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  • #16
    bart, jeffolie above referenced a mac oscillator for the NDX, not the nasdaq.

    I just wonder if there is any public site at which the one he mentioned can be accessed.

    thanks.

    Jim
    True and I'm unaware of one, but the Nasdaq McClellan not only broke through zero with large gaps but also has quite high correlation with the NDX.

    Hopefully Jeff will chime in...


    http://www.NowAndTheFuture.com

    Comment


    • #17
      Looks like it the Poom in K-Poom is starting.
      EJ:

      This is trivial, but is Ka-Poom meant to be phonetic for the sound an explosion makes? Being a Southerner, I would say Ka-Boom! Though use of boom would convey something positive going up in the markets and might confuse.

      In your post of revised and extended Ka-Poom Theory yesterday, there is a hyperlink not so random at the bulleted Poom that doesn't seem to work, all the other hyperlinks I clicked on did work, so perhaps it isn't my browser.

      In your 1999 Ka-Poom you speculated a parabolic rise in interest rates to levels that I suppose qualify as hyperinflation in about three years from what I figure was mid-2002.

      Yesterday, in revised Ka-Boom Theory you extended the peak out to 2014 with a zag before it gets there. If it is not too complicated to answer, what sort of thinking leads to your notion of it lasting relatively longer?

      I appreciate your work and site.

      Jim
      Jim,

      Yes, I chose "Poom" over "Boom" for that reason... the word "Boom" has the wrong connotation

      The possibility of a stall in the parabolic rise in interest rates and inflation is a warning that one should expect the world's central banks to mount a last stand to support the dollar. None win from a sudden collapse. That doesn't mean we won't get one. But there is a lot at stake. Do not underestimte the extent of the effort that will be made to maintain.

      Here's a paradox for you: 70 years of suffering under Communism for millions was the result of the last failure of "free marlet" capitalism.

      We've ever experienced the ideal of free marlet capitalism, but I hope some day we will.

      The early stages of a shift from quasi-free market capitalism to totalitarian capitalism are indiated by 1) deception and 2) fear.

      Best think in terms of processes versus events.




      Comment


      • #18
        Hi Eric,

        I discovered iTulip.com in 2002 or 2003 (can't remember now) and checked back every few months. I found it (and prudentbear.com) when I drew the connection in my head between rising housing prices and the innumerable credit card offers in the mail. At the time it felt like I was the only one who had that light bulb go off in my head. I'm only an ordinary person, engineer by training, not an economist!

        Delighted to see you're back, with new stuff on Housing and the Ka-Poom theory. Particularly the Ka-Poom theory. Inflation has been on my mind for the last three or four years, so the idea of precious metals and energy has been an easy sell for me. I think we can expect a shake-out in both commodities this year but plan to hang on tight. Keep posting, you are doing a great service. Wondering how long the first "Poom" will run before we get the second "Ka" (aka Dollar's Last Stand?) Worried how it might drag down the canadian dollar (yeah, we're Canadian, that alone has saved us a lot of grief already but we need to think how a dollar devaluation/crash impacts us too).

        comments welcome.

        VK, thanks for your support. No telling how long a "Custer's Last Stand" for the US dollar might last. No one wants to see the dollar collapse, but no one wants to be left holding the bag if it does. I expect PMs will remain a decent hedge throughout.


        Comment


        • #19
          EJ wrote:
          Here's a paradox for you: 70 years of suffering under Communism for millions was the result of the last failure of free marlet capitalism.

          We've ever experienced the ideal of free marlet capitalism, but I hope some day we will.

          The early stages of a shift from quasi-free market capitalism to totalitarian capitalism are indiated by 1) deception and 2) fear.

          Best think in terms of processes versus events.

          A while back, I sent EJ and email asking if he could provide me with a copy of his curriculum vitae. He didn't, which is fine. My reason for asking was curiosity about what is the educational background of people like him. It is absolutely clear to me that there are participants on this web site that know way more than I do, and though I am absolutely not in any position to question their credulity, I do out of my natural curiosity wonder what was their formal educational experience.

          Many of these topics involve economics, finance, and accounting (and perhaps other disciplines I cannot name) and I personally have no formal education in any of these areas--I am not sure I could even accurately define them off the top of my head.

