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We are now one year away from global riots, complex systems theorists say

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  • We are now one year away from global riots, complex systems theorists say

    I am not a big believer in 'climate change', but I do certainly believe that weather swings may be changing due to sun and ocean actions. And with global food stores at lows in some important commodities, I have no doubt what is proposed below may well occur.

    http://www.kurzweilai.net/we-are-now...m_medium=email



    (Credit: Marco Lagi, Karla Z. Bertrand, Yaneer Bar-Yam)

    What’s the number one reason we riot? Hunger — food becoming too scarce or too expensive. So argues a group of complex systems theorists in Cambridge, and it makes sense, Motherboard reports.

    In a 2011 paper, researchers at the Complex Systems Institute (CSI) unveiled a model that accurately explained why the waves of unrest that swept the world in 2008 and 2011 crashed when they did. The number one determinant was soaring food prices. Their model identified a precise threshold for global food prices that, if breached, would lead to worldwide unrest.

    Technology Review explains how CSI’s model works: “The evidence comes from two sources. The first is data gathered by the United Nations that plots the price of food against time, the so-called food price index of the Food and Agriculture Organisation of the UN. The second is the date of riots around the world, whatever their cause.” Plot the data, and it looks like this the above graph.

    Black dots are the food prices, red lines are the riots. In other words, whenever the UN’s food price index, which measures the monthly change in the price of a basket of food commodities, climbs above 210, the conditions ripen for social unrest around the world. For billions of people around the world, food comprises up to 80% of routine expenses. When prices jump, people can’t afford anything else; or even food itself. And if you can’t eat — or worse, your family can’t eat — you fight.

    Today, the food price index is hovering around 213, where it has stayed for months — just beyond the tip of the identified threshold. Low corn yield in the U.S., the world’s most important producer, has helped keep prices high.

    “Recent droughts in the mid-western United States threaten to cause global catastrophe,” Yaneer Bar-Yam, one of the authors of the report, recently told Al Jazeera. “When people are unable to feed themselves and their families, widespread social disruption occurs. We are on the verge of another crisis, the third in five years, and likely to be the worst yet, capable of causing new food riots and turmoil on a par with the Arab Spring.”

    Even before the extreme weather scrambled food prices this year, CSI’s 2011 report predicted that the next great breach would occur in August 2013, and that the risk of more worldwide rioting would follow.

    But the reality is that such predictions are now all but impossible to make. In a world well-warmed by climate change, unpredictable, extreme weather events like the drought that has consumed 60% of the United States and the record heat that has killed its cattle are now the norm. Just two years ago, heat waves in Russia crippled its grain yield and dealt a devastating blow to global food markets — the true, unheralded father of the Arab Spring was global warming, some say.

    And it’s only going to get worse and worse and worse. Because of climate change-exacerbated disasters like these, “the average price of staple foods such as maize could more than double in the next 20 years compared with 2010 trend prices,” a new report from Oxfam reveals. That report details how the poor will be even more vulnerable to climate change-induced food price shocks than previously thought. After all, we’ve “loaded the climate dice,” as NASA’s James Hansen likes to say, and the chances of such disasters rolling out are greater than ever.

  • #2
    Re: We are now one year away from global riots, complex systems theorists say

    Originally posted by doom&gloom View Post
    I am not a big believer in 'climate change', but I do certainly believe that weather swings may be changing due to sun and ocean actions. And with global food stores at lows in some important commodities, I have no doubt what is proposed below may well occur....

    the question becomes, what sets it off this time ?
    Black dots are the food prices, red lines are the riots. In other words, whenever the UN’s food price index, which measures the monthly change in the price of a basket of food commodities, climbs above 210, the conditions ripen for social unrest around the world. For billions of people around the world, food comprises up to 80% of routine expenses. When prices jump, people can’t afford anything else; or even food itself. And if you can’t eat — or worse, your family can’t eat — you fight.

    Today, the food price index is hovering around 213, where it has stayed for months — just beyond the tip of the identified threshold. Low corn yield in the U.S., the world’s most important producer, has helped keep prices high.

    “Recent droughts in the mid-western United States threaten to cause global catastrophe,” Yaneer Bar-Yam, one of the authors of the report, recently told Al Jazeera. “When people are unable to feed themselves and their families, widespread social disruption occurs. We are on the verge of another crisis, the third in five years, and likely to be the worst yet, capable of causing new food riots and turmoil on a par with the Arab Spring.”...
    am noting quite a jump lately at the supers...

