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Gary Shilling big call: Stocks down to 600 in 09

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  • Raz
    replied
    Re: Gary Shilling big call: Stocks down to 600 in 09

    Originally posted by metalman View Post
    frankly... kinda mundane...

    a dozen guys out there like him... jim rogers comes to mind. ej's interviewed jim but not lately. does jim count as a market historian? he's old enough
    Metalman if you only read the free stuff on Institutional Advisors it does appear mundane. But I've read every utterance of Bob Hoye's that I could get my hands on since I looked at some of his work back in 1988.

    He's one very smart guy, and his calls over many years have been quite good.
    (Like getting the hell out of equities in the late Spring of 1987!)

    Leave a comment:


  • Ann
    replied
    Re: Gary Shilling big call: Stocks down to 600 in 09

    Originally posted by cjppjc View Post
    I'm not sure if you're saying Shiff loves the media, or it's a mutual love society. I'm sure you remember when Shiff was laughed at on tv. Not a pleasant experience I imagine. Now is he the most modest of guests? No. Earlier Jim Rogers ws mentioned. He's not too modest either. Does anyone not know what he has to say.

    I think the way EJ comports himself, and of course his track record make him the best interview. We are lucky.
    Schiff never criticizes the media. EJ calls them the Flying Monkeys of the FIRE Economy. The media are part of the problem. I'm surprised they ever have him on at all.

    Leave a comment:


  • cjppjc
    replied
    Re: Gary Shilling big call: Stocks down to 600 in 09

    Originally posted by metalman View Post
    schiff media
    I'm not sure if you're saying Shiff loves the media, or it's a mutual love society. I'm sure you remember when Shiff was laughed at on tv. Not a pleasant experience I imagine. Now is he the most modest of guests? No. Earlier Jim Rogers ws mentioned. He's not too modest either. Does anyone not know what he has to say.

    I think the way EJ comports himself, and of course his track record make him the best interview. We are lucky.

    Leave a comment:


  • metalman
    replied
    Re: Gary Shilling big call: Stocks down to 600 in 09

    Originally posted by LargoWinch View Post
    Hmmm Hmmm; I note that we have Schiff on the list. :cool:

    That should make for an interesting interview and I am not even counting in Mega's reaction.



    I can simply imagine...


    Schiff: I was right. I will always be. I am the man. You should buy high-dividend stocks outside the US.

    EJ: But Sir, things are n...

    Schiff: Is my make-up still ok? I am running for Senate you know?

    EJ: Yes, we heard.

    Schiff: So, I am assuming that you will promote this on your site? I am me after all. Lots of good things for you. I can even give you a signed copy of my book!

    EJ: I know a few things about writing books myself.

    Schiff: As I was saying, last night on CNBC - after I met my buddy Glenn - I did a superb piece on how you and your members should buy these Gold stocks through my firm (fees are only 6%). After all, buying gold is so incredibly complex that a nominal fee is more than justifiable.

    EJ: We do not believe in managing our members' money and as such, do not charge management fees. We prefer a simply token fee to access the community and our ideas.

    Schiff: Hmmm. Would that be enough to cover a nice Webcam so that you can film yourself each week and post it on Youtube?

    EJ: [blank stare]

    Schiff: I am running for Senate you know.

    EJ: You already mentioned that.

    Schiff: Oh. Sorry, I was texting FOX hoping for an interview... can you wait here a min.?
    schiff media

    Leave a comment:


  • LargoWinch
    replied
    Re: Gary Shilling big call: Stocks down to 600 in 09

    Originally posted by jk View Post
    you've had interviews with hudson and keen. how about doing interviews with the others? it would make a nice series. actually- there's a quick book. "who could have known?:forecasts from those who saw it coming."
    Hmmm Hmmm; I note that we have Schiff on the list. :cool:

    That should make for an interesting interview and I am not even counting in Mega's reaction.



    I can simply imagine...


    Schiff: I was right. I will always be. I am the man. You should buy high-dividend stocks outside the US.

    EJ: But Sir, things are n...

    Schiff: Is my make-up still ok? I am running for Senate you know?

    EJ: Yes, we heard.

    Schiff: So, I am assuming that you will promote this on your site? I am me after all. Lots of good things for you. I can even give you a signed copy of my book!

    EJ: I know a few things about writing books myself.

    Schiff: As I was saying, last night on CNBC - after I met my buddy Glenn - I did a superb piece on how you and your members should buy these Gold stocks through my firm (fees are only 6%). After all, buying gold is so incredibly complex that a nominal fee is more than justifiable.

    EJ: We do not believe in managing our members' money and as such, do not charge management fees. We prefer a simply token fee to access the community and our ideas.

    Schiff: Hmmm. Would that be enough to cover a nice Webcam so that you can film yourself each week and post it on Youtube?

    EJ: [blank stare]

    Schiff: I am running for Senate you know.

    EJ: You already mentioned that.