          Above each posting on a forum there is an icom of a face which when clicked shows a bit about the author of the note. Most of them that I have clicked really reveal nothing about the author. I wish respectufly to suggest that participants might click the My Profile button at the top of the forum page and edit their profiles to the extent that in the Interests field they enter their educational backgrounds. It would help me, and perhaps others, gain at least a bit of insight on how they may know what they may know. It is certainly possible that a chemical engineer could know more about some macro-economic issues than an ecomomics major, but not likely.

          Back to EJ's remarks above. If the you referred to me, as opposed to it being a plural you referencing all who might read the comment, then my answer is: I do not have the foggiest idea of what to answer to the paradox, or even if it is a paradox.

          It seems to me that you (EJ) were up later than I last night, and perhaps tired as you typed. I assume free marlet is an error, and you intended to state, We've Never experienced the ideal of free marKet capitalism. I point out those typos, to bring up the question of when will contributors be able to click the third icon from the left on each posting so that they can edit overlooked errors after their messages have actually been posted.

          I would like someone to responds to EJ's comments, anyone who has more knowledge than I.

          Because of my educational background, my perception of free marKet captialism is likely woefully inadequate compared to anyone grounded in economics.

          I have developed my own opinion about capitalism in America. Let me state that a bit differently, I have developed my opinion about how many financially successful people may generate wealth in this country

          We all have heard the term insider information. Perhaps we all have insider information about something, but I believe most of us have no such insider information about most things. Many years ago, in my own field of endeavor, I became aware of what some fellow practitioners did so that for a given procedure it appeared to the consumer (whoever was paying the bill) that there was more involved than was actually involved. That deception made the fees more tenable.

          A while back my wife found a 1$ Store where one could buy various magnification eye-glasses, as are increasingly required to see up close as one moves beyond 40 years of age, that were made in China and cost $1. It still befuddles me how could anything so useful could be sold for just a dollar, even an inflated one.

          At Walmart a while later, and I think we save a lot buying somethings at Walmart, I was looking at their glasses and the cheapest pair was $14, also made in China. It struck me that Walmart was making an absolute killing whenever anyone bought a pair of its glasses, and if one thinks one is saving money by shopping at Walmart then one might think $14 for the glasses was probably as good a deal as one would find anywhere. What I lack in insider information is intimant knowledge of how much Walmart paid for those glasses. Being kind, I could imagine they paid a couple or three bucks, but perhaps actually less. The point to me is that Walmart, as an example, appears to be taking advantage of consumers when they buy those glasses--that is to me a deception. Of course this is anecdotal, and I may be all wrong in my perceptions.

          One other anecdote. I have athletes foot. I recently went to the grocery store closest to where I live to buy some antifungal medication. I spent much more time than someone who is rushed would in looking at the products. I noticed an antefungal product labeled for treating the fungus that causes toenail disruption, discoloration, thickening that contained EXACTLY the same ingredient, quantity, and strength as the product that was packaged as a treatment for athletes foot. The medication marketed with the clear insinuation (by pictures on the box--though the written description of effectiveness said nothing about its use as other than to treat the fungus between the toes) that it was effective in treating established nail fungi cost $12.99, while the same medication for athletes foot cost $3.69.

          Why would anyone buy the $12.99 product? Partly ignorance and partly thinking it is a helluva lot cheaper than prescription drugs that actually have proven efficacy in treating nail fungus. I do not know as fact what is the cost for a month's supply of Lamisil pills for treating nail fungi, but I do know that it might take many months of treatment, and I would be surprised if a single pill cost only $1.00. Anyone told he/she needs oral Lamisil, as an example, for months, but who does not have the money to buy it, would be tickled pink to find a product on which the packaging insinuates it is useful against nail fungi. To pay $12.99 on one hand is almost nothing, except in our free market society producers are free ot prey upon the ignorance of consumer, and in reality the $12.99 product is a rip off if one bought it thinking it would effective against established nail fungi.

          Other simple examples along these lines are the differences one can pay for Tylenol versus the generic equivalent acetaminophen, or for Bayer Aspirin vs. the generic form of exactly the same ingredient, and the list is endless, and these are only ready examples.