    Comment


    • #3
      Re: We are now one year away from global riots, complex systems theorists say

      Originally posted by lektrode View Post
      am noting quite a jump lately at the supers...
      Grocery prices are a whole different animal, since you are now building in transpost and processing costs, and more transport costs, plus marketing costs, potential shelf space kickback costs, increasing labor costs, etc. but yeah, it is going up.

      Amazingly some stuff is still pretty cheap if you do the sale items. We have teenagers, ie. "locusts", who roam the kitchen regularly looking for food. I buy lots of cheap TV style dinner for them to microwave on 2-3 minutes and chow down on, and when on sale I can often get them in groups of 10 with pricing as low as $2/ea for "good" meals. Then again you can buy crap for as low as a buck, amazingly.

      This year meat prices will still be reasonable, but next year you will see quite a spike in beef and pork. Got a freezer? Load up this year.

      Comment


      • #4
        Re: We are now one year away from global riots, complex systems theorists say

        Originally posted by doom&gloom View Post
        Grocery prices are a whole different animal, since you are now building in transpost and processing costs, and more transport costs, plus marketing costs, potential shelf space kickback costs, increasing labor costs, etc. but yeah, it is going up.

        Amazingly some stuff is still pretty cheap if you do the sale items. We have teenagers, ie. "locusts", who roam the kitchen regularly looking for food. I buy lots of cheap TV style dinner for them to microwave on 2-3 minutes and chow down on, and when on sale I can often get them in groups of 10 with pricing as low as $2/ea for "good" meals. Then again you can buy crap for as low as a buck, amazingly.

        This year meat prices will still be reasonable, but next year you will see quite a spike in beef and pork. Got a freezer? Load up this year.
        in our home we won't keep a freezer full of meat from 2012... or a buried tank of gasoline from 2001... instead...

        instead of... we got...



        instead of... we got...



        oh, so much easier & cheaper to store!

        Comment


        • #5
          Re: We are now one year away from global riots, complex systems theorists say

          Here is the Itulip thread from 2011:
          The Cause Of Riots And The Price of Food

          Comment


          • #6
            Re: We are now one year away from global riots, complex systems theorists say

            and then.... just as those of us boyz of a certain age confront the LowT syndrome (with she saying..."if you didnt fall asleep on the couch every night...." because television-induced narcolepsy sets in due to keynesian-economist insomnia-driven attention-deficit-disorder keeps us that way...) - we get a bit of insight on where the next slug of 'subdued inflationary pressure-led money printing' will take us as china's bubble-balloon gets tighter and tighter...

            we find this one, over at the Testosterone Pit:

