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  • ? One of the most important posts on iTulip??

    For me it is not always easy to grasp the implications of things that are posted on iTulip. Many are way over my head, and probably just as many are oblique in whatever may be the intended meanings--assuming some meaning is actually intended.

    Sapiens, the "cryptic one," in his thread http://www.itulip.com/forums/newrepl...wreply&p=16262

    on 9/19/07 wrote:

    Originally posted by Sapiens View Post
    Do not let the Fed’s cut diversion fool you.

    There are massive amounts of derivatives that CANNOT be safely priced right now. There are massive losses currently hidden from the public. DO NOT PANIC.

    Keep you liquid assets handy, you will come to a buyers market soon enough.
    To which I replied:
    Originally posted by Nickerson
    Nothing cryptic about your post here, except one might ask, as one could of many things that get posted on iTulip, is how do you really know you are correct in your assertion of the massive losses currently hidden from the public?

    To which Sapiens replied:
    Originally posted by Sapiens
    Jim, the reason I know, it's because I am right in the middle of it. I am wading in a un[de]terminable sea of dubious paper.
    -Sapiens
    I have asked on that thread if Sapiens wishes to reaveal more about what he knows with regard to his personal experience of "wading in an undeterminable-interminable sea of dubious paper"?

    We all, I presume, read a lot of stuff on the web and on iTulip, and the question when individuals choose to make statements about what is going to happen with the markets is always for me: how does this "dude" know what he is writing about, or is he purely speculating about what may be going to happen and is looking for someone to agree or disagree?

    Sapiens statements in bold blue above are potentially tremendously important, if Sapiens is privy to knowledge because of some position he suggests he occupies.

    I for one would definitely like more insight about what Sapiens knows if he is willing to share it. I hope he is.
    Last edited by Jim Nickerson; 09-20-07, 03:16 PM.
    Jim 69 y/o

    "...Texans...the lowest form of white man there is." Robert Duvall, as Al Sieber, in "Geronimo." (see "Location" for examples.)

    Dedicated to the idea that all people deserve a chance for a healthy productive life. B&M Gates Fdn.

    Good judgement comes from experience; experience comes from bad judgement. Unknown.

  • #2
    Re: ? One of the most important posts on iTulip??

    Originally posted by Jim Nickerson View Post

    I have asked on that thread if Sapiens wishes to reaveal more about what he knows with regard to his personal experience of "wading in an undeterminable sea of dubious paper"?
    You asked on that thread what he meant by "unterminable" and guessed "undeterminable". I would guess rather that he meant interminable, that is, endless.

    As to where Sapiens get his info and how solid it is, I'm as curious as you are.

    Comment


    • #3
      Re: ? One of the most important posts on iTulip??

      Originally posted by Jim Nickerson View Post
      For me it is not always easy to grasp the implications of things that are posted on iTulip. Many are way over my head, and probably just as many are oblique in whatever may be the intended meanings--assuming some meaning is actually intended.

      Sapiens, the "cryptic one," in his thread http://www.itulip.com/forums/newrepl...wreply&p=16262

      on 9/19/07 wrote:



      To which I replied:


      To which Sapiens replied:

      I have asked on that thread if Sapiens wishes to reaveal more about what he knows with regard to his personal experience of "wading in an undeterminable sea of dubious paper"?

      We all, I presume, read a lot of stuff on the web and on iTulip, and the question when individuals choose to make statements about what is going to happen with the markets is always for me: how does this "dude" know what he is writing about, or is he purely speculating about what may be going to happen and is looking for someone to agree or disagree?

      Sapiens statements in bold blue above are potentially tremendously important, if Sapiens is privy to knowledge because of some position he suggests he occupies.

      I for one would definitely like more insight about what Sapiens knows if he is willing to share it. I hope he is.
      Quick reminder on iTulip's confidentiality policy. We sometimes verify the identities of members to ensure that no one is overstating their claim to access to key information of value to our members. We can say that members may be surprised to know who some of their fellow members are, but we'll never say. Short of a subpoena, which we'd fight if we had grounds to do so, iTulip has not and will not reveal the identities of members unless they provide written permission for us to do so.
      Ed.

      Comment


      • #4
        Re: ? One of the most important posts on iTulip??