          The reason I am writing this is because of the use by EJ of the word deception in his comments about the the shift from quasi-free market capitalism to totalitarian capitalisism. I am not sure of the actual definition of
          the type of capitalism we have in our country, but my opinion of it is that there is deception everywhere. The deception works to the advantage of those who probably make the most money at the expense of those who have the least, or something along that line.

          Jim
          Jim 69 y/o

          "...Texans...the lowest form of white man there is." Robert Duvall, as Al Sieber, in "Geronimo." (see "Location" for examples.)

          Dedicated to the idea that all people deserve a chance for a healthy productive life. B&M Gates Fdn.

          Good judgement comes from experience; experience comes from bad judgement. Unknown.

          Comment


          • #20
            jim- put up a bit about my background and investing history.

            i'll skip the theoretical discussion about capitalism - we live in a mixed system of private interests and public institutions and we have to deal with it.


            i can see the dollar index has major support in the 80-81 range. and i can believe that 850 or so will be real resistance for gold. so those numbers might be triggers for corrections -[ the echo "ka"?], but i doubt that the major trends will change so soon. does anyone have any thoughts on how to play the dollar and pm's right now? or is trying to "play" it too cute? jesse livermore said that the hardest thing is to be right and sit tight, so just sit tight? any strategy thoughts?

            Comment


            • #21
              EJ wrote:
              Here's a paradox for you: 70 years of suffering under Communism for millions was the result of the last failure of free marlet capitalism.

              We've ever experienced the ideal of free marlet capitalism, but I hope some day we will.

              The early stages of a shift from quasi-free market capitalism to totalitarian capitalism are indiated by 1) deception and 2) fear.

              Best think in terms of processes versus events.

              A while back, I sent EJ and email asking if he could provide me with a copy of his curriculum vitae. He didn't, which is fine. My reason for asking was curiosity about what is the educational background of people like him. It is absolutely clear to me that there are participants on this web site that know way more than I do, and though I am absolutely not in any position to question their credulity, I do out of my natural curiosity wonder what was their formal educational experience.

              Many of these topics involve economics, finance, and accounting (and perhaps other disciplines I cannot name) and I personally have no formal education in any of these areas--I am not sure I could even accurately define them off the top of my head.

              Above each posting on a forum there is an icom of a face which when clicked shows a bit about the author of the note. Most of them that I have clicked really reveal nothing about the author. I wish respectufly to suggest that participants might click the My Profile button at the top of the forum page and edit their profiles to the extent that in the Interests field they enter their educational backgrounds. It would help me, and perhaps others, gain at least a bit of insight on how they may know what they may know. It is certainly possible that a chemical engineer could know more about some macro-economic issues than an ecomomics major, but not likely.

              Back to EJ's remarks above. If the you referred to me, as opposed to it being a plural you referencing all who might read the comment, then my answer is: I do not have the foggiest idea of what to answer to the paradox, or even if it is a paradox.

              It seems to me that you (EJ) were up later than I last night, and perhaps tired as you typed. I assume free marlet is an error, and you intended to state, We've Never experienced the ideal of free marKet capitalism. I point out those typos, to bring up the question of when will contributors be able to click the third icon from the left on each posting so that they can edit overlooked errors after their messages have actually been posted.

              I would like someone to responds to EJ's comments, anyone who has more knowledge than I.

              Because of my educational background, my perception of free marKet captialism is likely woefully inadequate compared to anyone grounded in economics.

              I have developed my own opinion about capitalism in America. Let me state that a bit differently, I have developed my opinion about how many financially successful people may generate wealth in this country

              We all have heard the term insider information. Perhaps we all have insider information about something, but I believe most of us have no such insider information about most things. Many years ago, in my own field of endeavor, I became aware of what some fellow practitioners did so that for a given procedure it appeared to the consumer (whoever was paying the bill) that there was more involved than was actually involved. That deception made the fees more tenable.

              A while back my wife found a 1$ Store where one could buy various magnification eye-glasses, as are increasingly required to see up close as one moves beyond 40 years of age, that were made in China and cost $1. It still befuddles me how could anything so useful could be sold for just a dollar, even an inflated one.