    Schiff: Oh. Sorry, I was texting FOX hoping for an interview... can you wait here a min.?

    Leave a comment:


  • ax
    replied
    Re: Gary Shilling big call: Stocks down to 600 in 09

    Originally posted by metalman View Post
    frankly... kinda mundane...

    a dozen guys out there like him... jim rogers comes to mind. ej's interviewed jim but not lately. does jim count as a market historian? he's old enough
    speaking of which, what happened to th Rogers interview?

    Leave a comment:


  • goadam1
    replied
    Re: Gary Shilling big call: Stocks down to 600 in 09

    Originally posted by FRED View Post
    Excellent idea!
    Or in this case, "Capital Idea!"

    Leave a comment:


  • metalman
    replied
    Re: Gary Shilling big call: Stocks down to 600 in 09

    Originally posted by icm63 View Post
    Personally and no offense, I think the profession of economics is a joke, born out of political ideology. There is no other profession were so many can be so wrong.

    Interview market historians or 'street wise traders'!

    Interview: Bob Hoye...or is that still falling on deaf ears.
    frankly... kinda mundane...

    a dozen guys out there like him... jim rogers comes to mind. ej's interviewed jim but not lately. does jim count as a market historian? he's old enough

    Leave a comment:


  • icm63
    replied
    Re: Gary Shilling big call: Stocks down to 600 in 09

    Personally and no offense, I think the profession of economics is a joke, born out of political ideology. There is no other profession were so many can be so wrong.

    Interview market historians or 'street wise traders'!

    Interview: Bob Hoye...or is that still falling on deaf ears.

    Leave a comment:


  • cobben
    replied
    Re: Gary Shilling big call: Stocks down to 600 in 09

    "how about doing interviews with the others?"

    No, not just interviews - pick their minds clean, steal all their secrets! :cool:

    Leave a comment:


  • metalman
    replied
    Re: Gary Shilling big call: Stocks down to 600 in 09

    Originally posted by World Traveler View Post
    How about Dean Baker? Could iTulip do an interview with him? I've been reading his articles for several years and he's the type of interviewee that iTulip does best, he has a big-picture perspective.

    And he something else in common with iTulip, in his column "Beat the Press", he continuously points out the poor financial and economic reporting in the mainstream media.
    yep... how about a follow-up interview...

    Dean Baker, co-director of the Center for Economic and Policy Research.

    Forecast: “Consumer spending has been driven by people borrowing against their home equity at record rates. They’ve borrowed for all kinds of things—for new cars and vacations in some cases, to make ends meet in others. As soon as they run out of cash, they borrow again as long as their house value keeps going up. That ends when prices start falling and a lot of people have no more to borrow.”

    “Consumers are the bulk of the story—70 percent of demand comes from consumer consumption. Probably a third of that consumption is variable to some extent. People could change purchases such as buying new cars and furniture. A mass change in consumption would mean a recession, and it’s very likely to happen. People are going to hit the wall in terms of how much they can borrow with the housing market going down.”

    Rating: 3

    Can Anything Bring Down the Monthly Payment Consumer? Revisited - Eric Janszen

    Leave a comment:


  • World Traveler
    replied
    Re: Gary Shilling big call: Stocks down to 600 in 09

    How about Dean Baker? Could iTulip do an interview with him? I've been reading his articles for several years and he's the type of interviewee that iTulip does best, he has a big-picture perspective.

    And he something else in common with iTulip, in his column "Beat the Press", he continuously points out the poor financial and economic reporting in the mainstream media.

    Leave a comment:


  • FRED
    replied
    Re: Gary Shilling big call: Stocks down to 600 in 09

    Originally posted by jk View Post
    you've had interviews with hudson and keen. how about doing interviews with the others? it would make a nice series. actually- there's a quick book. "who could have known?: interviews with those who saw it coming, with forecasts."
    Excellent idea!

    Leave a comment:


  • jk
    replied
    Re: Gary Shilling big call: Stocks down to 600 in 09

    Originally posted by FRED View Post
    Here is the qualified list of economists whose opinions we will consider and debate because they are in the same league.
    you've had interviews with hudson and keen. how about doing interviews with the others? it would make a nice series. actually- there's a quick book. "who could have known?:forecasts from those who saw it coming."

    Leave a comment:


  • FRED
    replied
    Re: Gary Shilling big call: Stocks down to 600 in 09

    Gary's Shilling's forecast is exactly the same as EJ's forecast published in the current issue of Harvard Business Review, a decline in PCE from 71% to 60%.

    Our track record on the housing market and the timing of market downturns is far better than Shilling's:

    The reason is that our methodlogy is better.

    It doesn't work to mix minor and major league players in the same game. We like to hear from economists who have a record that is as good or better than ours but who have a different view of the world.

    Here is the qualified list of economists whose opinions we will consider and debate because they are in the same league.

    Shilling does not qualify. Moving to Junk Economics.
    Last edited by FRED; 08-04-09, 10:07 AM.

    Leave a comment:

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