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  • #61
    Re: Case-Shiller Housing Charts - Long-term, etc.

    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-0...ecline-4-.html


    Home Prices in 20 U.S. Cities Decline 4%
    By Shobhana Chandra - Feb 28, 2012 9:43 AM ET

    Home prices in 20 U.S. cities dropped more than forecast in December to the lowest level since the housing crisis began in mid-2006, indicating foreclosures are hampering the industry’s recovery.

    The S&P/Case-Shiller index of property values in 20 cities fell 4 percent from a year earlier, after decreasing 3.9 percent in November, a report from the group showed today in New York. The median forecast of 31 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News called for a 3.7 percent decline.
    Distressed properties returning to the market mean prices will stay depressed, prompting buyers to wait for cheaper bargains and impeding construction. While sales have begun to stabilize, a rebound in home values may take time, underscoring Federal Reserve policy makers’ concern that weakness in housing is blunting their efforts to spur the economic expansion.
    “We’re still dealing with a lot of distressed properties and very low absolute levels of demand,” said Sean Incremona, a senior economist at 4Cast Inc. in New York, who accurately projected the 4 percent drop. “We’re not seeing any of the stabilization in housing activity filter through to prices.”
    A separate report today from the Commerce Department showed orders for U.S. durable goods fell in January by the most in three years, led by a slowdown in demand for commercial aircraft and business equipment.
    Three Years

    Bookings for goods meant to last at least three years slumped4 percent, more than forecast, after a revised 3.2 percent gain the prior month. Economists projected a 1 percent decline, according to the median forecast in a Bloomberg News survey.
    The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index was little changed at 1,367.54 at 9:34 a.m. in New York. The 10-year Treasury yield fell two basis points from late yesterday to 1.90 percent.
    Economists’ estimates for the year-over-year change in the home price index for December ranged from declines of 4.1 percent to 3.2 percent, according to the survey. The Case- Shiller index is based on a three-month average, which means the December data was influenced by transactions in October and November.
    The November reading was previously reported as a year- over-year drop of 3.7 percent.
    Home prices adjusted for seasonal variations fell 0.5 percent in December from the prior month, following a decrease of 0.7 percent in November. Unadjusted prices fell 1.1 percent from the prior month.
    Shows Trends

    The year-over-year gauge, begun in 2001, provides better indications of trends in prices, the group has said. The panel includes Karl Case and Robert Shiller, the economists who created the index.
    Nineteen of the 20 cities in the index showed a year-over- year decline, led by a 12.8 percent drop in Atlanta. Detroit showed the only increase, with prices rising 0.5 percent in December.
    Nationally, prices decreased 4 percent in the fourth quarter from the same time in 2010 to the lowest level since mid-2006. They fell 3.8 percent from the previous three months before seasonal adjustment, and fell 1.7 percent after taking those changes into account.
    “The pickup in the economy has simply not been strong enough to keep home prices stabilized,” David Blitzer, chairman of the S&P index committee, said in a statement. “If anything, it looks like we might have re-entered a period of decline as we begin 2012.”
    Demand Steadies

    Recent reports indicate demand is steadying. Existing-home (ETSLTOTL) sales rose to a 4.57 million annual rate in January, the National Association of Realtors reported last week. While it was the best showing since May 2010, distressed properties made up the largest portion of all purchases since April.
    Toll Brothers Inc. (TOL) and D.R. Horton Inc. are among builders benefiting from job growth as well as cheaper properties and record-low mortgage rates.
    “We’re optimistic,” Doug Yearley, chief executive officer at Horsham, Pennsylvania-based Toll Brothers, said in a Feb. 22 interview with Bloomberg Television. “We have orders that are up significantly. We’re seeing deposits up, we’re seeing traffic up.”
    Excess supply of distressed properties is dragging down values for all houses. About 5 million houses have been lost to foreclosure in the U.S. since 2006, according to RealtyTrac Inc. Banks may seize more than 1 million U.S. homes this year after legal scrutiny of their foreclosure practices slowed actions against delinquent homeowners in 2011, it said last month.
    “Restoring the health of the housing market is a necessary part of a broader strategy for economic recovery,” Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said in the cover letter of a Fed study on the housing market that he sent to Congress last month.
    To contact the reporter on this story: Shobhana Chandra in Washington atschandra1@bloomberg.net

    Greg

    Comment


    • #62
      Re: Case-Shiller Housing Charts - Long-term, etc.

      Another quarter down for the national Case-Shiller index, making a new nominal low of 35.07% below peak.


      The CPI-adjusted index has set a new low of 43.41% below peak.


      Atlanta, Chicago, Las Vegas, New York, and Portland have set new lows, along with the 10-city and the 20-city composites. A bold headline this morning on Marketwatch declared there was no change [in the 20-city index] from February to March, but in fact there was ever the slightest, from 134.14 to 134.10.





