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  • A new look at Gold

    Here is a informative article , compliments of Gold Eagle , lots o' charts

    http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials...ian121706.html
    I one day will run with the big dogs in the world currency markets, and stick it to the man

  • #2
    Re: A new look at Gold

    Any comment from the crowd on where Gold is headed ? More tied to the mighty petro/bonar or seeing its strength held by petro dollars diverisfying out of USD from non Opec oil producing countries ???? We maintained the 600$ price support through our biggest drop in crude in 19 months ????
    I one day will run with the big dogs in the world currency markets, and stick it to the man

    Comment


    • #3
      Re: A new look at Gold

      Originally posted by spunky
      Here is a informative article , compliments of Gold Eagle , lots o' charts

      http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials...ian121706.html
      That article is too busy for my brain. If you found it informative then take from it what you will.

      Here are tWo simpler looks at gold and silver by Clive Maund--for whom I cannot personally vouch. I read them yesterday and concluded gold and silver are going to go up and down for a while.

      http://www.safehaven.com/article-6699.htm
      http://www.safehaven.com/article-6698.htm

      Maund puts up articles on gold and silver about every two weeks, though he has posted more frequently in the past week.

      I personally think gold is going to go more down than up for a while. Again referring to Ka-Poom Theory, precious metals are expected to trend downward during the "Ka" as I understand things.
      Last edited by Jim Nickerson; 01-15-07, 07:20 PM.
      Jim 69 y/o

      "...Texans...the lowest form of white man there is." Robert Duvall, as Al Sieber, in "Geronimo." (see "Location" for examples.)

      Dedicated to the idea that all people deserve a chance for a healthy productive life. B&M Gates Fdn.

      Good judgement comes from experience; experience comes from bad judgement. Unknown.

      Comment


      • #4
        Re: A new look at Gold

        Originally posted by Jim Nickerson
        I personally think gold is going to go more down than up for a while. Again referring to Ka-Poom Theory, precious metals are expected to trend downward during the "Ka" as I understand things.
        Very hard to call the near term. Most of these writers who purport to don't actually succeed very well.

        Accordingly, it's hard to argue with your outlook. We have been in a minor deflation for about the past nine months, and if it continues, then there is every reason to expect a weak zig-zagging pattern.

        Longer term is easier to call. Gold is quite cheap in here on a historical basis, particularly given that we're in a long-term, secular, deflationary cycle. As in the 1970's (and as in 2001-2005), it seems highly likely the Fed will respond with monetary inflation, which would translate into currency devaluation and prices that decline not in dollar terms, but in gold terms. That is, gold would rise dramatically in dollar terms.

        Prices well into the quadruple digits within five to ten years are highly likely.
        Last edited by Finster; 01-15-07, 06:30 PM.
        Finster
        ...

        Comment


        • #5
          Re: A new look at Gold

          Originally posted by Finster
          Very hard to call the near term. Most of these writers who purport to don't actually succeed very well.
          It appears to me most of the individuals like Maund and perhaps the fellow to which Spunky referenced at the start are making their interpretation of what the charts are showing them. Maund I believe within the past 7-10 days "saw" a big drop in gold with it having moved beneath a head and shoulders top, then came back with an "emergency" call on 1/11 that gold (he charted the HUI) was headed back up--which it did Friday and less notably for several days before.

          Originally posted by Finster
          Accordingly, it's hard to argue with your outlook. We have been in a minor deflation for about the past nine months, and if it continues, then there is every reason to expect a weak zig-zagging pattern.

          Longer term is easier to call. Gold is quite cheap in here on a historical basis, particularly given that we're in a long-term, secular, deflationary cycle. As in the 1970's (and as in 2001-2005), it seems highly likely the Fed will respond with monetary inflation, which would translate into currency devaluation and prices that decline not in dollar terms, but in gold terms. That is, gold would rise dramatically in dollar terms.