        Originally posted by Fred View Post
        Quick reminder on iTulip's confidentiality policy. We sometimes verify the identities of members to ensure that no one is overstating their claim to access to key information of value to our members. We can say that members may be surprised to know who some of their fellow members are, but we'll never say. Short of a subpoena, which we'd fight if we had grounds to do so, iTulip has not and will not reveal the identities of members unless they provide written permission for us to do so.
        Well, that is not the reply I had expected. Make no mistake, Fred, I was not asking iTulip to identify the credentials of Sapiens. I was asking Sapiens to say something more about what he appears to know. What is revealed that would in this forum add to his credibility is up to him. As long as people use pseudonyms, I don't see where anyone's wish to maintain anonymity is compromised. Shit, for all I know Sapiens may be Hank Paulson, and Hank could say whatever he wishes under "Sapiens" and who would ever know?
        Jim 69 y/o

        "...Texans...the lowest form of white man there is." Robert Duvall, as Al Sieber, in "Geronimo." (see "Location" for examples.)

        Dedicated to the idea that all people deserve a chance for a healthy productive life. B&M Gates Fdn.

        Good judgement comes from experience; experience comes from bad judgement. Unknown.

        Comment


        • #5
          Re: ? One of the most important posts on iTulip??

          Originally posted by Jim Nickerson View Post
          Well, that is not the reply I had expected. Make no mistake, Fred, I was not asking iTulip to identify the credentials of Sapiens. I was asking Sapiens to say something more about what he appears to know. What is revealed that would in this forum add to his credibility is up to him. As long as people use pseudonyms, I don't see where anyone's wish to maintain anonymity is compromised. Shit, for all I know Sapiens may be Hank Paulson, and Hank could say whatever he wishes under "Sapiens" and who would ever know?
          Don't get me wrong. Wasn't implying that you were asking for Sapiens' ID. But keep in mind that several members need occasional re-assurance of our policy.

          The only way you can really know if someone has access to the info they say they do is if over time they provide information and over time events show it to be true.
          Ed.

          Comment


          • #6
            Re: ? One of the most important posts on iTulip??

            Originally posted by Fred View Post
            Don't get me wrong. Wasn't implying that you were asking for Sapiens' ID. But keep in mind that several members need occasional re-assurance of our policy.

            The only way you can really know if someone has access to the info they say they do is if over time they provide information and over time events show it to be true.
            I think someone could say, I work in a "whatever-type-business-it-is" that deals with derivatives, and this is what I see. Of course, no one knows if the the individual is lying or telling the truth, and then time, as you suggest, could bear out the validity of whatever statements were made.

            SeanO for example has chosen to identify his business to the extent that it certainly adds validity to what he may opine or offer as fact about real estate matters, and one can determine that I as one who was an oral surgeon probably does not know his ass from his elbow.
            Jim 69 y/o

            "...Texans...the lowest form of white man there is." Robert Duvall, as Al Sieber, in "Geronimo." (see "Location" for examples.)

            Dedicated to the idea that all people deserve a chance for a healthy productive life. B&M Gates Fdn.

            Good judgement comes from experience; experience comes from bad judgement. Unknown.

            Comment


            • #7
              Re: ? One of the most important posts on iTulip??

              Heh, don't scare the groundhog, Jim, we may never find out of he sees his shadow or not.

              Comment


              • #8
                Re: ? One of the most important posts on iTulip??

                Jim,

                I mentioned previously that JPM has a really low Tier 1 cap ratio compared to the industry average.

                You have probably seen already that many of the major banks are using SIVs - think Enron off balance sheet vehicles.

                We all collectively already have internalized the scale of the subprime/Alt-A/neg-am MBS debacle.

                Put that all together and the result: Someone or several someones is choking on hidden bad debt.

                Think Japan.

                Comment


                • #9
                  Re: ? One of the most important posts on iTulip??

                  Originally posted by c1ue View Post
                  Jim,

                  I mentioned previously that JPM has a really low Tier 1 cap ratio compared to the industry average.

                  You have probably seen already that many of the major banks are using SIVs - think Enron off balance sheet vehicles.

                  We all collectively already have internalized the scale of the subprime/Alt-A/neg-am MBS debacle.

