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  • Oops, El Nino is back

    El Nino is returning and the 1998 high may finally give in. I'm sure deniers will have a new tack for the next 16 years.

    http://www.theguardian.com/environme...science-agency

  • #2
    Re: Oops, El Nino is back

    Do you know what effect it will have on rainfall patterns?

    Be kinder than necessary because everyone you meet is fighting some kind of battle.

    Comment


    • #3
      Re: Oops, El Nino is back

      It's all a lie:

      http://www.express.co.uk/news/nature...hannel-founder

      Yet another tax and control scam.

      It's lost virtually any public support:

      http://www.pewresearch.org/key-data-...-pew-research/

      Comment


      • #4
        Re: Oops, El Nino is back

        Originally posted by vt View Post

        It's lost virtually any public support:

        http://www.pewresearch.org/key-data-...-pew-research/
        and we all know that truth is determined by poll numbers. it's what we call the scientific method. and luckily it won't matter if we're wrong on this, anyway.

        Comment


        • #5
          Re: Oops, El Nino is back

          Originally posted by shiny! View Post
          Do you know what effect it will have on rainfall patterns?
          Like New Mexico, it should be good for "Hades" in the short term. Warmer Pacific means more moisture moving over the Southwest.

          Comment


          • #6
            Re: Oops, El Nino is back

            Originally posted by vt View Post
            It's all a lie
            Yet another tax and control scam.
            It's lost virtually any public support
            I'll give you point 2 vt, anything big will be abused. It's like war, the scammers will show up and steal as much as possible but it's not valid to offer someone's opinion or a poll to refute science. If your argument is that all global warming science is a conspiracy and not science, then fair enough, you can refute it with opinion and polls but we have nothing to discuss and will have to just agree to disagree.

            Comment


            • #7
              Re: Oops, El Nino is back

              Originally posted by santafe2 View Post
              Like New Mexico, it should be good for "Hades" in the short term. Warmer Pacific means more moisture moving over the Southwest.
              Thanks. I'll take it!

              Be kinder than necessary because everyone you meet is fighting some kind of battle.

              Comment


              • #8
                Re: Oops, El Nino is back

                Santefe: Can you address this article? It seems the sun has also been at its maximum during this year, and it is also been going strong recently.

                We will in all likelihood (if you believe scientists) be getting less radiation from the sun over the next 10 years than we are receiving now.

                Sunspots 2014: Big sunspot jump a harbinger of coming cooling
                http://www.commdiginews.com/news-2/sunspots-2014-big-sunspot-jump-a-harbinger-of-coming-cooling-28078/



                http://solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/predict.shtml

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                • #9
                  Re: Oops, El Nino is back

                  Originally posted by aaron View Post
                  Santefe: Can you address this article? It seems the sun has also been at its maximum during this year, and it is also been going strong recently.

                  We will in all likelihood (if you believe scientists) be getting less radiation from the sun over the next 10 years than we are receiving now.

                  Sunspots 2014: Big sunspot jump a harbinger of coming cooling
                  http://www.commdiginews.com/news-2/s...cooling-28078/



                  http://solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/predict.shtml
                  I'll address it. The author is not a scientist. He jumps from the 11-year sunspot cycle, to predicting a 20+ year cooling trend on Earth. There is no connection.

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Re: Oops, El Nino is back

                    Originally posted by aaron View Post
                    Santefe: Can you address this article? It seems the sun has also been at its maximum during this year, and it is also been going strong recently.

                    We will in all likelihood (if you believe scientists) be getting less radiation from the sun over the next 10 years than we are receiving now.
                    peakishmael's assessment of the issue may be a bit over simplified but he's essentially correct. Sunspot activity plays a very small role compared to atmospheric CO2. The writer is comparing cooling in the early 18th century when CO2 was ~280 PPM. Today it is about 400 PPM, (a little less now that summer in the Northern Hemisphere has helped lower the peak from last winter).

                    The generally warmer temperatures we're experiencing today are the result of CO2 ~350 from the mid 1980s. It takes several decades for an increase in CO2 to manifest itself in higher atmospheric temperatures. Over the next three decades we'll feel the effects of today's ~400 PPM. At the present rate of increase we should be at 460-470PPM in 30 years.

                    Scientists refer to sunspots and CO2 as climate forcings. The first is a small one and is natural. The second is quite large and is human caused. Sunspot forcing is cyclical, is quite well documented and well understood. With CO2, we're creating a grand experiment with a large climate force for warming. The forcing is well understood but the outcome, unfortunately, is not. We know it's going to be bad, but how bad, or when, is still open to debate.

                    An example of a large natural forcing is the El Nino cycle, (ENSO). It's really only been the last decade where scientists have understood what a truly large force the El Nino cycle can be. C02 provided the tools for the large El Nino to drive atmospheric heat up sharply in 1998 and apparently the mild El Nino of 2014 will be the first to take the world to a new record since then, (we'll know in January 2015). The next big El Nino will bring the next round of much higher temperatures. Between this natural forcing and additional CO2, lower solar activity will not offer noticeable relief.