              At Walmart a while later, and I think we save a lot buying somethings at Walmart, I was looking at their glasses and the cheapest pair was $14, also made in China. It struck me that Walmart was making an absolute killing whenever anyone bought a pair of its glasses, and if one thinks one is saving money by shopping at Walmart then one might think $14 for the glasses was probably as good a deal as one would find anywhere. What I lack in insider information is intimant knowledge of how much Walmart paid for those glasses. Being kind, I could imagine they paid a couple or three bucks, but perhaps actually less. The point to me is that Walmart, as an example, appears to be taking advantage of consumers when they buy those glasses--that is to me a deception. Of course this is anecdotal, and I may be all wrong in my perceptions.

              One other anecdote. I have athletes foot. I recently went to the grocery store closest to where I live to buy some antifungal medication. I spent much more time than someone who is rushed would in looking at the products. I noticed an antefungal product labeled for treating the fungus that causes toenail disruption, discoloration, thickening that contained EXACTLY the same ingredient, quantity, and strength as the product that was packaged as a treatment for athletes foot. The medication marketed with the clear insinuation (by pictures on the box--though the written description of effectiveness said nothing about its use as other than to treat the fungus between the toes) that it was effective in treating established nail fungi cost $12.99, while the same medication for athletes foot cost $3.69.

              Why would anyone buy the $12.99 product? Partly ignorance and partly thinking it is a helluva lot cheaper than prescription drugs that actually have proven efficacy in treating nail fungus. I do not know as fact what is the cost for a month's supply of Lamisil pills for treating nail fungi, but I do know that it might take many months of treatment, and I would be surprised if a single pill cost only $1.00. Anyone told he/she needs oral Lamisil, as an example, for months, but who does not have the money to buy it, would be tickled pink to find a product on which the packaging insinuates it is useful against nail fungi. To pay $12.99 on one hand is almost nothing, except in our free market society producers are free ot prey upon the ignorance of consumer, and in reality the $12.99 product is a rip off if one bought it thinking it would effective against established nail fungi.

              Other simple examples along these lines are the differences one can pay for Tylenol versus the generic equivalent acetaminophen, or for Bayer Aspirin vs. the generic form of exactly the same ingredient, and the list is endless, and these are only ready examples.

              The reason I am writing this is because of the use by EJ of the word deception in his comments about the the shift from quasi-free market capitalism to totalitarian capitalisism. I am not sure of the actual definition of
              the type of capitalism we have in our country, but my opinion of it is that there is deception everywhere. The deception works to the advantage of those who probably make the most money at the expense of those who have the least, or something along that line.

              Jim
              Jim,

              I continue to be impressed by the thoughtfulness of your comments, as well as of those of others here.

              Generally, communications on forums like these are informal. When hammering out notes on a forum, spelling, punctuation and grammatical errors are par for the course, as long as you get your idea across. If you take the time to perfect the spelling, punctuation and grammar on every post, you you're not going to have time to post much. That's the trade-off.

              Briefly, since you asked, my background is as follows. I studied economics in college, but did not major in it or get my degree in that subject. I got a specialized Bachelor of Science degree from University of Massachusetts, Amherst in a special program that combined economics, journalism, business and natural resource studies. The intent was to train to be a science writer. When I left college in the depths of the Volcker induced recession in 1981, there were no jobs for science writers. I wound up in the high tech business where I started as a technical writer for Stratus Computer, documenting the operating system. Twenty years in the industry brought me through product management and sales at several companies, two of which went public. i spend a few years in venture capital and was CEO of two VC backed companies.

              You can decide for yourself whether this background represents relevant credentials for running a site like this. I suspect no matter what my credentials, I'll be judged by my track record.

              On a far broader historical scale than covered on the site, I'll mention this with respect to your observations about the dissonance between what you hear and what you see.

              Capitalism promises wealth for everyone through fair participation in production and access to capital, but capitalist societies tend to eventually devolve into systems that produce unequal distribution of wealth as a side effect of social institutions that develop to promote wealth for the benefit of a minority. Communism promises an equal distribution wealth but instead delivers equal distribution of poverty. For hundreds of years, society has cycled between the excesses and eventual failures of the two systems under various names. We are in my opinion entering the tail end of the latest cycle of concentration of wealth and privilege. The concentration is not as extreme as during the period that ended in the 1930s, but is extreme enough to potentially lead during a crisis to political "solutions" that have in the past been counter-productive for society as a whole, a cure far worse than the disease.

