur after his publication but prior to NOW, and thus subject to scrutiny. those were 2000.7 [9/13/00], 2002.85 [11/8/02], 2005[1/2/05], 2007.15 [2/27/07], 2009.3 [4/23/09], 2011.45 [6/18/11], 2013.6 [8/12/13]. if anyone cares to look and see if anything notable occurred on or near those dates, please let us know.

    fyi, the s&p low of '09 was march 2- 7.5 wks earlier than his '09 date. in his writings he usually emphasizes the uncanny nature of the turn dates, and points to things within a few days at most of the one predicted. so i don't think 7.5 weeks should count as a hit. but there are a lot of other markets, maybe something else turned around his predicted date.
    Last edited by jk; 04-19-14, 05:02 PM.

    Leave a comment:


  • Chris
    replied
    Re: Martin Armstrong reports

    Originally posted by Slimprofits View Post
    I like this one too: Why did the stock market sell off today?

    http://www.thereformedbroker.com/201...ell-off-today/

    Thanks for that. I chuckled a few times. The Financial Times reference I found particularly funny.

    Leave a comment:


  • Slimprofits
    replied
    Re: Martin Armstrong reports

    Originally posted by Chris View Post
    A list of people who can not accurately forecast markets:

    http://www.thereformedbroker.com/201...ecast-markets/
    I like this one too: Why did the stock market sell off today?

    http://www.thereformedbroker.com/201...ell-off-today/

    Leave a comment:


  • Chris
    replied
    Re: Martin Armstrong reports

    A list of people who can not accurately forecast markets:

    http://www.thereformedbroker.com/201...ecast-markets/

    Leave a comment:


  • FrankL
    replied
    Re: Martin Armstrong reports

    Originally posted by EJ View Post
    I find it a mystery that interest in the magical thinking that goes into technical analysis can coexist on a site that is predicated on making forecasts by means of process analysis. The two approaches are absolutely contrary to each other. One is based on magical thinking, the other on rigorous analysis.

    If one traces the path of a rock rolling down a mountain can the shape of that rock's path tell you anything about where that rock is going to go in the next ten seconds or ten minutes or where it will wind up?

    No but a careful study of the mass, speed, and direction of the rock in combination with a rigorous analysis of the terrain below the rock will help you understand where the rock is likely to be headed and may come to rest. The only factor of the rock's direction you can safely assume is that downward path due to gravity. With the technician's view of charts you don't even have that, nor mass, nor speed, nor direction, and on top of that you are ignoring the contour of the ground below counting entirely on the shape of the path behind the rock.

    It's not logical. I don't get how anyone who thinks logically can give it ten minutes' attention.

    I'm fine with the notion of trading on the expected strong influence of such magical thinking among a trading community within the context of a particular thinly traded stock, commodity, or index, but otherwise technical analysis is no better a tool for market forecasting than astrology and other forms of numerology.
    The issue is that when one believes in magical thinking, logic is not going to convey them from doing otherwise.

    I'm sure there are plenty of trading algorithms that exploit belief in various magical thinking-based trading decisions (if not, it's an opportunity!).

    On top of that, Armstrong's 'secret algorithm' and his refusal to hand it over to others being the supposed reason of his prosecution and imprisonment (I'm sure he'll prefer to call it 'persecution') for me is a major red flag that suggests he's a charlatan.

    Final note: his 'reports' when he was imprisoned had entertaining value though (like zerohedge). People like him probably could have been pretty good writers of fiction if they'd tried (missed their calling?)
    Last edited by FrankL; 04-18-14, 03:59 PM.

    Leave a comment:


  • icm63
    replied
    Re: Martin Armstrong reports

    Technical analysis on its own is not enough
    Fundamental analysis on its own is not enough
    A mix of both is required (Jesse Livermore)

    - Technical analysis bad reputation has grown due to the massive growth of the computers, crazy tools invented that promise everything.
    - Fundamental analysis gets a bad rap due to timing, and the massive confusion out there to find the truth behind irrational markets.

    Suggest you read this...

