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Gold in 2014 - 2015

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  • Gold in 2014 - 2015

    Interesting pattern forming on the daily chart of December 2014 Comex Gold.
    No clear near-term direction as yet from Mr. Market, but price action appears neutral at best.

    Attached is a chart I created this evening.
    Attached Files

  • #2
    Re: Gold in 2014 - 2015

    As alway, Raz, thanks for the technical chart.

    Comment


    • #3
      Re: Gold in 2014 - 2015

      Thanks Raz, my back of the envelope has a fair price of gold around 1280. I will dollar cost average into it, if it breaks below that price.

      The Author is crazy hedging 100% of his gold. All it takes is for Ukraine, Syria, Gaza, South China Sea, .... you name it, to escalate to the next level
      and gold and oil could go to the moon in a heartbeat. A hedge on gold eliminates the insurance that it offers. I was hedging at gold 1800 (out of the money calls on gld)
      but not my entire position, and gold would have to actually increase more for me to be called out.

      Comment


      • #4
        Re: Gold in 2014 - 2015

        Originally posted by charliebrown View Post
        ...The Author is crazy hedging 100% of his gold. All it takes is for Ukraine, Syria, Gaza, South China Sea, .... you name it, to escalate to the next level and gold and oil could go to the moon in a heartbeat...
        You'll get no argument from my wife. She knows the guy better than anyone else and tells him he's crazy all the time!

        If we wake up tomorrow morning to the news that a fierce gun battle is underway in Riyadh amid reports that much of the royal family is dead then it's likely crude would be trading north of $150.00. But I doubt that gold would be up 40% overnight - unless the Saudi military and household guard was behind the coup.

        Anyway, that's what STOP orders are for.

        Comment


        • #5
          Re: Gold in 2014 - 2015

          An updated bar chart with commentary on this past week's trading in Comex Gold is attached.
          Attached Files

          Comment


          • #6
            Re: Gold in 2014 - 2015

            Originally posted by Raz View Post
            Interesting pattern forming on the daily chart of December 2014 Comex Gold.
            No clear near-term direction as yet from Mr. Market, but price action appears neutral at best.

            Attached is a chart I created this evening.

            Thank you Raz...always nice to get the reason behind my reluctance to sell just now.

            Comment


            • #7
              Re: Gold in 2014 - 2015

              Originally posted by Raz View Post
              Interesting pattern forming on the daily chart of December 2014 Comex Gold.
              No clear near-term direction as yet from Mr. Market, but price action appears neutral at best.

              Attached is a chart I created this evening.
              I think gold is not a good buy right now. Wait a bit and see. Louise Yamada has predicted something like 600 $ gold - if I'm not wrong. I just read an interview.

              Comment


              • #8
                Re: Gold in 2014 - 2015

                This just posted and because of where the precious metals are at this juncture in time - I'm posting it.

                This is real technical analysis; it's not easy reading, but the effort to understand it is usually very rewarding.

                PLEASE don't pass this around the internet!
                Attached Files

                Comment


                • #9
                  Re: Gold in 2014 - 2015

                  Originally posted by Raz View Post

                  This is real technical analysis; it's not easy reading, but the effort to understand it is usually very rewarding.

                  PLEASE don't pass this around the internet!

                  thank you so much for sharing Raz!

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Re: Gold in 2014 - 2015

                    Originally posted by mkeplinger View Post
                    thank you so much for sharing Raz!
                    You're welcome.

                    Here's another report using technical chart work from Goldman Sachs. It covers the Bonar, Yen and Gold.

                    I don't know if this guy is good but his charts of the US Dollar ("Bonar") and Gold look similar to some of my work.
                    And he does, after all, work for the Vampire Squid.


                    If the Dollar continues to climb, Gold will go lower.
                    Attached Files

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Re: Gold in 2014 - 2015

                      Is it the dollar or the oil price that relates to gold? Or, are they one in the same?

                      If the floor for oil is ~ $70, what is the extraction cost of gold?

                      I remember reading numbers that it cost $1200 dollars to get gold bullion out of the ground... That was when oil was over $100. Since oil dropped 30%, what is the average cost of extraction? Has it dropped commensurately?

                      Finster's charts seem to bear out a low in early spring, which seems to match up . Thanks

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Re: Gold in 2014 - 2015

                        aha, i have an answer for you $100 dollars per oz is the embedded price of oil in gold.
                        Here is a link to the article. So, if that is true and the gold extraction cost is around 1200 then the oil is about 8% of of that. So if Oil falls 30%. Then that only reduces the oil cost of gold by 3%. i.e. the extraction cost would fall to 1170

                        http://srsroccoreport.com/the-gold-o...rice-for-gold/

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Re: Gold in 2014 - 2015

                          http://srsroccoreport.com/the-gold-o...rice-for-gold/

                          The majority of the diesel used by these mining companies is in the extraction of the gold ore. A small percentage of overall diesel consumption is used in construction of mine sites as well as a source of electric generation in remote locations when electricity is not available.

                          In 2010, the top 5 gold miners produced 24.7 million oz of gold consuming 18.7 gallons of diesel per ounce to do so. If we go by the U.S. price of a gallon of diesel in 2010 ($2.99), these top gold miners spent $1.38 billion for this fuel cost. Thus, it took approximately $55.91 in diesel-fuel costs per ounce of gold to extract the ore.
                          interesting stats, these are, eh CB ?
                          eye note the prices in the wild wild west - aka mining country - are coming down fast

                          altho not nearly fast enuf to help the miners much, but we seem to be coming down to a bottom (even faster...)

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Re: Gold in 2014 - 2015

                            Originally posted by lektrode View Post
                            interesting stats, these are, eh CB ?
                            eye note the prices in the wild wild west - aka mining country - are coming down fast

                            altho not nearly fast enuf to help the miners much, but we seem to be coming down to a bottom (even faster...)
                            The author was using a US diesel price, yet those miners don't use diesel in the U.S. and diesel prices vary by a wide margin where it is used (mainly Africa). Miners also work out deals with the authorities on long term supply contracts and sometimes seek to hedge their diesel price exposure, also not accounted for.
                            --ST (aka steveaustin2006)

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Re: Gold in 2014 - 2015

                              Originally posted by steveaustin2006 View Post
                              The author was using a US diesel price, yet those miners don't use diesel in the U.S. and diesel prices vary by a wide margin where it is used (mainly Africa). Miners also work out deals with the authorities on long term supply contracts and sometimes seek to hedge their diesel price exposure, also not accounted for.
                              always appreciate these insights, steve!
                              so while the drop in fuel price will help some in mining costs, in the shorter term its not likely to have much effect on the miners bottom lines?

                              Comment

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