              Comment


              • #22
                Jk:

                I was correct, there are a lot of people who know way more than I either based on formal education or from the school of hard knocks.

                I try to be simple and look at just a few indicators and invest in just a few things in order to try to keep track of them.

                Based on the last news posting on the home page, Monday and for sometime after that might be turbulent for the dollar, will be interesting to see. I try to use RSI for hints where things may be going. I can only access a 3-year chart on USD index, and the $ looks to be headed for retest of late '04 low, but I do not remember as much concern back then as there is now-- it might have been similar. Looking at RSI and MACD suggests USD is still going down for a while. I am sitting sitting tight, as usual whether market up or down, I am nervous.

                Using same indicators, the MACD on gold looks scary to me and there might be a hint of non-conformation in RSI from the peak gold reached in late '05, but not enough to make me sell right now.

                Perhaps doing what Livermore suggested is right.

                Jim
                Jim 69 y/o

                "...Texans...the lowest form of white man there is." Robert Duvall, as Al Sieber, in "Geronimo." (see "Location" for examples.)

                Dedicated to the idea that all people deserve a chance for a healthy productive life. B&M Gates Fdn.

                Good judgement comes from experience; experience comes from bad judgement. Unknown.

                Comment


                • #23
                  Well, it's Sunday afternoon on Mother's Day and everyone is here talking about markets. Guess it's the knife-edge that we currently all sit on. I'm personally gearing up for the Tokyo Forex opening.

                  Why are there gaps in the dates on EJ's revised Ka-Poom chart? The dates appear to not be in equal increments ... and the year 2010 is missing all together... etc.

                  ??

                  Comment


                  • #24
                    Well, it's Sunday afternoon on Mother's Day and everyone is here talking about markets. Guess it's the knife-edge that we currently all sit on. I'm personally gearing up for the Tokyo Forex opening.

                    Why are there gaps in the dates on EJ's revised Ka-Poom chart? The dates appear to not be in equal increments ... and the year 2010 is missing all together... etc.

                    ??
                    Charles,
                    I need to write a whole separate piece that explains the new Ka-Poom. But, in short:
                    - Every change in the Discount rate since 1970 is shown vs in the old model where the average discount rate was annualized starting in 1960.
                    - Some years, there were many changes. Other years, none at all. For example, there were nine discount rate changes in 1980, six in 1981, seven in 1982 and none in 1983.
                    - Years when no discount rate changes occurred are shown as a single entry, as in 1983 when the discount rate was for the entire year 9%, the same as the rate at the end of 1982.
                    - Inflation for each discount rate period is the average CPI rate
                    - This means that the chart is not to be read as a linear time sequence
                    - The 2010 data are in the chart but you can't read them due to the peculiar way Excel compresses the dates in the Y axis. For example, just as the dates of all nine discount rate changes that occurred in 1983 are not displayed, the two guestimated discount changes in 2010 are not displayed, but the data are in the discount line

                    The point is that from studying the relationships between the discount rate and inflation since 1960, it became clear to me that a single linear inflationary event is unlikely. More likely, we will see an initial panic, followed by a recovery induced by policy efforts to contain it, followed by a deeper and more prolonged decline as imbalances unwind. The guys over at Bridgewater put it well yesterday:

                    In an issue titled "Bernanke's Test begins," Bridgewater wrote: "Today's imbalances are much larger and global in scale. They have been sustained for a longer time because China, and many other countries, are not defending a declining currency with shrinking reserves. Instead, they are resisting rising currencies with increasing reserves, a much more sustainable action."

                    The result, according to Bridgewater: "bigger imbalances that have taken longer to build, have been sewn deeper into the economic fabric, and will take much longer to unwind, with dramatically larger financial consequences."

                    http://tinyurl.com/hkepe

                    I agree... next week is shaping up to be interesting.

                    Comment


                    • #25

                      EJ wrote:

                      Generally, communications on forums like these are informal. When hammering out notes on a forum, spelling, punctuation and grammatical errors are par for the course, as long as you get your idea across. If you take the time to perfect the spelling, punctuation and grammar on every post, you you're not going to have time to post much. That's the trade-off.
                      EJ: I wasn't picking on your errors nor anyone's. It will (would) be nice if one could correct one's errors if they were to serve to confuse--I hope that capability is soon reestablished.