          Prices well into the quadruple digits within five to ten years are highly likely.
          Now Spunky, if you want a truly generalized call and perhaps very correct call for gold's movement over the next 5-10 years, then do not dismiss what Finster has put forth--a "quadruple digits" up move. Now that might be 1000 or 9999, or 37% to almost 1600% UP. I guess if one is aiming to retire to the beaches, the latter would be that one's hope.

          p.s. Welcome back, Finster, I've missed you.
          Jim 69 y/o

          "...Texans...the lowest form of white man there is." Robert Duvall, as Al Sieber, in "Geronimo." (see "Location" for examples.)

          Dedicated to the idea that all people deserve a chance for a healthy productive life. B&M Gates Fdn.

          Good judgement comes from experience; experience comes from bad judgement. Unknown.

          Comment


          • #6
            Re: A new look at Gold

            Originally posted by Finster
            Longer term is easier to call. Gold is quite cheap in here on a historical basis, particularly given that we're in a long-term, secular, deflationary cycle.
            Finster, fortunately for you some things are easy--as "longer term is easier.." I personally don't see anything easy about investing, in fact based on what little more I may learn from time to time it gets harder and certainly a lot more worrisome.

            Since the 2000 top in equity markets and the deciline, from time to time I have heard some supposed pundits state that the equity markets are now in a "secular bear market." I don't recall hearing or reading them state that the markets were since 2000 in a "long-term secular" bear market. Further I have never understood on what bases those pundits have made such an assessment. Unless it is a fact that secular bear moves follow secular bull moves, and the equity markets move from the 70's or early 80's to 2000 qualified as a secular bull market, thus we must now be in a secular bear market. Surely there must be more to it than that.

            Questions.

            1. What is the difference in a "long-term secular" move of any sort and just a "secular move"?

            2. You've probably stated it somewhere before, and I read it and have forgotten, but what things embolden or enable you to conclude that we, I presume the US, are now is a secular deflationary cycle? Will you please expound on your position?

            3. When was the last "short-term secular" move, and what was it in?
            Jim 69 y/o

            "...Texans...the lowest form of white man there is." Robert Duvall, as Al Sieber, in "Geronimo." (see "Location" for examples.)

            Dedicated to the idea that all people deserve a chance for a healthy productive life. B&M Gates Fdn.

            Good judgement comes from experience; experience comes from bad judgement. Unknown.

            Comment


            • #7
              Re: A new look at Gold

              Gary Dorsch is my favorite author for gold forecasting. His articles come and go pretty quickly on the Gold eagle site.

              Your just going to see this weak zigzag pattern till we get a major geo political , weather or other event. My price point on Au wont be met unless we see some really rosey economic news this spring, early summer. Silver, possibly yes, since we see a seasonal flucuation however getting a grasp on actual production and above ground reserves is ni impossible.
              I one day will run with the big dogs in the world currency markets, and stick it to the man

              Comment


              • #8
                Re: A new look at Gold

                Originally posted by Jim Nickerson
                1. What is the difference in a "long-term secular" move of any sort and just a "secular move"?
                None, really. I just put in the "long-term" modifier so you wouldn't have to ask me what "secular" means ... ;-)

                Originally posted by Jim Nickerson
                2. You've probably stated it somewhere before, and I read it and have forgotten, but what things embolden or enable you to conclude that we, I presume the US, are now is a secular deflationary cycle? Will you please expound on your position?
                I sure have, Jim. I just did the legwork for you and dug up where I explained it before. Bookmark it. Read it carefully. Memorize it. Word for word.

                This theme will come up again and again.

                http://www.itulip.com/forums/showthr...4811&#post4811

                http://www.itulip.com/forums/showthr...=5530#post5530

                Originally posted by Jim Nickerson
                3. When was the last "short-term secular" move, and what was it in?
                See reply to 1. above.
                Finster
                ...

                Comment


                • #9
                  Re: A new look at Gold

                  Originally posted by Finster
                  None, really. I just put in the "long-term" modifier so you wouldn't have to ask me what "secular" means ... ;-)
                  Thanks, I appreciate your saving me having to use my dictionary.



                  Originally posted by The Finster
                  I sure have, Jim. I just did the legwork for you and dug up where I explained it before. Bookmark it. Read it carefully. Memorize it. Word for word.

