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  • #16
    Re: Coal

    I hope these reports offer some help to you brave souls with coal equities.
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    • #17
      Re: Coal

      Thanks, Raz!

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      • #18
        Re: Coal

        Thanks Raz !

        We are near the last low in coal price.
        Peadbody Energy stock is highly correlated with coal price...





        I would agree to say that the competitive advantage of coal vs Nat gaz that had been distorted temporarily by nat gaz fracking hype will at some point become obvious again.

        But how BTU compares to Alliance for instance?
        In a world where conflicts, sanctions can occur, having a company exposed internationally worries me. It could be a disadvantage since it is exposed to more unpredictable events. Any thought about this Raz ? Have you bought BTU yourself ?
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        • #19
          Re: Coal

          Originally posted by chene View Post
          Thanks Raz !
          You're very welcome.

          Originally posted by chene View Post
          We are near the last low in coal price.
          I wouldn't hold onto that premise until there is at least clear technical evidence of it.
          At the present time Coal is simply not competitive with NatGas below $4.00.

          See the pages I extracted from the Wells Fargo research report (the entire report was far too large to upload).


          Originally posted by chene View Post
          Peadbody Energy stock is highly correlated with coal price...
          And it should be.





          I would agree to say that the competitive advantage of coal vs Nat gaz that had been distorted temporarily by nat gaz fracking hype will at some point become obvious again.

          Originally posted by chene View Post
          But how BTU compares to Alliance for instance?
          In a world where conflicts, sanctions can occur, having a company exposed internationally worries me. It could be a disadvantage since it is exposed to more unpredictable events. Any thought about this Raz ? Have you bought BTU yourself ?
          None of the sources I have for equity research cover ARLP but ValueLine has a brief report on the company.
          It appears to be a well managed MLP in an industry being euthanized by our ecologically "enlightened", economically stupid administration.
          The Chinese are not going to kill off their coal industry no matter how loudly the AGW crowd scream.

          I haven't bought BTU or any other coal stocks because I could never see any definitive evidence that their downtrend had ended.

          Anything that's cheap for a clear reason can always get cheaper.
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          • #20
            Re: Coal

            Thanks for your interesting feedback

            When I said "We are near the last low in coal price", I mean the last previous bottom of the commodity price
            [ Market Vectors Coal ETF (KOL) : last bottom ( nov 2008: ~ 11$) / we are now at ~ 13,7 $ from > 50$ ]

            But anyway, you read my mind since I wonder if t
            here is not a clear possibility for a natural gas price increase within a few month that will open a new era for coal. Why ?
            I can help myself to notice that nat gas rings count are very low on a historical perspective.
            The depletion rate of nat gas wells is at about 50% the first years so adjustment can be fast...
            After the nat gas hype and the current fracking oil shake, financiers will be more cautious and the flow of money will dry up in the sector...


            rings.jpg Ring_shortterm.jpg


            Nevertheless, the timing is critical and always difficult to master...
            It is probably more cautious to see first evidence of price increase, indeed...


            Originally posted by Raz View Post
            Anything that's cheap for a clear reason can always get cheaper.


            It has always to be reminded...

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