                    As you read articles that hard sell or soft sell climate warming denial it's important to understand the 5 stages because you'll always see one or more of them in every article.
                    It's not happening.
                    It's not us.
                    It's not a problem.
                    It's too big, or to expensive, a problem.
                    It's too late.

                    I've been pleasantly surprised that smart Republican politicians have completely backed away from climate denial in the 2014 elections. Mitch McConnell and several other Republicans will only say, "I'm not a scientist.". This comment or another like it are usually followed by comments about how important it is to protect the environment with concrete examples from their own lives. With almost all politicians you never know how they really feel because polls drive what they say but it's still nice to see them moving in the right direction.

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Re: Oops, El Nino is back

                      Originally posted by santafe2 View Post
                      .... With almost all politicians you never know how they really feel because polls drive what they say but it's still nice to see them moving in the right direction.
                      +1
                      and we'll know when they are really moving in the right direction when we see them start talking about - SERIOUSLY talking about - dumping coal from the energy equation - and NOT just talking about 'carbon pricing' schemes, ala al gore&co's either (and as much as i'm an 'alternative' energy proponent, PV, windmills and 'conservation' simply arent going to get us where we need to be - read: with the roads all choked up with 'zero emission' vehicles)

                      but there's increasing chatter about the next el nino - tho apparently still in the 'mild but hopeful' column -

                      but some are more than hopeful its going to be a good(big) one -

                      altho the latest forecast suggests it may not work out the best for some of us who are chomping at the bit for one

                      ;)

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Re: Oops, El Nino is back

                        Originally posted by peakishmael View Post
                        I'll address it. The author is not a scientist. He jumps from the 11-year sunspot cycle, to predicting a 20+ year cooling trend on Earth. There is no connection.
                        And most of us here aren't ivy league PHD economists, yet it does not stop us from critiquing the theories, actions and failed policies of those "expert, pedigreed, and every so confident social "SCIENTISTs" (e.g., CB economists)who make it up as they go along and resort to similar ad hominem attacks when called out for the blatan failure of their predictions to materialize. Geez

                        Wonder what Richard Feynman would say ... a man who would acknowledge that he could be wrong - ah, the humility is so refreshing as it is rare today

                        Last edited by vinoveri; 10-25-14, 07:39 PM.

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                        • #13
                          Re: Oops, El Nino is back

                          http://stevengoddard.wordpress.com/2...ear-on-record/

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                          • #14
                            Re: Oops, El Nino is back

                            Thanks, vt!

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Re: Oops, El Nino is back

                              Thanks santafe2, for once again breaking this down so clearly.

                              All I have to add is a touch of humor. When I saw your simple breakdown:

                              Originally posted by santafe2 View Post
                              As you read articles that hard sell or soft sell climate warming denial it's important to understand the 5 stages because you'll always see one or more of them in every article.
                              It's not happening.
                              It's not us.
                              It's not a problem.
                              It's too big, or to expensive, a problem.
                              It's too late.
                              I thought of this "Yes, Prime Minister" bit:

                              Originally posted by "Yes, Prime Minister: A Victory for Democracy (#1.6)" (1986)
                              Bernard Woolley: What if the Prime Minister insists we help them?
                              Sir Humphrey Appleby: Then we follow the four-stage strategy.
                              Bernard Woolley: What's that?
                              Sir Richard Wharton: Standard Foreign Office response in a time of crisis.
                              Sir Richard Wharton: In stage one we say nothing is going to happen.
                              Sir Humphrey Appleby: Stage two, we say something may be about to happen, but we should do nothing about it.
                              Sir Richard Wharton: In stage three, we say that maybe we should do something about it, but there's nothing we *can* do.
                              Sir Humphrey Appleby: Stage four, we say maybe there was something we could have done, but it's too late now.
                              It is at times surprising just how simple and universal obstructionism can be. But perhaps it is more surprising that it can be so successful, even while being entirely transparent.

                              Originally posted by santafe2 View Post
                              I've been pleasantly surprised that smart Republican politicians have completely backed away from climate denial in the 2014 elections. Mitch McConnell and several other Republicans will only say, "I'm not a scientist.". This comment or another like it are usually followed by comments about how important it is to protect the environment with concrete examples from their own lives. With almost all politicians you never know how they really feel because polls drive what they say but it's still nice to see them moving in the right direction.
                              I hope you're right.

                              Of course, the cynic in me asks: Is it more likely that they are moving in the right direction, or is it more likely that they are following something like the four-stage strategy above, appearing reasonable before the election, while still giving the petroleum lobby everything they want?
                              Last edited by astonas; 10-26-14, 12:41 AM.

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