                      You can decide for yourself whether this background represents relevant credentials for running a site like this. I suspect no matter what my credentials, I'll be judged by my track record.
                      Thank you for saying a few things about yourself. That answered my wonderment. My interest about people who write things is not so much whether or not they may be right or wrong, but moreso, on what basis they might have for what they are saying. In my book, when talking about finances and the markets, there is some greater chance that writers are credible when they aren't selling products. Your site has some greater chance toward credibility based on its not be related to selling anything.

                      Even if your Ka-Boom Theory fails miserably, I will think no less of you or your site. It is a great idea and I expect is time and money consuming for you.

                      I am devoid of real knowledge that enables me to hypothesize what the future of markets, dollars, and interest rates may be, and your site and mostly your thinking on these issues has given me a lot more to consider, and I feel good about having found the site.


                      EJ wrote:

                      Capitalism promises wealth for everyone through fair participation in production and access to capital, but capitalist societies tend to eventually devolve into systems that produce unequal distribution of wealth as a side effect of social institutions that develop to promote wealth for the benefit of a minority.
                      Your quote above at first confused me, but I believe you are saying the minority turns out to be the ultra wealthy, and then what might be the social institutions?

                      I do not think of Enron, Ivan Boesky, Milkin, Kovloski, Evers at MCI and all the people Spitzer has been taking to task as social institutions. Just what are the social institutions? Jack Welch at GE and similar high ranking officers in public corporations, excepting Warren Buffet? To me all these people and things are businesses and business men.

                      America for me has been a good place to be born and in which I will probably die. If there is one thing mainly that is wrong with it, I would say the one thing is GREED, and whether I live to see it or not, I think at some point greed will be the thing that leads to the system breaking down or being broken down.

                      Communism promises an equal distribution wealth but instead delivers equal distribution of poverty. For hundreds of years, society has cycled between the excesses and eventual failures of the two systems under various names. We are in my opinion entering the tail end of the latest cycle of concentration of wealth and privilege. The concentration is not as extreme as during the period that ended in the 1930s, but is extreme enough to potentially lead during a crisis to political solutions that have in the past been counter-productive for society as a whole, a cure far worse than the disease.
                      As I see things right now there are a minority of ultra rich people in the US and at the bottom at least 48,000,000 without health insurance--to use some sort of a figure. Earlier it was 45M, and before that 40M, etc. Does anyone see anything happening to stem that rising number of poor? Despite whatever counter-productive event that may lay in the future that would erupt--like cvil rebellion, I do not think the politiicians are capable of reversing course, just as the financial course of this courtry is not going to be reversed until some external event forces a change.

                      If you asked me for the answer, I do not have one that would effect a change and even begin to reverse the course of things.

                      WE ARE DOOMED, I tell you DOOMED! I write that as sort of humorous, but it really may not have any humor in it at all.

                      Jim
                      Jim 69 y/o

                      "...Texans...the lowest form of white man there is." Robert Duvall, as Al Sieber, in "Geronimo." (see "Location" for examples.)

                      Dedicated to the idea that all people deserve a chance for a healthy productive life. B&M Gates Fdn.

                      Good judgement comes from experience; experience comes from bad judgement. Unknown.

                      Comment


                      • #26
                        OK EJ, I understand the periodicity of the time scale now

                        I notice that you and others are looking at inverse stock funds. I used the Rydex Tempest (RYTPX) for the 2000 - 2002 bear but rode it too long after the bottom, They're a little tricky due to leverage and compounding... not to mention fees and slippage. It didn't take much of a retracement in the S&P and most of my gain had disappeared.

                        I had a few emails with Chris Taffe who runs the fund regarding this phenomenon and he said:

                        "It is due to the fact of compounding. The fund's objective is to match the
                        performance on a daily basis. When you track it over a period longer than a day you have to account for compounding. Our fund rebalances on a daily basis and the movements in the market can either work for or against the investment. I can give you a deeper explanation if you want to call me and discuss."