    Leave a comment:


  • Mega
    replied
    Re: Martin Armstrong reports

    Yes EJ................but i bet he buy me a BMW M235i !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
    Mega

    Leave a comment:


  • EJ
    replied
    Re: Martin Armstrong reports

    Originally posted by Woodsman View Post
    Thanks, but I think it is worth examining, if only so you know for yourself and come to your own conclusions. I'd start with the methodology and maybe backtest it against real market data. Truth be told, what I really want is another person's perspective who has actually spent time on Armstrong's work. It would be great to have EJ's or Finster's or Raz's perspective, but the guy is radioactive because of his legal woes and generally comes off as a pain in the @ss. So I doubt very much anyone here with good qualifications would bother with him.
    I find it a mystery that interest in the magical thinking that goes into technical analysis can coexist on a site that is predicated on making forecasts by means of process analysis. The two approaches are absolutely contrary to each other. One is based on magical thinking, the other on rigorous analysis.

    If one traces the path of a rock rolling down a mountain can the shape of that rock's path tell you anything about where that rock is going to go in the next ten seconds or ten minutes or where it will wind up?

    No but a careful study of the mass, speed, and direction of the rock in combination with a rigorous analysis of the terrain below the rock will help you understand where the rock is likely to be headed and may come to rest. The only factor of the rock's direction you can safely assume is that downward path due to gravity. With the technician's view of charts you don't even have that, nor mass, nor speed, nor direction, and on top of that you are ignoring the contour of the ground below counting entirely on the shape of the path behind the rock.

    It's not logical. I don't get how anyone who thinks logically can give it ten minutes' attention.

    I'm fine with the notion of trading on the expected strong influence of such magical thinking among a trading community within the context of a particular thinly traded stock, commodity, or index, but otherwise technical analysis is no better a tool for market forecasting than astrology and other forms of numerology.

    Leave a comment:


  • jpb999
    replied
    Re: Martin Armstrong reports

    My first and probably last post. I ordered Armstrong's "Cycles of War." Here's a partial of my reply to Armstrong:

    "For $75 I expected detailed work product that would help me navigate through the 2014. Instead I get a graphics heavy product focuses almost entirely on distantly past events, and even there it is lacking in content. A 12 page Appendix for a 72 page report? While one appreciates documentation, one doe not appreciate empty padding."

    I found it offensively useless.
    Save your money

    Leave a comment:


  • Woodsman
    replied
    Re: Martin Armstrong reports

    Originally posted by DRumsfeld2000 View Post
    Woodsman

    I really appreciate the detailed answer. I am no great technical analyst and even find some of EJ's great work stretching me. I think that I will give Armstrong a miss. No point wasting money on a pile of charts which make little sense and only confuse me further.
    Thanks, but I think it is worth examining, if only so you know for yourself and come to your own conclusions. I'd start with the methodology and maybe backtest it against real market data. Truth be told, what I really want is another person's perspective who has actually spent time on Armstrong's work. It would be great to have EJ's or Finster's or Raz's perspective, but the guy is radioactive because of his legal woes and generally comes off as a pain in the @ss. So I doubt very much anyone here with good qualifications would bother with him.

    Leave a comment:


  • shiny!
    replied
    Re: Martin Armstrong reports

    Astrological forecasts. Wow. Probably as accurate as the forecasts from the Fed but more entertaining to read.

    Leave a comment:


  • Raz
    replied
    Re: Martin Armstrong reports

    Originally posted by jk View Post
    i used to read armstrong back in the 1990's. my interest diminished when he revealed the secret of his cycle theories: the basic cycles were 3141.5 days: i.e. everything was based on pi. i forget the "secret" of the sub-cycles, but it was similarly uninspiring.

    this revelation put him - in my mind - in with the numerologists and astrologists [do you know there is/was someone publishing market analysis based on astrology?]
    Indeed there is. Raz can find almost anything. Old Norm is waiting for you to "tune in".
    So put on your tin-foil hat and enjoy!




    MARKET WATCH

    Prepared by Norman Winski
    Astro-Trend

    (April 2014) DJIA Close: 16,323.06.

    This month’s letter covers March 31 through May 4.

    April’s major planetary events can be sorted into four windows.