                  This theme will come up again and again.

                  http://www.itulip.com/forums/showthr...4811&#post4811

                  http://www.itulip.com/forums/showthr...=5530#post5530
                  Thanks again, I am going to bookmark those mothers. I might even become so familiar with them that I shall quote you at some point. I do search, but it seldom gets me what I am looking for, perhaps the problem is I don't know what I am looking for. It is a fact that iTulip is growing quite rapidly, certainly faster than I seem to be developing more memory capability. I think 5MB with 56K of RAM is about my capacity.



                  Originally posted by The Finster
                  See reply to 1. above.
                  Actually there could exist a secular move that would relative to a long period of time in fact be a short-term phenomenom. I just don't know what would represent one in the markets. I really thought you might know of one.
                  Jim 69 y/o

                  "...Texans...the lowest form of white man there is." Robert Duvall, as Al Sieber, in "Geronimo." (see "Location" for examples.)

                  Dedicated to the idea that all people deserve a chance for a healthy productive life. B&M Gates Fdn.

                  Good judgement comes from experience; experience comes from bad judgement. Unknown.

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Re: A new look at Gold

                    Originally posted by Jim Nickerson
                    Thanks, I appreciate your saving me having to use my dictionary.


                    Originally posted by Jim Nickerson
                    I do search, but it seldom gets me what I am looking for, perhaps the problem is I don't know what I am looking for. It is a fact that iTulip is growing quite rapidly, certainly faster than I seem to be developing more memory capability.
                    We commiserate. ;)

                    Originally posted by Jim Nickerson
                    Actually there could exist a secular move that would relative to a long period of time in fact be a short-term phenomenom. I just don't know what would represent one in the markets. I really thought you might know of one.
                    The term is not precisely defined as far as I know. My usage (which I think is consistent with most writers) is that a secular cycle is multi-decade in scale. For instance, the time from the prior stock price highs in the late 1960s to the top in 2000, would be a full secular cycle. This would be in contrast to a cyclical move, such as from the lows in 1974 to the lows in 1978.
                    Finster
                    ...

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Re: A new look at Gold

                      Gold and silver staying strong, yet oil dropping.:cool: All awash in a sea of liquidity and and " soft " landing for housing Te he he he
                      I one day will run with the big dogs in the world currency markets, and stick it to the man

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Re: A new look at Gold

                        When the stock market took a dive at the end of February, gold went down with it.

                        I had assumed that gold would move up if there was a significant stock market drop, because people would be looking for a safe haven for their assets.

                        Does anybody have an explanation of why gold and gold ETFs went down along with the market?


                        Thanks
                        raja
                        Boycott Big Banks Vote Out Incumbents

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Re: A new look at Gold

                          Originally posted by raja
                          When the stock market took a dive at the end of February, gold went down with it.

                          I had assumed that gold would move up if there was a significant stock market drop, because people would be looking for a safe haven for their assets.

                          Does anybody have an explanation of why gold and gold ETFs went down along with the market?


                          Thanks
                          I have heard that in a bull market gold shares move up or down with the market. Once it turns to a general cyclical bear market, the gold miners move opposite. Don't know why...

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Re: A new look at Gold

                            Here is a look at 5-year traffic rating of Kitco.com:

                            http://www.alexa.com/data/details/tr...&url=kitco.com

                            The traffic has dropped to the levels not seen since 2002! This is the most bullish view on my radar right now.
                            Last edited by idianov; 04-10-07, 03:10 AM.

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Re: A new look at Gold

                              Originally posted by raja
                              When the stock market took a dive at the end of February, gold went down with it.

                              I had assumed that gold would move up if there was a significant stock market drop, because people would be looking for a safe haven for their assets.

                              Does anybody have an explanation of why gold and gold ETFs went down along with the market?


                              Thanks
                              I heard some rumblings that it had to do with funds and hedgies selling off their PM positions to cover losses, or something to that effect. Like a reverse short-squeeze margin call type thing. Gold is moving up against the market but it's doing it in a much more subtle way that if you don't track it carefully, you miss it's appreciative value. It's not a simple "market down, gold up" type thing. (Don't know if it ever was like that just saying that it's not like that now.)

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