      In the tiered indices, Atlanta and Chicago have hit new lows in all three categories. Las Vegas is at new lows in the low- and mid- tiers, Los Angeles in the high-tier, New York in the low- and high-tiers, Portland in the high-tier, Seattle in the low-tier, and Tampa in the mid-tier. A bit of a scattershot this time around.



      Comment


      • #63
        Re: Case-Shiller Housing Charts - Long-term, etc.

        Originally posted by zoog View Post
        Another quarter down for the national Case-Shiller index, making a new nominal low of 35.07% below peak...
        A bounce from the winter low puts the Q2 nominal index at 30.22% below peak, and the CPI-adjusted index at 39.21% below peak. All the sampled cities are above their recent lows.











        Comment


        • #64
          Re: Case-Shiller Housing Charts - Long-term, etc.

          Originally posted by zoog View Post
          A bounce from the winter low puts the Q2 nominal index at 30.22% below peak, and the CPI-adjusted index at 39.21% below peak. All the sampled cities are above their recent lows.
          The indices continued to climb in the summer, putting the Q3 nominal index at 28.57% below peak, and the CPI-adjusted index at 38.29% below peak.

          A couple months ago, EJ stated they now prefer the All-Transactions House Price Index from the FRED database. I have added it in black to the nominal chart.

          Originally posted by EJ View Post
          ...By the way, we've stopped using the Case-Shiller home price indexes that are so popular with most of the financial media. We prefer the index built of actual home sale transactions. It's more reliable even if it doesn't supply fodder for the endless debate about the bottom of the housing market. As you can see there are no bounces in the transactions data but a continuous decline...
          Well, it's less volatile at any rate. Each index available to us has flaws which must be considered. For example, the Case-Shiller indices are value-weighted; this means high-end homes have a greater effect on the overall index. It has included all kinds of mortgages including jumbo and subprime, which can also increase volatility. Conversely, the house price indices prepared by the Federal Housing Finance Agency (formerly the OFHEO, et al) are based on data from Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac conforming mortgages. After the bust, this has included ~90% of mortages; but with upper caps excluding jumbo mortgages, during the boom many expensive cities were under-reported. Their indices include conforming refinance appraisals, whereas Case-Shiller only counts sales. Also, neither index accounts for cash sales; before the boom this was reported to be about 10% of all sales, but now accounts for as much as 30%.











          Comment


          • #65
            Re: Case-Shiller Housing Charts - Long-term, etc.

            There was little change between Q3 and Q4 2012, with the nominal index at 28.81% below peak, and the CPI-adjusted at 38.01% below peak.











            Comment


            • #66
              Re: Case-Shiller Housing Charts - Long-term, etc.

              Originally posted by zoog View Post
              There was little change between Q3 and Q4 2012, with the nominal index at 28.81% below peak, and the CPI-adjusted at 38.01% below peak.
              And once again, a minimal difference, still hovering at nominal -28% and CPI-adjusted -38% below peak, with only subtle changes behind the decimal.











              Comment


              • #67
                Re: Case-Shiller Housing Charts - Long-term, etc.

                After three flat quarters, a fairly dramatic rise for Q3 2013, taking the nominal index back up to -22.96% from the peak, and CPI-adjusted to -34.04%. They had been stuck around -28% and -38% respectively. Even the All-Transactions House Price Index has shown a gain, though more restrained.




                All of the tracked cities have seen gains, with Dallas and Denver even peeking above their original peaks.



                Comment


                • #68
                  Re: Case-Shiller Housing Charts - Long-term, etc.

                  Originally posted by zoog View Post
                  After three flat quarters, a fairly dramatic rise for Q[2] 2013, taking the nominal index back up to -22.96% from the peak, and CPI-adjusted to -34.04%. They had been stuck around -28% and -38% respectively. Even the All-Transactions House Price Index has shown a gain, though more restrained....
                  Another gain for Q3, though not as pronounced as Q2. [Just realized I typed Q3 in the last post but of course it was Q2]. The nominal index stands at 20.54% below peak, and CPI-adjusted at 32.16% below. Presumably Q4 will moderate further as the seasonal lull begins to take hold (however, because of the methodology, Q4 still includes some summer activity).







                  Comment


                  • #69
                    Re: Case-Shiller Housing Charts - Long-term, etc.

                    Zoog, I'm surprised that the numbers continue to be positive and you can't convince anyone that there is inventory out there.

                    House Hunters episode last night was a couple seeking a big home in the suburbs of Boston. The Boston area home shoppers were able to look at 3 uninhabited homes. Doesn't anyone find it unusual that the real estate market is super hot and yet every potential home owner on house hunters has three unoccupied homes to look at!

                    Talk to every body you know about their home buying experience and you'll learn that most home buyers look at occupied homes (with the exception of new construction and then it is usually in the process of being built).

                    The best part is this Boston area couple doesn't even recognize that the should be making a true low ball offer. But, the house they decide they must have has an asking price of $850K and they the home for $830K (if my memory serves me well).

