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Talk round the camp fire:- China will "Invite"...

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  • #16
    Re: Talk round the camp fire:- China will "Invite"...

    Originally posted by GRG55 View Post
    Just one example admittedly, but once the USA finally declares victory and abandons Iraq, does that country find a way to govern itself constructively, or does it decend once again into civil war?

    If you were a betting man...
    Why would the US ever voluntarily leave Iraq? They still haven't left South Korea or Japan, and there's a lot more at stake in Iraq.

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    • #17
      Re: Talk round the camp fire:- China will "Invite"...

      Originally posted by GRG55 View Post
      I wanna know who's mug is on the highest denomination of the "new cash". Mao? Lenin? Stalin? Deng Xiaoping, Peter Schiff...who???

      Inquiring minds want to know...
      Yao Ming of course. It has to be someone that most Americans can pick out of a lineup.
      Last edited by Slimprofits; 03-31-09, 08:59 PM.

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      • #18
        Re: Talk round the camp fire:- China will "Invite"...

        Originally posted by Glenn Black View Post
        To my knowledge, there has never been a system that fully failed and disappeared before there is a different system ready to replace it (eg. warlords in Somalia to replace prior government).

        A vacuum (ie. no system whatsoever) never occurs.

        Does anybody have an example to contradict this theory & experience?
        From my studies, what usually happens is, a system collapses, usually creating a vacuum that's filled pretty quick BUT the first replacement system usually does not last.

        The Tsar was thrown out, Alexander somebody set up a provisional government that freed many bolsheviks from jail, then the Bolsheviks overthrew the provisional. then Stalin hijacked that to a much worse level (various convolutions with the military, the Japan war and other Russian nobles complicate the story, but that's the nutshell)

        Similar stuff has happened all the time. The revolution gets hijacked by folks much worse than the instigators. French Revolution, Cuba, Angola, and many others.


        There's a similar effect in business - Clayton Christensen calls it "the Innovator's dilemma". The originators of an innovation are not usually the ones who make the most from it.

        AT&T did not make a lot off the transistor - others made much more

        the photolithographed integrated circuit was invented at Texas Intruments, but they did not make the most money off it.

        Xerox did not make the most from mouse/windows. Neither did Apple.

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        • #19
          Re: Talk round the camp fire:- China will "Invite"...

          Originally posted by GRG55 View Post
          TPC: We are witnessing the dying of the FIRE economy, not the rebirth of a new one.
          As a proud member of the Tin Foil Hat Club, I am more inclined to think that while the FIRE economy in its current form is dying, the underlying powers that have dominated world finance for the last few centuries will die a more difficult death, at least a few decades, if not a century or two, into the future. I'm guessing they are doing their best to make good use of the current panic to extend their grip further over human civilization.

          It won't surprise me all that much if I'm wrong, however.
          Most folks are good; a few aren't.

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          • #20
            Re: Talk round the camp fire:- China will "Invite"...

            Originally posted by Sharky View Post
            Why would the US ever voluntarily leave Iraq? They still haven't left South Korea or Japan, and there's a lot more at stake in Iraq.
            It has nothing to do with what is at stake in Iraq, and everything to do with what is at stake back home.

            I do not believe there are any body bags coming home from Korea or Japan. I do not believe that President Obama has made any promises about troop withdrawals from Korea or Japan. Iraq is a potentially serious political liability for the new President - regardless of what he does. Japan and South Korea are not.

            That's the difference.

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            • #21
              Re: Talk round the camp fire:- China will "Invite"...

              Originally posted by GRG55 View Post
              It has nothing to do with what is at stake in Iraq, and everything to do with what is at stake back home.
              When I said there was more at stake, I meant from the (perceived) perspective of US citizens too. In particular, control over Iraqi oil fields and in-theater monitoring and influence over other Mideast oil fields in Saudi, Kuwait, etc.

              Originally posted by GRG55 View Post
              I do not believe there are any body bags coming home from Korea or Japan. I do not believe that President Obama has made any promises about troop withdrawals from Korea or Japan. Iraq is a potentially serious political liability for the new President - regardless of what he does. Japan and South Korea are not.
              Political liability? Yes, certainly. But the sword cuts two ways: loss of control over the Mideast oil fields would be an even more serious problem.

              Promises about troop removal? Sure, but since when are promises a reliable indicator of what a politician will do? A number of timetable-related promises have already been broken by Obama. Besides, who knows what deals have been made with others in the Mideast that the US will stay.

              Keep in mind that I'm saying this from the perspective of someone who thinks the US should leave Iraq. I just don't see how it's ever going to happen voluntarily -- unless the military goes bankrupt of course. That could do it. But don't crumbling empires have a history of supporting their military adventures until the bitter end?

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              • #22
                Re: Talk round the camp fire:- China will "Invite"...

                Originally posted by Mega View Post
                China will "invite" the US to borrow from now on using its new $ replacement cash. Russia DEMANDS Gold for at lest part of it & to bring them & other on board China has agreed.

                The HK$ will be pegged to it as will other formerly $ pegged moneys.
                Mike
                Although what you are saying is speculative at this time, many parts of it do have a high probability of becoming true.

                I can see the HDK being re-pegged to the SDR (also uses ISO call XDR) at least. The other things may or may not happen in the way you suggest.

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                • #23
                  Re: Talk round the camp fire:- China will "Invite"...

                  Originally posted by FRED View Post
                  Let's not unlearn what we already know, shall we?

                  There will be no global currency.