    1. A. 4/06--Uranus 90 U.S. Sun. This is a very negative cycle culmination for U.S. transportation, communications and economic vitality. There may be some sudden disruption of activities. A similar aspect in February 2014 coincided with record airline flight cancellations, disruptions in shipping and the mail. Watch for a major change in trend for U.S. Stocks, T-Bonds & U.S. Dollar.

    B. 4/08--Jupiter 180 U.S. Part of Fortune. This is one of those too much of a good thing cycles for the U.S.. It relates to U.S. finances. There may be a push to spend more money or go further into debt. Watch for an important change in trend for U.S. Stocks, T-Bonds & U.S. Dollar.

    2. A. 4/13--Jupiter 0 U.S. Sun. This is a very positive cycle for the U.S. transportation, communications and economic vitality. Watch for a major change in trend for U.S. Stocks, T-Bonds & U.S. Dollar.

    B. 4/14--Neptune 90 U.S. Ascendant.--This is probably very positive on a short term basis, as the U.S. is deluded into thinking this is a good situation. But longer term, it may later be revealed to have been a major negative. This may involve a government scandal or cover-up involving the Executive Branch.

    C. 4/14 AC--Pluto in Capricorn turns Retrograde. Pluto is the ruling planet for Cocoa, Hogs & Bonds. Capricorn is the ruling sign for Coffee. Watch for a major change in trend for Cocoa, Coffee, Hogs, Stocks & Bonds.

    D. 4/14 AC--Full Moon Lunar Eclipse in Libra. Libra is the ruling sign for Sugar & Wheat. The Moon is associated with Silver. But, possibly more important is that this Lunar Eclipse coincides within a few hours of Pluto Retrograde. My last recollection of a Lunar Eclipse near an outer planet station point was on June 4, 2012, when there was a Lunar Eclipse within a few hours of Neptune Retrograde, which turned out to be the low day of the year for the Stock Market. The point is that a Lunar Eclipse near an outer planet station point is like adding an extra charge to a keg of dynamite and may bring a change in trend for many markets. There is a good chance that 4/14-15 will be the most powerful change in trend window of the month. Given that this occurs just ahead of the April 20-21 Grand Cardinal Cross and that Pluto is a factor in that configuration, this could trigger the Grand Cross with a domino type effect. A Lunar Eclipse coinciding with a Pluto station point is also a high probability window for seismic activity and natural disasters.

    3. A. 4/20--Jupiter in Cancer 90 Uranus in Aries--This is the 90 degree phase of the Jupiter--Uranus cycle, which has a good correlation with the 41 month business cycle. The 90 degree phase is usually a negative influence and therefore has the potential to bring a global economic slowing or recession. Jupiter is the ruling planet for Oats. Cancer is the ruling sign for Silver. Uranus is the ruling planet for Copper. Aries is the ruling sign for Iron & Steel. This is also the first leg of the Grand Cardinal Cross, for which please see the enclosed article. Watch for an important change in trend for these markets at that time.

    B. 4/20--Jupiter in Cancer 180 Pluto in Capricorn. Jupiter is the ruling planet for Sagittarius and Oats. Cancer is the ruling sign for Silver, Food & Housing. Pluto is the ruling planet for Scorpio, Cocoa, Hogs & Bonds. Capricorn is the ruling sign for Coffee. These two planets are forming a 180 degree opposition angle or aspect which is considered a negative angle. The Jupiter factor with this aspect implies an over-supply or over-expansion, or too much of a good thing. This is the second leg of the Grand Cardinal Cross.

    C. 4/21--Uranus in Aries 90 to Pluto in Capricorn. Uranus is the ruling planet for Copper, Computers, Electronics & Technology. Aries has to do with Iron & Steel. Pluto is the ruling planet for Cocoa, Hogs & Bonds. Therefore, watch for a possible problem from a major bank or sovereign debt. Capricorn is the ruling sign for Coffee. Politically, Uranus in Aries can bring revolution or war. When combined with Pluto, this could bring terrorist attacks, mass death and destruction, and major explosions. Seismically, this could coincide with major earthquakes or volcanoes. This is the third leg of the Grand Cardinal Cross.