                    When I bought my last home I didn't look at any unoccupied homes, how is it possible that every one believes that the market is tight when there are so many empty and unoccupied homes?
                    http://www.hgtv.com/house-hunters/show/index.html

                    Comment


                    • #70
                      Re: Case-Shiller Housing Charts - Long-term, etc.

                      Originally posted by BK View Post
                      Zoog, I'm surprised that the numbers continue to be positive and you can't convince anyone that there is inventory out there.

                      House Hunters episode last night was a couple seeking a big home in the suburbs of Boston. The Boston area home shoppers were able to look at 3 uninhabited homes. Doesn't anyone find it unusual that the real estate market is super hot and yet every potential home owner on house hunters has three unoccupied homes to look at!

                      Talk to every body you know about their home buying experience and you'll learn that most home buyers look at occupied homes (with the exception of new construction and then it is usually in the process of being built).

                      The best part is this Boston area couple doesn't even recognize that the should be making a true low ball offer. But, the house they decide they must have has an asking price of $850K and they the home for $830K (if my memory serves me well).

                      When I bought my last home I didn't look at any unoccupied homes, how is it possible that every one believes that the market is tight when there are so many empty and unoccupied homes?
                      http://www.hgtv.com/house-hunters/show/index.html
                      Hm, I guess my experience is different, though I agree with your sentiment. In my pre-itulip days, I bought a house in 2005, in the month that Portland metro hit the lowest inventory numbers on record (since early 1990's at least). Supply was 1.5 months, but the five or so houses I considered were all empty. This summer we dropped to 2.5 months, average and median prices were within 10% of the 2007 peak, and I heard anecdotes of bidding wars and full-cash offers, all of which makes me shake my head. I still see empty, abandoned-ish houses on my bike rides; shadow inventory from foreclosures? On the other hand, our apartment vacancy rate is 3.11 as of last report (I think national average is around 8), with average rents rising 6.8% in six months, which is probably contributing to the homebuying spree. Of course people being priced out of buying homes are in turn filling up the rentals.
                      Last edited by zoog; 11-28-13, 11:13 PM.

                      Comment


                      • #71
                        Re: Case-Shiller Housing Charts - Long-term, etc.

                        Originally posted by zoog View Post
                        Another gain for Q3, though not as pronounced as Q2. The nominal index stands at 20.54% below peak, and CPI-adjusted at 32.16% below. Presumably Q4 will moderate further as the seasonal lull begins to take hold (however, because of the methodology, Q4 still includes some summer activity).
                        A very slight drop for Q4 2013, with nominal at -20.82% and CPI-adjusted -32.08%. Nothing more than the winter pause in that. Will have to wait for Q1 numbers to see if the climb continues or if we're into another rollover.







                        Comment


                        • #72
                          Re: Case-Shiller Housing Charts - Long-term, etc.

                          A nearly-flat first quarter, with the nominal slightly higher and the CPI-adjusted slightly lower.







                          Comment


                          • #73
                            Re: Case-Shiller Housing Charts - Long-term, etc.

                            Major changes to the source data. The quarterly national index is now a monthly index like the others (however, those "monthly" numbers are really three-month rolling averages). This threw a wrench into my spreadsheet, requiring me to rebuild it. Beyond filling in the monthly values back to 1987, I'm not sure what changed, but the numbers are definitely different from the old quarterly series. I have shown the old series in purple on the charts for comparison.

                            At any rate, using the new series, June 2014 is down 9.9% from the peak in July 2006.


                            I have added an enlarged chart starting in 2000 to better show the differences between new and old series, along with the All-Transactions House Price Index and the CoreLogic index. By the way, Fiserv bought Case Shiller Weiss in 2002 and partnered with Standard and Poors, then CoreLogic bought the series in 2013.


                            The CPI-adjusted series at June 2014 is 23.7% below the peak, which in this case was December 2005.


                            I have also added a YOY chart starting in 2000, with the main series in June 2014 at +6.24%.


                            The city series appear to have only minor changes from before.

                            Comment


                            • #74
                              Re: Case-Shiller Housing Charts - Long-term, etc.

                              Originally posted by zoog View Post
                              Major changes to the source data. The quarterly national index is now a monthly index like the others (however, those "monthly" numbers are really three-month rolling averages). This threw a wrench into my spreadsheet, requiring me to rebuild it. Beyond filling in the monthly values back to 1987, I'm not sure what changed, but the numbers are definitely different from the old quarterly series....
                              thanks for keeping up with this one, zoog.

                              wonder what it'll take - or what's going to happen - before we learn the inevitable answer to this "unexpected revision" ?

                              Comment


                              • #75
                                Re: Case-Shiller Housing Charts - Long-term, etc.

                                So here we are with September 2014. The nominal index is 9.28% below the peak.




                                The CPI-adjusted is down 23.11% from the peak.


                                The YOY has dropped from 6.24% to 4.81%.


                                Almost every city has gained a percent or two.


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