                  These are the rantings of ignoramuses like Soros and conspiracy theorists.

                  Forget it. Think: same currencies but pegged to something in common.
                  You are also equally right.

                  Even if the SDR "XDR" is bumped up to being a global currency, that will not weaken or diminish the well run fiat currencies (or the fiat currencies that have benchmark status).

                  In any case new FOREX accounting regimes will evolve to fit the new conditions ... and the USD, UKP and EUR will not have the preferential status they once held.

                  That said, as of mid-2008, Gold / Silver / Platinum / Palladium are back again as universal currencies.

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                  • #24
                    Re: Talk round the camp fire:- China will "Invite"...

                    Originally posted by FRED View Post
                    Let's not unlearn what we already know, shall we?

                    There will be no global currency.

                    These are the rantings of ignoramuses like Soros and conspiracy theorists.

                    Forget it. Think: same currencies but pegged to something in common.
                    So far China still likes that US Dollar peg...
                    China's Wen gives no ground on calls for yuan rise

                    BEIJING
                    Sat Mar 13, 2010 11:15pm EST

                    (Reuters) - Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao said on Sunday that external calls for yuan appreciation were unhelpful and even a form of trade protectionism, vowing that Beijing would stick to its own course for currency reform.

                    Blending his trademark folksy tone with assertiveness born of leading the world's fastest-growing economy, Wen gave no ground on the controversial currency policy even as China hurtles toward a potentially serious clash with the United States.

                    "We oppose the practice of mutual recriminations. External pressure is not helpful for yuan exchange rate reform,"...

                    ...Without directly mentioning the United States, Wen made clear that Beijing was in no mood to submit to any demands from Washington and might even be girding for a fight.

                    "I can understand some countries' desire to raise exports, but what I do not understand is depreciating one's own currency and attempting to pressure others to appreciate, for the purpose of increasing exports. In my view, that is protectionism," he said...




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                    • #25
                      Re: Talk round the camp fire:- China will "Invite"...

                      China is in very a vulnerable position.

                      Technically speaking, the country is still in civil war, Taiwan versus the PRC. Parts of the PRC are also threatening to break away, Xinjiang, Tibet.

                      Revaluing the yuan at this point is still too risky.



                      Originally posted by GRG55 View Post
                      So far China still likes that US Dollar peg...
                      China's Wen gives no ground on calls for yuan rise

                      BEIJING
                      Sat Mar 13, 2010 11:15pm EST

                      (Reuters) - Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao said on Sunday that external calls for yuan appreciation were unhelpful and even a form of trade protectionism, vowing that Beijing would stick to its own course for currency reform.

                      Blending his trademark folksy tone with assertiveness born of leading the world's fastest-growing economy, Wen gave no ground on the controversial currency policy even as China hurtles toward a potentially serious clash with the United States.

                      "We oppose the practice of mutual recriminations. External pressure is not helpful for yuan exchange rate reform,"...

                      ...Without directly mentioning the United States, Wen made clear that Beijing was in no mood to submit to any demands from Washington and might even be girding for a fight.

                      "I can understand some countries' desire to raise exports, but what I do not understand is depreciating one's own currency and attempting to pressure others to appreciate, for the purpose of increasing exports. In my view, that is protectionism," he said...




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                      • #26
                        Re: Talk round the camp fire:- China will "Invite"...

                        Originally posted by touchring View Post
                        China is in very a vulnerable position.

                        Technically speaking, the country is still in civil war, Taiwan versus the PRC. Parts of the PRC are also threatening to break away, Xinjiang, Tibet.

                        Revaluing the yuan at this point is still too risky.
                        Here's the Bloomberg article on the same topic...
                        Wen Rebuffs Yuan Calls, Says He's ‘Worried’ About Dollar (Update1)

                        March 14 (Bloomberg) -- Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao rebuffed calls for the yuan to appreciate and sought assurances that the U.S. will protect the value of China’s dollar assets.

                        “I don’t think the yuan is undervalued,” Wen said at a press conference in Beijing marking the end of China’s annual parliamentary meetings. Dollar volatility is a “big” concern and “I’m still worried” about China’s U.S. currency holdings, he said.

                        Wen urged America to “take concrete steps to reassure investors” about the safety of dollar assets, repeating concerns that he expressed a year ago...

                        ...Wen’s comments come as lawmakers in the U.S. call for retaliatory trade measures to compel appreciation. On March 11, President Barack Obama urged the nation to move toward a more “market-oriented exchange rate.” Economist Paul Krugman said March 12 that global growth would be about 1.5 percentage points higher if China stopped restraining the value of its currency and running trade surpluses.

                        “This is a sign that there will be no one-off revaluation in coming months,” said Lu Ting, an economist at Bank of America-Merrill Lynch in Hong Kong. “China’s top policymakers do have their own currency reform plans but coercion from other countries will do disservice to this cause.”...

                        ...He echoed central bank Governor Zhou Xiaochuan in saying that China needs to carefully time any exit from anti-crisis policies, which have included pegging the yuan to the dollar since July 2008.

                        Sovereign-debt problems and high unemployment around the world could send the global economy into a second, or “double dip” downturn, the premier said. In China, inflation, combined with wide income gaps and official corruption, could lead to social instability “and even affect the government’s hold on power.”

                        Wen reiterated that the nation will keep the yuan “basically stable” and maintain a moderately loose monetary policy and a proactive fiscal stance to consolidate an economic recovery, adding that it’s “essential” for the timing of any change to be appropriate...

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