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  • #76
    Re: Gold's rally, S&P Breakdown, Currencies etc.

    Originally posted by shiny! View Post
    Gold at $1083.90 and Silver at $14.28. Ratio is 1:75.9

    If inflation ever takes off that ratio will shrink. Is anybody buying at these prices, either gold, or silver with the intention of swapping it for gold when the ratio goes down?

    IS inflation ever going to take off, or will gold and silver stay low for decades?
    i think we'd have to see more deflation/contraction/recession bad enough to evoke more extreme measures than prior rounds of qe. ka-poom on at least a minor scale. so gold could go lower along with oil and other commodities until the various politico-economic authorities around the world get scared enough.

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    • #77
      Re: Gold's rally, S&P Breakdown, Currencies etc.

      Originally posted by jk View Post
      i think we'd have to see more deflation/contraction/recession bad enough to evoke more extreme measures than prior rounds of qe. ka-poom on at least a minor scale. so gold could go lower along with oil and other commodities until the various politico-economic authorities around the world get scared enough.
      What would make them scared enough? I'm starting to wonder if, instead of a catastrophic ka-POOM scenario, sans a black swan event we might just have a slow, grim grind for decades.

      Do people always know a black swan when they see one? Or is it only in retrospect that they say, "Oh, that's what started it."
      Thinking of Paris... what might gold do on Monday?

      Be kinder than necessary because everyone you meet is fighting some kind of battle.

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      • #78
        Re: Gold's rally, S&P Breakdown, Currencies etc.

        Originally posted by shiny! View Post
        What would make them scared enough? I'm starting to wonder if, instead of a catastrophic ka-POOM scenario, sans a black swan event we might just have a slow, grim grind for decades.

        Do people always know a black swan when they see one? Or is it only in retrospect that they say, "Oh, that's what started it."
        Thinking of Paris... what might gold do on Monday?
        it could be a grim grind. look at japan for the last 25 years. i would guess we need the economy to slow markedly, unemployment and weekly claims up sharply and so on. with rates already on the floor what can the monetary and fiscal authorities do?

        ps i'll be surprised if the paris attacks do anything to gold. if anything there might be a boost to the dollar and gold would drop a bit.

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        • #79
          Re: Gold's rally, S&P Breakdown, Currencies etc.

          Originally posted by jk View Post
          it could be a grim grind. look at japan for the last 25 years. i would guess we need the economy to slow markedly, unemployment and weekly claims up sharply and so on. with rates already on the floor what can the monetary and fiscal authorities do?

          ps i'll be surprised if the paris attacks do anything to gold. if anything there might be a boost to the dollar and gold would drop a bit.
          Supposedly in 11 years every penny of tax revenues collected will go to pay the interest on the debt. If that's true, I don't see how a grim grind will take us up to that point and beyond. Can we really plod through it with no one noticing that there's no money to pay for stuff?

          Be kinder than necessary because everyone you meet is fighting some kind of battle.

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          • #80
            Re: Gold's rally, S&P Breakdown, Currencies etc.

            Originally posted by jk View Post
            ....with rates already on the floor what can the monetary and fiscal authorities do?

            ....
            well, eye was under the impression that had already been worked out... in 2002?

            heeere's dave:

            Well, time to come up with a different tool. Here’s Citi:

            We now think that the move to central banks endorsing fiscal policy and essentially monetizing the added spending will be relatively quick and direct, in the event of a sudden slump in the global activity.
            When we wrote earlier on this subject we arrived at fiscal after other alternatives had been exhausted, but we now think it can be managed within the current monetary policy framework of most central banks.


            Yes, the chopper.


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