            Originally posted by TP/C.Street

            China’s New Stimulus Will Unleash Inflation

            Tuesday, September 11, 2012 at 11:05AM
            Contributed by Chriss Street. Specialist in corporate reorganizations and turnarounds, former Chairman of two NYSE listed companies. His latest book, The Third Way, describes how to achieve management excellence and financial reward by moving organizations from Conflict and Confrontation to Leadership and Cooperation. Chriss lives in Newport Beach, CA.
            We have been warning that China’s current economic slowdown signals that the country China has entered the “Middle Income Trap” that will mark the end of the nation’s 30 years of 10% compounded annual growth. With inflation having already driven Chinese wages up to uncompetitive levels, manufacturing and construction activities are plummeting. Desperate to try to stave off up a spectacular increase in unemployment, China just announced another massive public works stimulus program to try to revive to at least the 8% growth rate necessary to create enough jobs for the millions of young people entering the workforce each year. Although shoveling cash at the problem might have delayed a recession after 2008, new stimulus cash will ignite a vicious round of inflation and fail to drive sustained economic growth.
            China’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth has fallen from 8% to 3% over the last year according to Xinhua News Agency. Consistent with a slowing economy, China’s reported consumer prices only rose by 2.7% for each of the last two years. But official inflation rates notoriously understate the inflation the people suffer, since the government subsidizes key goods and services such as utilities, energy and public transport that make up a big chunk of the consumer price index (CPI).
            The actual inflation the Chinese people have been experiencing is on a tear. The rental price for an apartment in the southern China industrial city of Guangzhou rose 10% in the last year according to Centaline Property Research. Starbucks, which is opening one new store every four days, raised prices by 8% this year to an equivalent of $4.20 for a “tall latte”. Food prices are just beginning to accelerate as “official food prices index” rose in August at a 12% annualized rate. Over the last year, private-sector wages have risen by 18.3%, many provinces have granted workers double-digit compensation increases, and a survey of 4,242 employers by Manpower Group reports labor conditions remain tight.
            The Central Publicity Department of the Communist Party of China recently disclosed that from 2005 to 2010, urban residents’ income surged to 137% higher than rural dwellers and continues growing 10 times faster. With rural migrants comprising one third of the 665 million people living in Chinese cities; any economic decline would cause massive unemployment for these “temporary” workers.
            The 2008-2009 Great Recession caused exports to shrink over 50%. China’s leaders panicked that 100 million migrants might become unemployed and ordered an epic $586 billion of stimulus spending on state owned enterprises (SOEs), driving new investment as a percentage of the economy from 42% to 50% of GDP last year.
            The problem is that no country can be productive enough to reinvest 50% of GDP in new manufacturing plants, capital equipment and infrastructure without eventually creating immense overcapacity and a staggering level of non-performing loans. Chinese productivity has actually declined, since private sector companies have not been eligible to receive stimulus loans and grants.
            A significant amount of the spending also was systematically squandered in kickbacks and outright theft. According to CNN, in 2011 four bridges collapsed from mudslides in the span of a week. At a bridge near Chongqing, a city of 32 million, 40 people fell 460 feet to their deaths. Investigations uncovered kickbacks, thefts and money used to build a hostess bar. Philosopher John Stuart Mill warned of crony capitalism 150 years ago:
            "A government with all this mass of favors to give or to withhold, however free in name, wields a power of bribery scarcely surpassed by an avowed autocracy, rendering it master of the elections in almost any circumstances but those of rare and extraordinary public excitement."
            The last stimulus was so big it funded a 50% increase in crude steel capacity, doubled aluminum capacity and tripled cement capacity. China now dominates the world with 46% of steel, 41% of aluminum and 60% of cement production capability. This new industrial might furnished the materials to build dozens of sleek empty airports, with 45 more planed; a new bullet-train system, wracked lately with financial, corruption and safety scandals; hundreds of highways, to nowhere; thousands of colossal government buildings and numerous residential ghost towns, that will never be inhabited.
            Institutional investors have not been fooled by China’s stimulus spending. China’s Shanghai stock market has plunged by -86% since 2008, and it remains the only major stock market in the world that is down this year. The last Chinese stimulus program delayed a Chinese recession for the last three years, but it made China less competitive by destroying the private sector, creating massive over-capacity of state-owned-enterprises and inflating away Chin’s historic wage advantages.
            The new “Five-Year Plan” stimulus promises to increase the consumer share of the economy; but a close inspection reveals China continues to try to grow their economy on export-led industrialization and an under-valued currency. In the short run, the investment boom will fuel inflation misery for the population, but price inflation and overcapacity will inevitably lead to a deflationary cycle.

            Cross-posted from Chriss Street's blog
            .

            Comment


            • #7
              Re: We are now one year away from global riots, complex systems theorists say

              Originally posted by metalman View Post
              in our home we won't keep a freezer full of meat from 2012... or a buried tank of gasoline from 2001... instead...

              instead of... we got...



              instead of... we got...
              I hope you're right . . . .

              But keep in mind that who ultimately controls is this guy . . . .





              Gold is wealth, and what the government really wants is your wealth. Who knows how far they'll go to get it . . . .
              raja
              Boycott Big Banks • Vote Out Incumbents

              Comment


              • #8
                Re: We are now one year away from global riots, complex systems theorists say

                Why one must be diversified into... Silver too! And farmland.

                Comment


                • #9
                  Re: We are now one year away from global riots, complex systems theorists say

                  redacted
                  Last edited by nedtheguy; 10-09-14, 05:13 PM.

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Re: We are now one year away from global riots, complex systems theorists say

                    Originally posted by doom&gloom View Post
                    Why one must be diversified into... Silver too! And farmland.
                    I agree on the farmland . . . but can you say more about silver . . . .