    4. A. 4/29--New Moon Solar Eclipse in Taurus--The Sun is the ruling body for Corn, Gold and OJ. Taurus is the ruling sign for Cattle and Cotton. Watch for an important change in trend for Cattle, Corn, Cotton, Gold, OJ & Stocks.

    B. Jupiter 90 U.S. Saturn. This is a negative cycle for U.S. Debt, Bonds and U.S. Speculative Markets.

    C. 4/30--Jupiter Contra-Parallel U.S. Part of Fortune. This is one of those too much of a good thing cycles for the U.S.. It relates to U.S. finances. The may be a push to spend more money or go further into debt. Watch for an important change in trend for U.S. Stocks, T-Bonds & U.S. Dollar.

    D. 5/02--Helio Mars enters Scorpio. Scorpio is the ruling sign for Cocoa, Hogs & Bonds. Please see the Martian Markets of the Month New section for more details.

    E. 5/03--Jupiter Parallel U.S. Sun. This is a very positive cycle for the U.S. transportation, communications, and economic vitality. Watch for a major change in trend for U.S. Stocks, T-Bonds & U.S. Dollar.

    APRIL MONITOR LIST: The April planetary analysis indicates that the best areas to monitor this month are: 1) Stocks; 2) T-Bonds; 3) U.S. Dollar 4) Sugar; 5) Wheat; 6) Oats; 7) Cattle & Cotton; 8) Copper; 9) Crude Oil; 10) Corn; 11) Commodity Index; 12 tie) Silver & Soybeans; 13) Coffee; 14) U.S. Fed; and 15 tie) Cocoa & Hogs.


    Major Events
    Date Events Markets Effected
    04/06 Uranus 90 U.S. Sunirect Stocks, T-Bonds, U.S. $
    04/08 Jupiter 180 U.S. PF Stocks, T-Bonds, U.S. $
    04/13 Jupiter 0 U.S. Sun Stocks, T-Bonds, U.S. $
    04/14 Neptune 90 U.S. Asc. Stocks, T-Bonds, U.S. $
    04/14 Pluto/Capricorn Retrograde Cocoa, Coffee, Hogs, Stocks, T-Bonds
    04/15 Lunar Exlipse/Libra Silver, Stocks, Sugar, Wheat
    04/20 Jupiter 90 Uranus Copper, Oats, Silver, Stocks
    04/20 Jupiter 180 Pluto Cocoa, Coffee, Hogs, Oats, Silver, Stocks, Bonds
    04/21 Uranus 90 Pluto Cocoa, Coffee, Copper, Hogs, Stocks, Bonds
    04/28 Saturn 150 U.S. Mars Stocks, T-bonds, U.S.
    04/29 Solar Eclipse/Taurus Cattle, Corn, Cotton, Gold, Orange Juice, Stocks
    04/29 Jupiter 90 U.S. Saturn Stocks, T-Bonds, U.S. $
    04/30 Jupiter # U.S. PF Stocks, T-Bonds, U.S. $
    05/02 Helio Mars > Scorpio Cocoa, Hogs, T-Bonds
    05/03 Jupiter l l U.S. Sun Stocks, T-Bonds, U.S. $



    April 2014
    Norman Winski
    Astro-Trend
    6457 Autumn Woods Blvd., Naples, Florida

    Leave a comment:


  • DRumsfeld2000
    replied
    Re: Martin Armstrong reports

    Woodsman

    I really appreciate the detailed answer. I am no great technical analyst and even find some of EJ's great work stretching me. I think that I will give Armstrong a miss. No point wasting money on a pile of charts which make little sense and only confuse me further.

    Leave a comment:


  • jk
    replied
    Re: Martin Armstrong reports

    i used to read armstrong back in the 1990's. my interest diminished when he revealed the secret of his cycle theories: the basic cycles were 3141.5 days: i.e. everything was based on pi. i forget the "secret" of the sub-cycles, but it was similarly uninspiring.

    this revelation put him - in my mind - in with the numerologists and astrologists [do you know there is/was someone publishing market analysis based on astrology?]

    Leave a comment:

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