                  Put that all together and the result: Someone or several someones is choking on hidden bad debt.

                  Think Japan.
                  C1ue, no disrespect to your thinking on these matters, but to me your thoughts though perhaps perfect, are the thoughts of someone on the outside looking in, vs. what might be the truth revealed if one is actually on the inside (of something?). Sapiens, at least to me, has suggested he is on the inside, and the closest thing I know of anyone on iTulip to being on the "inside" is EJ or SeanO, but even such as they might not be privy to as much as one who is actually dealing with all this derivative stuff.
                  Last edited by Jim Nickerson; 09-20-07, 02:52 PM.
                  Jim 69 y/o

                  "...Texans...the lowest form of white man there is." Robert Duvall, as Al Sieber, in "Geronimo." (see "Location" for examples.)

                  Dedicated to the idea that all people deserve a chance for a healthy productive life. B&M Gates Fdn.

                  Good judgement comes from experience; experience comes from bad judgement. Unknown.

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Re: ? One of the most important posts on iTulip??

                    Originally posted by c1ue View Post

                    Put that all together and the result: Someone or several someones is choking on hidden bad debt.

                    Think Japan.
                    Uh, just out of curiosity, if that's true, how would it affect the Yen?

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Re: ? One of the most important posts on iTulip??

                      Originally posted by Jim Nickerson View Post

                      one can determine that I as one who was an oral surgeon probably does not know his ass from his elbow.
                      Good thing you weren't an orthopedic surgeon, then, or a proctologist.

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Re: ? One of the most important posts on iTulip??

                        Originally posted by Andreuccio View Post
                        Good thing you weren't an orthopedic surgeon, then, or a proctologist.
                        I don't get your point about it being good that I wasn't an orthopedist. Edit: Yes, I do get it: elbow and ass

                        But with regard to proctology, I could not count the number of people who upon learning I was in dentistry would say, "ooh, how can you stand to put your hands in people's mouths." Shows how ******* dumb people are.
                        Jim 69 y/o

                        "...Texans...the lowest form of white man there is." Robert Duvall, as Al Sieber, in "Geronimo." (see "Location" for examples.)

                        Dedicated to the idea that all people deserve a chance for a healthy productive life. B&M Gates Fdn.

                        Good judgement comes from experience; experience comes from bad judgement. Unknown.

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Re: ? One of the most important posts on iTulip??

                          Originally posted by Andreuccio View Post
                          Uh, just out of curiosity, if that's true, how would it affect the Yen?
                          C1ue can give you his answer, but the thing that continues to guide my simple thinking on the yen is that there is supposedly a tremendous short position on it, and presumably at some point that will be covered--thus driving up the value of the yen. I've got about a 10% position in FXY.
                          Jim 69 y/o

                          "...Texans...the lowest form of white man there is." Robert Duvall, as Al Sieber, in "Geronimo." (see "Location" for examples.)

                          Dedicated to the idea that all people deserve a chance for a healthy productive life. B&M Gates Fdn.

                          Good judgement comes from experience; experience comes from bad judgement. Unknown.

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Re: ? One of the most important posts on iTulip??

                            Originally posted by Jim Nickerson View Post
                            C1ue can give you his answer, but the thing that continues to guide my simple thinking on the yen is that there is supposedly a tremendous short position on it, and presumably at some point that will be covered--thus driving up the value of the yen. I've got about a 10% position in FXY.
                            10% FXY is about where I'm at, too. I wonder, though, if it's a bet well placed. How much will the Yen appreciate against the dollar when/if the carry trade unwinds? How will that compare against the appreciation we might have seen in, say, Gold, for instance.

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Re: ? One of the most important posts on iTulip??

                              I have a chunk in FXY, too.

                              I'm not so concerned about how it will compare to gold, since I view them as somewhat different types of risks, and therefore a form of diversification that is desirable.

                              However, to answer your question perhaps you could get an idea of how much you'd make with FXY by looking at historical highs, then compare that with how you think gold might perform. The figures of $2000-$3000 per ounce get bandied about a lot for gold, but no one really knows.

                              If you do the calculations for FXY and gold, please let us know the results . . . .
                              raja
                              Boycott Big Banks Vote Out Incumbents

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