                        Christopher Taffe, CFS
                        Rydex Investments

                        So, caution is advised. You do have to exit in a timely manner - it's not a buy and hold. Since the fund rebalances on a daily basis it's quite thrilling when it's going your way but just the opposite when it turns.

                        Regarding the title of this thread "poom happening?" :

                        Aren't we nearing the end of the first poom and about to enter the "mini-ka" before the actual "flight from the dollar" poom? I see you don't have the "mini-ka" predicted until 2nd quarter '08.

                        What has happened in oil, copper, gold, housing, equities etc. seems to indicate that we are closer to the end of the first poom rather than just entering it. Interest rates are rising, housing inventory is skyrocketing as sales transactions fall, stocks appear to be topping, metals are going parabolic. Isn't there a turn here in our near future rather than more of the same of until 2008? If you are right and this poom has 2 more years to run then we have one helluva pop left in gold before the mini-ka.


                        CM

                        Comment


                        • #27
                          is the definition of the mini-ka a severe correction in commodities? if so, anyone have any ideas about how/whether to try to "play" it? or is eveyone just planning to hang on?

                          Comment


                          • #28
                            The explosion [Poom] is the move up in interest rates and inflation. If EJ's presmise is the inflation rate is as reported by whichever agency reports it, then now there would be inflation that is not so bad, EJ has it marked on the latest Ka-Poom graph with a red arror. Inflation on the graph is less than 5%. He theorizes it could go to 10-15%. The discount rate is now 5%, he theorizes a push to 9%.

                            So if his prognostications were to turn out correct, then we have a while to ride the interest rates up, gold, and commodities up, and nobody ever mentions the stock indices, but I think they will be going down.

                            I follow the the Asia markets by periocially looking at the online wsj Markets Data Bank. It is better, i.e. is updated closer to real time, than anything else I have found. It requires a subscription. Anybody have a better site to watch Asian markets at night?

                            Right now HK, NIK, Indonesia, S. Korea, Singapore are all down > 1%, on that same site, it doesn't appear that the currencies are being updated for some reason.

                            Jim
                            Jim 69 y/o

                            "...Texans...the lowest form of white man there is." Robert Duvall, as Al Sieber, in "Geronimo." (see "Location" for examples.)

                            Dedicated to the idea that all people deserve a chance for a healthy productive life. B&M Gates Fdn.

                            Good judgement comes from experience; experience comes from bad judgement. Unknown.

                            Comment


                            • #29
                              OK EJ, I understand the periodicity of the time scale now

                              I notice that you and others are looking at inverse stock funds. I used the Rydex Tempest (RYTPX) for the 2000 - 2002 bear but rode it too long after the bottom, They're a little tricky due to leverage and compounding... not to mention fees and slippage. It didn't take much of a retracement in the S&P and most of my gain had disappeared.
                              Charles, for a while I have used the Profunds of the ultra type--all of which move 200% of the assoicatied indices. I also keep track of the percentage changes of whichever Profund I am in compared to the underlying index, and all the ones based on the SPC, NDX and RUT whether the bet is the markets will rise or fall move right around the 200% mark. Sure they are dangerous if you are on the wrong side of the market, but I do not seem to have been stung by any factors that I can detect such as leverage and compounding errors.

                              I trade these fund through Schwab and up until a few months ago, I was whacked with hefty fees when I sold, but now that has disappeared. I could buy one tomorrow and sell it Tuesday and there is NO fee.

                              Jim
                              Jim 69 y/o

                              "...Texans...the lowest form of white man there is." Robert Duvall, as Al Sieber, in "Geronimo." (see "Location" for examples.)

                              Dedicated to the idea that all people deserve a chance for a healthy productive life. B&M Gates Fdn.

                              Good judgement comes from experience; experience comes from bad judgement. Unknown.

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                              • #30
                                jim- i stopped trading mutual funds at schwab because of their transaction fees and short-term trading penalty fees up to 180 days post purchase. have they abolished these or did you complain and get a deal? [i now do all my mutual funds through tdwaterhouse, now tdameritrade.]

                                equity indexes from around the world are free at:
                                http://quote.yahoo.com/m2?u

                                futures, incl currencies are at:
                                http://www2.barchart.com/mktcom.asp
                                or
                                globex quotes at
                                http://www.cme.com/trading/dta/del/globex.html

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