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Phirang's next trade: long TLT

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  • Phirang's next trade: long TLT

    Tomorrow, assuming things go as I expect they will (badly), I will build a long TLT position. I'm targeting yield of around 2.7% to take profits, with max greed at 2.6%.

  • #2
    Re: Phirang's next trade: long TLT

    So are you expecting the market to have a big down day tomorrow? That means the money will be driven to safe haven bonds and gold?

    Comment


    • #3
      Re: Phirang's next trade: long TLT

      I'm expecting some serious pain in the S&P, but I'm going to wait till open to decide whether or not to execute. Overnight action and pre-market schenannigans may delay my attack...

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      • #4
        Re: Phirang's next trade: long TLT

        I hope your serious pain comes. Do you have any particular reason for the serious pain? Very overbought with some major bad news coming?

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        • #5
          Re: Phirang's next trade: long TLT

          Catalysts: largest .gov finance bubble in the world to refinance.

          Btw, went long TLT June 103 calls this morning. Wish me luck, gents.

          Comment


          • #6
            Re: Phirang's next trade: long TLT

            A bold call and IMO correct. I am unsure about the argument on Treasuries, but I am more on board with the argument for the USD resisting decay here contrary to a large number of prognosticators. I think it will surprisingly resist all the entirely plausible arguments for decay for another couple of years even, and it should be hard for treasuries to collapse without the USD collapsing with them. We'll see. What I'm reading entirely supports Phirang's call for another stiff market correction here. But I don't read it as the demise of a (largish) bull run up ahead - spanning the next 3-5 years. These first steps out of the 60 year cycle low (1948) will be met with some vicious declines as well. Meanwhile we can't fault Phirang for not putting his money right on the table where his views are.

            We'll see the merit of the broader market thesis clearly enough in 18 months time.

            Comment


            • #7
              Re: Phirang's next trade: long TLT

              Originally posted by Lukester View Post
              A bold call and IMO correct. I am unsure about the argument on Treasuries, but I am more on board with the argument for the USD resisting decay here contrary to a large number of prognosticators. I think it will surprisingly resist all the entirely plausible arguments for decay for another couple of years even, and it should be hard for treasuries to collapse without the USD collapsing with them.
              Why not collapsing Treasuries with rising $USD? It depends on CBs comparative jawboning abilities. At certain point some CBs will look more like "inflation fighters" than others, so respective bonds will move unpredictably up/down. Can some money move out of other currencies and out of Tbonds into Tnotes and Tbills?

              What if all the long bonds collapse around the world? Are we sure $US will suffer relative to other currencies?
              медведь

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              • #8
                Re: Phirang's next trade: long TLT

                Originally posted by medved View Post
                Why not collapsing Treasuries with rising $USD? It depends on CBs comparative jawboning abilities. At certain point some CBs will look more like "inflation fighters" than others, so respective bonds will move unpredictably up/down. Can some money move out of other currencies and out of Tbonds into Tnotes and Tbills?

                What if all the long bonds collapse around the world? Are we sure $US will suffer relative to other currencies?
                Net change in U.S. foreign currency holdings and short term assets indicates a sudden and unusual change.


                Ed.

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                • #9
                  Re: Phirang's next trade: long TLT

                  Originally posted by FRED View Post
                  Net change in U.S. foreign currency holdings and short term assets indicates a sudden and unusual change.


                  Oh my god, your posts are like the NPR puzzler from the nytimes guy, lately.

                  ???????????

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Re: Phirang's next trade: long TLT

                    Fred - one thing at least seems clear - if the USD does not stage a collapse soonish, subsequent to what this chart indicates, then there is a component in the logical conclusion this chart suggests which will have been proved askew.

                    We can choose to set a calendar date in the future (time limit), within which the USD exchange rate must reflect a significant part of this earthquake in the foreign currency holdings.

                    Beyond that date, we would then concede that for the short term at least (couple or three years), the "logical conclusions" the chart points to become candidates for reexamination?

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                    • #11
                      Re: Phirang's next trade: long TLT

                      Don't fade the FDI.

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                      • #12
                        Re: Phirang's next trade: long TLT

                        Originally posted by FRED View Post
                        Net change in U.S. foreign currency holdings and short term assets indicates a sudden and unusual change.


                        Sorry if it's obvious to others, but what exactly is this chart measuring? To have negative foreign currency holdings, does that mean debt denominated in foreign currencies? Please enlighten me. Thanks.

                        Jimmy

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                        • #13
                          Re: Phirang's next trade: long TLT

                          Added to my TLT calls this morning on the dip. I fear monday, we'll be conveying Bulls to the glue factory...

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                          • #14
                            Re: Phirang's next trade: long TLT

                            I was right till the pump began again.

                            Oh, well, CMBX looks flushed and the fundamentals, I THINK, are still TLT-bullish. Added again today on tankage.

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Re: Phirang's next trade: long TLT

                              Originally posted by jimmygu3 View Post
                              Sorry if it's obvious to others, but what exactly is this chart measuring? To have negative foreign currency holdings, does that mean debt denominated in foreign currencies? Please enlighten me. Thanks.

                              Jimmy
                              have no idea what this chart means. anyone?

                              Comment

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