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Ponzi schemes: Social Security & Medicare due for total collapse ...

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  • Ponzi schemes: Social Security & Medicare due for total collapse ...

    Ponzi schemes: Social Security & Medicare due for total collapse ... no matter how this global finance system crisis plays itself out.

    Odds and sods
    • Alaska, Hawaii & Guam don't even pay into Social Security, and ditto for Medicare.
    • Social Security Disability actually forces the more able out of the workforce permanently -- so their ability to pay any kind of real taxes goes to nil.
    • Medicare has been sucked on the US medical community for decades in ways that make this tiny fragment of socialized medicine in the US cost way more than the total cost of running the NHS (in total overall running costs not in direct GAAP costs).
    • Most of the US productive capacity has been offshored, so the US lacks a way to export its way out of this manufactured crisis. Except for Agricultural productive capacity, it is not so easy to bring this productive capacity back.
    • The relative lack of health care for children in the US will probably indirectly contribute to the implosion of social Security and Medicare -- but it will not be mathematically obvious until after the fact. This has been a 40 to 50 year problem that the US has never really fixed...
    • The reduction of the ratio of workers to retirees is actually not part of the real world structural problems of Social Security and Medicare -- but it is a universal 'fly in the ointment' of all national retirement schemes that fail to adapt to it correctly.
    Last edited by billstew; 03-11-09, 05:16 AM.

  • #2
    Reason for the insolvency of these schemes: ~700k of debt per person in the US

    Reason for the insolvency of these schemes: ~700k of debt per person in the US

    Here are some spreadsheet numbers that allude to the nature of the problem...



    Known Data
    Notes & Sources

    Total US Population 306,001,001 Millions of people via US Census Clock
    guesstimate Total US Working Population 253,980,831 US residents with tax generating income
    guesstimate Total US Tax Paying Population 208,264,281 US residents “taxes > govt resources used”




    guesstimate Removal Working Population from % pop 17.00% Remove children and elderly poor
    guesstimate Removal non-Tax Paying Pop from % Working Pop 18.00% Remove nominal tax payers
    estimate Governmental Interest Rate Average 4.55% Guesstimate
    estimate Commercial Interest Rate Average (non CC) 8.50% Guesstimate excluding Credit Cards
    estimate Consumer Interest Rate Average, housing 7.50% Guesstimate
    estimate Consumer Interest Rate Average, non housing 15.55% Guesstimate, mainly for credit cards




    estimate Federal Government Debt $53,010,100,100,100 Constant dollars (2009)
    estimate State Government Debt $5,010,100,100,010 Constant dollars (2009)
    estimate Local Govt Debt (county, city, water districts, etc) $3,501,000,100,011 Constant dollars (2009)
    estimate Consumer Housing Debt $30,000,100,100,100 Constant dollars (2009)
    estimate Consumer Credit Card Debt, Car Loan Debt etc... $20,000,100,100,101 Constant dollars (2009)
    estimate Commercial Sector Debt $10,000,000,100,011 Constant dollars (2009)




    subtotals Interest Incurred Debt (commercial, 5 years) $4,250,000,042,505 Constant dollars (2009)
    subtotals Interest Incurred Debt (consumer, 7 years) $37,520,161,511,513 Constant dollars (2009)
    subtotals Interest Incurred Debt (governmental, 20 years) $55,984,292,273,110 Constant dollars (2009)





    Debt Total $219,275,854,427,460 Constant dollars (2009)





    Implied outcomes

    subtotals Debt per person $716,585 What is owed per person
    subtotals Debt per working person $863,356 What is owed per working person
    subtotals Debt per (working) tax paying person $1,052,873 What is owed per tax paying person
    subtotals Debt per {Household} $2,116,873 Total owed per household (2.28 per House)

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