                    Silver also was confiscated by the goverment . . . .
                    Executive Order 6102 is an Executive Order signed on April 5, 1933, by U.S. President Franklin D. Roosevelt "forbidding the Hoarding of Gold Coin, Gold Bullion, and Gold Certificates within the continental United States". The order criminalized the possession of monetary gold by any individual, partnership, association or corporation.The order was rationalized on the grounds that hard times had caused "hoarding" of gold, stalling economic growth and making the depression worse.
                    On March 6, taking advantage of a wartime statute that had not been repealed, he issued Presidential Proclamation 2039 that forbade the hoarding 'of gold or silver coin or bullion or currency,' under penalty of $10,000 and/or up to five to ten years imprisonment."


                    Silver is more of a commodity than gold, and can suffer under demand-starved economy, such as we are in now. Gold is more of a storehouse of wealth, held by Central Banks, and thus is more likely to rise in fiat collapse.

                    I'm not saying some silver isn't good to have . . . but I'd like to hear your rationale.

                    The advantage of farmland is that you can raise food, so storage is not required. Still, storage is a convenience, especially if you are butchering a large animal.
                    I use freezers to store the animals we slaughter, but I've also got lots of canning jars for preserving in the event of TEOTWAWKI

                    raja
                    Boycott Big Banks • Vote Out Incumbents

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Re: We are now one year away from global riots, complex systems theorists say

                      I have become a become a big believer in ABCD, Anything bernanke Cannot Destroy.

                      My rationale for farmland exists in a longer thesis I have put up on iTulip several times now. From a "store of value" theme, you own something productive that, theoretically, should keep up in pricing fairly well with monetary inflation and currency debasement. And unlike a house, it is a productive asset that provides one of the FEW (food, energy,water) which every living thing on the planet needs. Thus my farmland investment is built around the idea that I have a place to go (outside the US) that will never let me go hungry and is not easily confiscated by the US government.

                      My rationale for silver is that, unlike in the past, silver is no longer a monetary instrument in either the US or the world. It is still a relatively rare material, but still abundant enough to be used as 'money'. It also has the function of the "poor man's gold" for those who want to own a precious metal but find gold too pricey to bite off. I would expect that if gold were confiscated, silver would be ignored, and thus escalate in price as the 'fall back' money after gold. I could be wrong, who knows... we are all just doing our best to try and outguess potential future irrationality.

                      Finally, I do not spend my days thinking TEOTWAWKI is coming anytime soon here in the US. I see no reason not to be 'prepped' for an emergency, but putting up 6 months of food for each family member is probably alittle over the top. If you become a target, you can be shot out, burned out, smoked out, whatever and all that prep goes for nada unless you have a 'place in the hills' that is easily defended by you and your neighbors. Most people do not have such a place.

                      Even when Argentina went completely bust, things kept functioning to some extent. Yes, some people had some VERY hard times, but they made it thru -- no mass starvations etc.

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Re: We are now one year away from global riots, complex systems theorists say

                        Originally posted by doom&gloom View Post
                        My rationale for silver is that, unlike in the past, silver is no longer a monetary instrument in either the US or the world. It is still a relatively rare material, but still abundant enough to be used as 'money'. It also has the function of the "poor man's gold" for those who want to own a precious metal but find gold too pricey to bite off. I would expect that if gold were confiscated, silver would be ignored, and thus escalate in price as the 'fall back' money after gold. I could be wrong, who knows... we are all just doing our best to try and outguess potential future irrationality.
                        If silver were not confiscated, it might be a good store of wealth.
                        But why do you think it would not be confiscated? It was by FDR . . . . .

                        The motivation of the government is to eliminate any competition to it's fiat. If silver became a susseccful competitor, that might trigger confiscation . . . .
                        raja
                        Boycott Big Banks • Vote Out Incumbents

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Re: We are now one year away from global riots, complex systems theorists say

                          Climate Change be damned, what we do have is an apparent low in the solar cycle.

                          Rather than temperatures being too hot - which historically have led to drought in some traditional farming areas, but equally opened up new areas for farming (see Vikings in Greenland) or allowed previously uneconomic crops to thrive in existing marginal farmland (see wine in England) - a solar low has historical links to low temperatures. Nothing much grows on ice.

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                          • #14
                            Re: We are now one year away from global riots, complex systems theorists say

                            Originally posted by raja View Post
                            If silver were not confiscated, it might be a good store of wealth.
                            But why do you think it would not be confiscated? It was by FDR . . . . .

                            The motivation of the government is to eliminate any competition to it's fiat. If silver became a susseccful competitor, that might trigger confiscation . . . .
                            Think a little deeper on this and you will see that the government did not want silver "hoarded", but they never pulled it from circulation either.

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